snapshot

It’s too early to worry, but…

I was slightly disappointed by the Capitals’ loss to the Leafs on Saturday night. I hoped for a bounce-back performance after that humiliation at the hands of the Devils, but instead the Caps got mildly outplayed and earned themselves a 2-2-1 record after two weeks.

After the game, superfan Will asked me:

We worried yet?

— Regal Beagle (@will_po) October 14, 2018

The short answer is no. The longer answer is, wellllllllll…… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Surprise, the Caps are excellent now: Snapshot 10

Did anyone see this coming? Did anyone watch the Caps around mid-February, when they were allowing their opponents more high-danger chances than any team in the last decade aside from the freaking Coyotes, and say, “welp, there’s a Stanley Cup contender right there. And not only that, but they’re going to make the Final based not on unreliable puck luck but rather a genuine turnaround in all fundamental statistics”?

No one did, and no one should have. To believe the Caps would improve would have been a shameless guess or an act of faith. But with a couple simple substitutions (Kempny for Bowey especially) without any detectable change in strategy besides hit everything that moves, the Caps are about to compete for the Cup, and they freaking deserve it. They outplayed and defeated Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Tampa – three excellent teams with multi-layered threats – to get here, and now all that stands between Alex Ovechkin and the Stanley Cup is George McPhee, Nate Schmidt, and Marc-Andre Fleury.

This is a surprise, maybe the single most enjoyable surprise of my life as a fan of this team. So here now is a surprise playoff snapshot, wherein we see what’s transformed the Washington Capitals into a finalist and what might yet go wrong against the Vegas Golden Knights.

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Being there: Snapshot 9

In 2013, Chris Boyle, then of Habs Eyes On the Prize created a landmark data visualization for hockey. Boyle graphed how a team’s shot share (i.e. what percent of attempts belonged to that team instead of their opponents) over the regular season compared to how that team did in the postseason. It was eye-opening. I consider it a foundational text for understanding how and intuiting why “possession” matters.

The vis is like a dartboard, with the bullseye at center being the championship. Around it are four quadrants representing regular-season shot-attempt percentages, which I’ll describe with the overlay below.

Teams that “control play” (i.e. have a high shot-attempt percentage) during the regular season tended to have better outcomes in the postseason. Teams that play “on their heels” (i.e. have a low shot-attempt percentage) tend to miss the playoffs and rarely go far if they make it at all.

The exceptions are fascinating. In 2010, the Washington Capitals were a powerhouse, but they were eliminated in the first round by the Montreal Canadiens. In 2009, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Cup despite mediocre shot-attempt numbers – though they fired their coach 55 games into the season and dominated thereafter. I like those two examples because they teach us that 5-on-5 shot attempts are not the only thing that “matters” and that there is always more detail to explore.

Nonetheless, precedent says that the 2017-18 Washington Capitals are in deep trouble this postseason. This is the topic of the final snapshot.

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Unless: Snapshot 8

The Washington Capitals have 14 games remaining, but there aren’t many surprises waiting within them. By now we know who this team is. We know who will play and who will sit, who will be used where, who will drive play and who will be on his heels, who will celebrate and who will be blamed.

The Caps are a bottom-ten team in shot attempts and a bottom-five team in expected goals. They are top-ten on the power play and middle-of-the-pack on penalty kill. A goalie switch and some depth defensive improvements move the margins a bit, but it seems viciously obvious where this team’s ceiling is: the second round of the playoffs.

Unless. This week’s snapshot is about unless. (more…)

Deadline approaching: Snapshot 7

The NHL trade deadline is quickly approaching and many of the Caps’ rivals in the East have already made significant moves to bolster their rosters with even more moves yet to come. The Caps have made two smaller moves, the already minimal impact of which will be nearly completely eliminated by the fact that either of the two new defenders acquired will replace Madison Bowey in the lineup, not Brooks Orpik.

But should we expect or want the Caps to make more moves before Monday’s trade deadline? On the former issue, Brian MacLellan has stated he will not deal away any of the team’s high draft picks in 2018 for a deadline acquisition. However, Bob McKenzie has reported that the Caps have been checking in on some defenders who would almost certainly cost the team high draft picks.

