Tom Wilson, who some say is the next captain of the Washington Capitals, remains an excellent defensive forward, but the teams needs a lot more offense.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 18 | goals |
| 17 | assists |
| 74 | games played |
| 18.1 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 50.3 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 50.0 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 35.2 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
My big fear for Tom Wilson this time last year was that he would not regain his speed after his ACL surgery. That fear was unfounded; the guy’s still got wheels. NHL Edge says he is as fast as he was before the injury. Huge relief there.
So, because I’m a worrier, I’m shifting my concern to his offense. Wilson scored 18 goals in 74 games, an almost okay total for a top-six forward. At five-on-five, Wilson’s individual goal rate was cut in half from last season’s high, though his underlying rates stayed steady. Wilson added five power-play goals – every one of them the effort of hard work in difficult areas. I don’t think we should discount his ability to work for goals, but I’m doubting about Wilson’s ability to get the rest of his team ready to score them.
All Three Zones’ visualization ranks Wilson’s transition play, passing, rush offense, and cycling offense poorly. No Caps forward had a lower rate of primary assists – it was about one-third that of Dylan Strome. He’s basically the worst possible linemate for Alex Ovechkin.
But at the other end of the ice, Wilson remains a very, very strong defensive forward. He’s fantastic at getting the puck back, winning board battles and making opportune stick checks. I don’t think there’s any more you could ask of a player in his own zone. But for a Caps team that ranked in the bottom five for most offensive stats, Wilson was a part of the problem.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
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Willy on RMNB
- Marcus Pettersson on Wilson’s consistency: “He can run people, but he doesn’t like it himself. It’s whatever.”
- In October Wilson recorded his 300th career point.
- With Backstrom out, Wilson wore the A.
- Wilson was an early adopter of TJ Oshie’s neck protection.
Why was Tom Wilson’s underwear on display at the Capitals’ season-ticket holder event?
- The Caps had an overly long power-play drought. Wilson ended it.
- The Tom Wilson game.
Tom Wilson scores first career hat trick in 700th career game
- After his knee surgery, Tom Wilson finally appears to have his speed back.
- He was named one of the Washingtonians of the Year. (Doesn’t he live in Virginia?)
- Elvis Merzlikins went animal style on Wilson. Wilson got him back with some chirps.
- On snakes, which are technically animals: “I don’t know if snakes are technically an animal.”
- Named an all-star.
- Not the face.
Tom Wilson sports swollen and bloody nose in postgame celebrations after collision during game
- We documented the hell out of that injury.
- A doctor had to straighten his shnoz.
- On the injury: “I’ve broken my nose a few times for sure but this one was the worst by far. You don’t forget that feeling, getting your nose put back in place. Especially when you don’t have the adrenaline of the game. When you come out after the game, you’re all revved up and you don’t feel much. When you have to follow up the next day and get it set, it’s not fun.”
- He missed some time. He was missed.
Tom Wilson fails lie detector test when asked how good-looking he thinks he is
- An anonymous NHL player says he’d like to punch Wilson. Wilson said he’d probably want to punch the anonymous player too.
- While playing NHL24: “How do I get Kuzy out of the lineup is the question. I’m just kidding. No, he’s my guy.”
- Wilson drank beer at the ASG. Pasta called him the best goal-scorer in the league again.
- Tate McRae is a fan.
- In some experimental line-matching, Wilson was tried on the fourth line a couple times late in the season. Interesting.
- Wilson kinda/sorta fought Garnet Hathaway in March.
- Wilson caught a high stick and it got infected. Gross.
- Then Wilson himself did a high stick on Noah Gregor. He got suspended six games. No mercy for Willy.
- Gregor on the incident: “I don’t think anyone in the league is ever trying to do that. Probably a little reckless with the stick and unfortunately got me but I ended up being okay. I’m fine. The league will handle it from here.”
- Wilson on the incident: “Tough part for me is: he doesn’t miss a shift, and I’m gone for six games. It’s tough; it’s a tough pill to swallow when that’s the case. It felt like a long time. So obviously, I’ve got to control my stick better and that doesn’t happen. But I think he knew right away it was an accident. There was no intent behind the play. So for six games, with a play that there’s not intent behind, it’s tough.” Hopefully, DOPS doesn’t read RMNB.
- Wilson was ranked the fourth-most “I don’t enjoy playing against this guy but I wish he was on my team.“
- Wilson was the team’s King Clancy nominee, and he was the inaugural winner of the Caps Care Community award.
- Matt Rempe, who took over for Wilson as the NHL’s main character, on Wilson: “A guy who I like the way he plays, plays hard. Very skilled player as well. It’s a guy who does a lot of different things. Obviously, I got a lot of respect for that guy. I think he’s a hell of a player.”
- When Rempe declined to fight Wilson in the playoffs: “He obviously didn’t want the momentum in the game to change. They were winning at the time, I think. I don’t know, maybe that’ll be his one chance. We’ll see.”
- Wilson on TJ Oshie: “Every day with him is an absolute pleasure and privilege. I’ve learned so much from him. It’s one of those guys that towards the end of the year, I’m like, ‘I’m going to leave it all out there because I don’t want to stop playing with you.’ You don’t want your last game with Osh to ever happen.”
- Finally, congrats!
Tom Wilson’s wife Taylor gives birth to couple’s first child, Teddy Wilson
Your Turn
Can Wilson get 40 points next season? And doesn’t he sorta have to?
