We kick off the review series with the biggest question of the offseason: what’s the future for Nicklas Backstrom?

By the Numbers

Visualization by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows lots of information for the player over the season. A short description of each chart:

• Most common teammates during 5-on-5
• Ice time per game, split up by game state
• 5-on-5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
• 5-on-5 adjusted shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red)
• Individual scoring events by the player
• 5-on-5 adjusted offensive (black) and defensive (red) zone starts

Fan Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:

On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?

1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM

The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.

Exit Interview

Peter’s Take

We begin the season review series on the bummer tip. Nicklas Backstrom’s season started two months late as he rehabilitated from a hip injury. That’s the same hip he had surgery on seven years ago, the same which he rated as “so-so”, the same for which he’s now considering additional medical interventions.

Backstrom was never the most mobile player, so his recent drop-off in speed has been extra unfortunate, and it’s shown up in his statistics. Backstrom had the lowest on-ice shot attempt percentage (i.e. roughly how much the Caps had the puck) among full-time forwards at 47.1 percent. Factoring in quality with expected goals was worse at 45.8 percent, and actual goals was worse still at 44.6 percent (25 for Washington, 31 for opponents).

Backstrom himself seemed to be carrying the puck less than ever. This is just a rough proxy, but Backstrom drew just two penalties in 822 minutes, shockingly low for a player who’s supposed to be having the puck a lot, at least systems-wise. For comparison, Kuznetsov drew 23 penalties in 1602 minutes, and Eller drew 17 in 1161. For Backstrom, that’s a profound drop, suggesting he’s carrying the puck less, protecting it worse, or both.

The thing we used to say about Backstrom all the time is that he was hard to get off the puck. I’m not sure that’s true anymore. His checkers no longer have to reach to restrain him.

There remains one dimension of Backstrom’s game that I think is untouched. He is still an elite play-maker. He passes like a demon. Only Kuznetsov and Mantha had a higher rate of primary assists. But, frankly, finesse skills alone are not enough to carry a top-six line in the NHL. Even before taking into account his contract (9.2M per year until 2025), it’s hard not to think of Backstrom as a liability. I suspect he himself has the same suspicion.

“The best thing I want to do is play hockey,” Backstrom said on breakdown day. “That’s my life. Obviously, I want to be back. I want to be back to normal, not worrying about this.”

Backstrom is now considering a more significant operation to repair his hip, one that would have a more intensive and difficult rehab period. The range of outcomes here is wide: from miracle recovery to early retirement. That’s a sobering notion for a player who has been the foundation of this team for 15 years.

According to Orson Welles

Nicke on RMNB

• Backstrom began the season on LTIR.
• But he managed to post feet in a commercial with Alex Ovechkin.
• To Ovechkin, on the occasion of his 600th assist: “I thought you were a goal-scorer?”
• Backstrom on sitting out games: “Obviously, it sucks. . . It’s been a roller-coaster, up and down, emotional. It’s not easy to sit out.”
• In early December, Backstrom was cleared for contact at practice.
• On December 15, the Capitals celebrated Backstrom’s return to the lineup.
• Two days later, he was on COVID protocol.
• Then in January he got the flu.
• On Ovechkin’s affinity for goals: “No one likes to score goals more than him”
• Favorite ice cream flavor: Strawberry.
• Ovechkin, on Backstrom’s OTGWG on January 23: “I call it sexy goal”
• A rando family in Arlington received Backstrom’s gloves by mistake. The team traded the family a bobblehead for their safe return.

this. this is the one. pic.twitter.com/ByGyIIMS9s

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) March 27, 2022

• In March, Backstrom scored his 1000th point. There was a standing ovation. Then an apple giveaway. Then Backstrom scored a big goal and all the apples hit the ice. Then Backstrom’s teammates pelted him with the apples.
• On former teammate Zdeno Chara: “I can’t say good enough things about him.”
• Backstrom missed time in April due to “body maintenance”, which is when you need to maintain your body.
• Backstrom is Washington’s Masterton nominee.
• Backstrom on his hip: “We have some decisions to make.”

Your Turn

If Nicklas Backstrom does not get surgery, what’s an appropriate role for him next season? Third line, tops? And do you think he could even pass the physical right now?

Read more: Japers Rink