Alex Ovechkin ended the season with 31 goals. What you think of that total depends on where you started from.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 31 | goals |
| 34 | assists |
| 79 | games played |
| 19.2 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 48.0 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 46.0 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 40.2 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
Based on preseason expectations, I’d bet Ovechkin’s season was a disappointment to nearly everyone. I considered myself pessimistic and I still had him at 33, two more than his actual total.
But if you were to make a prediction in the middle of the season, 30 goals would have been a wonderful fantasy. After 41 games, Ovechkin was on pace to score just 16. Before we talk about how he turned it around, let’s talk about how he got there.
At five-on-five, Ovechkin was weaker than ever. He lost more than a quarter of his individual offense, measured by individual goal rate. His shooting percentage dropped by a point and a half. (I’m not even going to talk about defense.) As you can see from these two diagrams, Ovechkin fired fewer up-close-and-dangerous chances this season (right) compared to last (left), which itself wasn’t great either.
But the drop was even steeper on Washington’s power play, ranked 18th in the league. Ovechkin’s underlying stats there were solid: unblocked shot attempts were up almost nine percent, but they just wouldn’t go in. Ovechkin had his lowest five-on-four shooting percentage in 14 years. While he still scored more than expected (11 actual goals on 9.7 expected goals), that stat has always underrated the danger of the Ovi Shot from the Ovi Spot.
It’s hard for me to estimate how many goals Ovechkin “should of” had, and even if I did I think that exercise would obscure the deterioration in his play. Ovechkin’s defense has never been worse, though playing away from Kuznetsov helped a bit. His speed hasn’t been good in a few years, and – most importantly – he has become way too dependent on support from his teammates, perhaps without realizing it.
I often see Ovechkin try to do the things Ovechkin did 15 years ago: solo carry from neutral into the offensive zone to release a wristshot using a defender as a screen. Ovechkin can’t do the first part anymore, and every defender in the league is ready for the last part. The success rate is near zero, and yet Ovechkin is reluctant to yield control to his linemates. Maybe that’s because his linemates are not ideal. I love Dylan Strome, but Ovechkin needs way more offensive creativity than that great two-way forward can provide.
So the challenge is two-fold. Ovechkin needs to share the workload with his center. And the team needs to get him an appropriate center like they should have done two damn seasons ago. If the team has dual strategies (get better long-term and get Ovi the record ASAP), a high-end rental at center could be perfect. I don’t think Ovechkin will catch Gretzky next season, but with a couple important changes he can get real close.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
The Russian Machine didn’t break down, but he had some engine problems that required garage maintenance in the 2023-24 campaign. Be that as it may, 31 goals is nothing to sneeze at. Just 41 goals shy of the Great Man’s all-time N.H.L. goal record of 894, Alexander “The Mechanic” Ovechkin stands at the precipice of destiny on the verge of legend. Will Ovechkin grasp his fate in the 2024-25 campaign, or will the Russia Machine break?
Ovi on RMNB
- Ian has been on the Ovi’s Gear beat for a very long time, and there were curious developments this season.
- In a preseason team golf tournament, Ovechkin got a hole-in-one then immediately quit.
- Ovechkin took the lead in the NHL all-time era-adjusted goals record.
- On retirement: “[I] still enjoy [the game]. As soon as I’m not going to enjoy it, it’s probably not right for me to stay here and play the game the way I wanted to play.”
- On missing the playoffs last season: “It was suck.”
- Crosby says he and Ovechkin have grown closer.
- Ovechkin gave Carbery the game puck after the coach’s first win.
- For the first time ever, Ovechkin went without a shot in two straight games.
- The NHL’s new stat site suggested that Ovechkin’s speed is a problem.
- Things got bleak pretty fast.
- On losing Backstrom: “To be honest with you, I was in shock when I heard it today. He’s my friend, he’s my teammate and to see how emotional he is, you know it’s a tough situation.”
- Ovechkin’s lack of scoring was complicated. He was unlucky during the power play but also not getting the support he needed during five-on-five play. But even when his shot volume increased, the goals weren’t coming.
