TJ Oshie had a rough season, but didn’t we all?
|16.7||time on ice per game|
|47.8||5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage|
|46.1||5-on-5 expected goal percentage|
|-2||5-on-5 goal differential|
For on-ice percentages, 50 percent means even: both teams possess the puck evenly. Higher is better, lower is worse.
About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties.
About this player card: This image from Evolving Hockey shows an overview of the player across different parts of their game. At top right are the players percentile rank (1 is worst; 100 best), overall and on offense and defense separately. Higher numbers are in blue. Below are the player’s contributions in different compartments of the game using the goals-above-replacement or GAR metric. Higher numbers (again in blue) mean the player adds value compared to an average AHL call-up player.
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:
On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?
1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Writing about TJ Oshie’s season feels more like writing about TJ Oshie’s injury history. He got hurt twice in October, again in December, and again in March. He’s had repeated shoulder injuries and a recurring back problem related to a foot injury from last season. He’s banged up.
This must be a tough adjustment for a player who had been pretty durable until a few years ago. And when Oshie did play, well, I just hope the on-ice numbers we saw tell us more about transient injuries than they do about his long-term viability. The Caps attempted seven fewer shots per hour when he was on the ice compared to when he was on the bench — the biggest negative impact to offense among all Caps forwards.
But Oshie’s individual offensive rates looked pretty strong, so I wonder if there might be some of that old scoring threat in him, despite his advanced age (turns 37 in December, this is younger than me, I am joking) and long string of injuries. If he is up for it, and if he can dodge the injury bug, and if he can get good support, I think he could still ball.
Can Oshie play a full, productive season in 2023-24? In the top six?
This article would not be possible without HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones. Please consider joining us in supporting them. For people interested in learning more from those resources, we recently published video walkthroughs.
RMNB is not associated with the Washington Capitals; Monumental Sports, the NHL, or its properties. Not even a little bit.
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