On the latter issue, of whether we should want the Caps to make significant moves before the deadline, I’m sure there will be many people who disagree with me. I think the Caps should absolutely be looking to deal future assets (i.e. draft picks) in order to bolster the current team. The Caps are a flawed team and aren’t widely considered to be a favorite for the Cup. But they are also certainly a team talented enough to make the playoffs, with a few elite difference makers, and we all know anything can happen once you make the playoffs. The Caps should be looking to increasing the odds of “anything” breaking their way in the playoffs this season.

Further to this point, it would be a mixed message if the Caps decided to play it safe this trade deadline. Why in the world did the team re-sign TJ Oshie (and, to a lesser extent Lars Eller, and why do they seem hellbent on bringing back John Carlson) if they weren’t planning on aggressively pursuing a Stanley Cup in the short term?

The Caps only have three playoffs runs left with the current contracts of Nick Backstrom and Braden Holtby. Alex Ovechkin is 32 and scoring like he’s 22. The Caps may not have a great shot at a sustained playoff run, but they’ve only got a few seasons left of having any shot of a sustained playoff run. The leaders on this team aren’t getting any younger. The Caps should be aggressive to give this team a better chance in the playoffs while guys like Backstrom and Ovechkin are still capable of leading a team.

With all this in mind, let’s see where the Caps stand heading into the deadline.

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No one to blame: Snapshot 6

There’s a certain undercurrent to how we talk about hockey that has had me on edge this season, and especially lately. While the Capitals have been very successful when measured in goals and wins and standings points, the team has pretty obvious flaws. When we talk about these flaws, we often name specific players, and that makes the discussions seem personal – as if to express disappointment in a player’s performance is the same as expressing disappointment in that player directly. But it’s rarely personal, and players often function in these discussions as proximities for a set of circumstances that the individual is in but not necessarily in control of.

I have to admit that I feel a sense of failure in myself as a communicator when my writing is read as a reflection of dislike for certain players. One of the allures of hockey for me is its complexity – the wild chaos on the surface belied by elegant patterns underneath, which in turn are themselves complicated by unseen layers still. I like looking deeper and learning more as much as I like the sound of skates on ice.

I both suspect and regret that this week’s snapshot will read as a condemnation of some individuals and a stout defense of a few others. I don’t have any problem with the latter, but the other part would sadden me.

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Return of the top-heavy Caps: Snapshot 3

The Washington Capitals are doing much better lately, and that’s a big relief. It surely makes life easier for Barry Trotz and Brian MacLellan. It’s less easy, however, to figure out why the Caps have improved. Matt Niskanen’s return to health is surely a driver, and the Ovechkin/Backstrom reunion before Thanksgiving seems to be one as well. But when we look at the team’s overall shot-attempt numbers, it’s not apparent that the Caps are doing much better than they were a month ago. And yet, the Caps are winning.

It seems to me like Niskanen’s return and the Ovi/Backstrom reunion have made the Caps far more fearsome – but also far more top-heavy – than they were before. In this week’s snapshot, we look at all the important progress made so far – and what’s left to be fixed. I’m not sure that line tinkering will be enough.

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Better ingredients, better pizza: Snapshot 2

We knew the Washington Capitals wouldn’t coast to another Presidents’ Trophy. We knew that this regular season would be a greater challenge than in seasons past. Some of us even thought that was perhaps for the best. (It is not.) But with the Caps barely above .500 one month into the season, there is increased chatter about Barry Trotz being on the proverbial hot seat.

While Trotz is making some confounding choices in lineup and deployment, those choices follow the same pattern that has led him to four very successful seasons as head coach: deliberate game pace, limited usage of young players, high leveraging of veterans. The difference between previous seasons and now is simple: the Caps roster is not as good as it used to be. Trotz’s decisions certainly exacerbate the problem, but it’s obvious that he has not been given the ingredients to win big this year.

In this week’s snapshot, we examine our ingredients to see which are making the pizza so bad that we need to drench it in garlic butter just to mask the taste.

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