Alex Ovechkin: 2022-23 season review

Alex Ovechkin needs 72 goals. but he’d probably like his team to be better too.

By the Numbers

For on-ice percentages, 50 percent means even: both teams possess the puck evenly. Higher is better, lower is worse.

Isolated Impact by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties.

Player Card by Evolving Hockey

About this player card: This image from Evolving Hockey shows an overview of the player across different parts of their game. At top right are the players percentile rank (1 is worst; 100 best), overall and on offense and defense separately. Higher numbers are in blue. Below are the player’s contributions in different compartments of the game using the goals-above-replacement or GAR metric. Higher numbers (again in blue) mean the player adds value compared to an average AHL call-up player.

Player Card by Corey Sznajder

About this player card: This image from All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats, especially ones regarding entering and entering zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate of the statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.

Fan Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:

On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?

1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM

The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.

Exit Interview

Peter’s Take

Alex Ovechkin scored 42 goals this season. Any discussion of his year has to begin and end with that fact. For the record: only six of those 42 goals were empty-netters, a drop from the prior season, when Ovechkin tied the NHL record of nine, shared by Pavel Bure back in 2000.

Ovechkin hit that goal total total, the tenth best in the league, despite a recurring lower-body injury and missed time due to a death in the family. Except I’d say the biggest force working against Alex Ovechkin this year was his team. The Caps were outshot and outscored during his five-on-five shifts, and only 20 of his goals came at those times. Ovechkin individually attempted the smallest share of his team’s shots in his entire career – 31 percent. His five-on-five goal rate has dropped in each of the last four seasons, while opponent expected-goal rates skyrocketed – 3.3 per hour up from around 2.5 over the past three seasons.

I think that’s a critical point. Ovechkin’s scoring has dropped a bit, but probably less than you’d expect given his spot on the aging curve. What’s really going wrong is defensive play. Out of 347 forwards, only eight saw opponents get a higher rate of high-danger chances. (Kuznetsov was seven spots better than Ovechkin.)

I think that’s an indication of two things. One is that Ovechkin isn’t a good defensive player, which surprises no one and maybe isn’t even a reasonable expectation. Two is that Ovechkin is not getting the support he needs. His most common linemates last season were Dylan Strome and Conor Sheary, two players I adore but who we could all agree are not ideal for Ovechkin. Ovechkin needs transition-play wizards with great, dangerous passing. I wrote two silly and fantastical posts about how William Nylander and Jesper Bratt would be optimal complements for Ovechkin in his final push for the scoring title. I know those trades would never happen, but the general idea – acquiring a player whose skills will activate Ovechkin – should be the team’s number-one priority this summer.

I don’t mean that as hyperbole. Whatever lip-service we’re pretending to pay to the Promise Strategy, we all know deep down that the Washington Capitals are in the Alex Ovechkin business more than the Stanley Cup business. If they move Mantha or Kuznetsov, the player(s) they get back should be measured on one criterion: can they help Ovi? Backstrom’s, Wilson’s, and Oshie’s recoveries should be evaluated based on their impacts on the Chase. Defensive depth contracts should be signed based on whatever’s left over after making sure Ovi’s getting the linemates he needs. Right now the thing that matters more than anything else is the number 894.

I’m not being cynical. I think that’s a fine and admirable goal for a team. If there’s shame in it, it is because of the orthodoxical groupthink that dominates this league and expects players and teams to pretend they’re making a run for the Cup, even when that’s silly. If Washington’s intention was to win the Cup as soon as possible, they’d have sold off in February and started a rebuild. But Ovechkin is here, and he needs help to score goals.

By the way, he scored 42 goals this season.

Ovi on RMNB

• Gretzky on Ovechkin’s catching him: “when not if”
• Ovi doesn’t drink coffee. Major character flaw.
• Ovechkin had a goal drought (relatively for him) to start the season.
• On Capital One Arena’s ice, not sincerely: “Welcome to Capital One ice. Boards and ice is probably top in the league.”
• He was a clue on Jeopardy.
• Mom watches every game.
• He wants four kids.
• There’s too many broken records to name, but one good one is his passing Gordie Howe for most goals with a single franchise.
• Ray Ferraro said RMNB.
• Alex Semin wants to be part of the all-time goals record entourage.
• High-fiving Sergei (through the glass) after a goal.
• Ovi was nabbing every available empty-net goal for a while.
• In December he played a nearly five-minute shift.
• Then he got a hat trick to hit 800 career goals.
• Kuznetsov on the 800th goal: “You cant buy those moments. That is the memories.”
• Those 800 goals broken down in every stupid way I could think of.
• Checked some guy onto the Leafs bench.
• Ovechkin gave signed sticks to the son of Gordie Howe.
• He officially became the most shootiest player in NHL history.
• With goal number 802, Ovechkin passed Howe.
• Ovechkin and Biscuit: a love story.
• 30th career hat trick. Big hat.
• MAF on playing against Ovechkin: “He brings the best out of you.”
• Laviolette says the coach-killer is actually coachable. Also a yeller.
• At the end of January, Ovechkin missed time with a lower-body injury. He returned soon after but says he was not 100 percent.
• He also said he and Sidney Crosby are good friends and text each other. Hmm.
• Meanwhile, Crosby, smiling, on if he would grab a beer with Ovi at the all-star game: “Oh yeah. We have a lot to catch up on.” Hmm.
• Ovechkin left the team in February upon the death of his father Mikhail at age 71. He returned about a week later.
• On losing Hathaway and Orlov at the deadline: “These guys are like brothers to us.”
• Ted Leonsis promised Ovechkin that the team would be competitive as long as he’s here. That’s going to be tough.
• Ovechkin was not happy about the deadline sell-off.
• In March he made Pheonix Copley the 169th goalie to get scored on by Ovechkin.
• Ovechkin missed time again in March, again with a lower-body injury.
• In April, Ovechkin got ejected from a game.
• Then he missed more games.
• On the season: “Difficult.”
• End on a happy note. Laviolette on Ovechkin: “He’s like Muhammad Ali. He’s like Tom Brady. He’s like Babe Ruth.”

Your Turn

How many goals next season? Forty would be good, right? Downer in me is thinking more like 32.

This article would not be possible without HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones. Please consider joining us in supporting them. For people interested in learning more from those resources, we recently published video walkthroughs.