- For no reason:
- In November, Ovechkin tied Gretzky for most empty-net goals. (He later passed him.)
- Ovechkin’s power play was really struggling.
- While the Caps tried new ideas on the PP, Ovechkin mostly stayed in his same spot.
- With goal pace cratering, reaching Gretzky any time soon seemed like a fantasy.
- Evgeny Kuznetsov was not helping at all. The pair got split up the same day we published that story.
- Ovechkin became the 16th player to hit 1500 points.
- But the slump got bad.
- And they even tried new ideas on the power play. For a minute.
- In December, Ovechkin snapped a career-worst 11-game goal slump.
- Before the new year, Ovechkin could be considered snakebitten. He had generated eight more expected goals than he actually scored. Keep this in mind as we proceed.
- Ovechkin is a hockey stick free agent.
- Early in the new year, Ovechkin was missing time with a nagging injury. It was to the lower body.
- On why he wasn’t scoring as much: “I don’t know. Obviously, it’s up to me what I have to do better to get those shots [going] in. But how I said, sometimes maybe you’re going to have 100 percent chance, but you have to use it. And then when the first goal goes in, you feel much comfortable and you feel much, much better at your game.”
- January 30, 2024: 🐪
- A week later, he scored number 832.
- And he scored in three straight games.
- Make it five straight.
- Make it six.
- Weirdly — and this is something to keep an eye on — Carbery couldn’t find an overtime shift for Ovechkin in a game against Vancouver.
- Carbery on Ovechkin’s improved scoring: “I feel like he’s even skating a little bit more. I feel like there’s a little bit more jump in his step. Talked about it a couple times since coming back from the break.”
- Me on Ovechkin’s improved scoring: “Excellent support from Ovechkin’s teammates, Strome, Oshie, and Sandin.” Also the camel thing.
- Carbery again though: “There’s a little more jump in his game. He’s just a little bit more explosive in some areas, he’s skating more whether that’s forecheck or whether that’s defensively. “
Alex Ovechkin gives hug and signed hockey stick to young Capitals fan who’s in remission from cancer
- Ovi has stayed in touch with Kuznetsov. “We text. Everything will be okay.”
- Rooting for Auston Matthews to break his personal-best goal record, which he did.
- There are important differences between AM34 and AO8 though.
- Did Ovechkin yell at an official to “get out of the f—ing way!”?
- Ovechkin was — informed, consulted — not sure what the right word is — on the team’s plans for the trade deadline.
- But the goals kept coming. 841, 842 and 843, etc.
- Reflecting on the Kuznetsov trade.
- Ovechkin became the first player in history to record 19 consecutive 20-goal seasons from the start of his career.
- Goals goals goals. After that miserable start to the season, Ovechkin was named NHL first star of the week in March.
Alex Ovechkin’s ‘borderline inspiring’ diet includes gas station sub AND Flamin’ Hot Cheetos
- Flattening Jake McCabe.
- The Flaming Hot Cheetos thing was a running bit for a moment.
- One game shy of 70 against Crosby.
- Becoming the first player in NHL history to have eighteen 30-goal seasons.
- In April, Matthews passed Ovechkin in single-season goal total.
- Strome: Goalstradamus.
- Ovi Jr. scores on Darcy Kuemper.
- Ovechkin relished the underdog role in the Rangers series.
- More Cheetos.
- The playoffs were rough for Ovi. He was held shotless in one game.
- Carbery on playoff-Ovi: “He looks a little bit off. He’s not getting looks.”
- Ovi on playoff-Ovi: “Not good, but sometimes you just have to do what you can.”
- He ultimately went without a point in the series for the first time in his career. He owned the blame.
- He thinks, if he stays healthy, he can break Gretzky’s record.
- Ovi thinks Wilson will probably be the next captain of the Capitals. Keep this in mind.
- The Caps know they need more support for Ovechkin.
Your Turn
Will Ovi catch Gretzky next season? If not, how close?
