The Washington Capitals have scored 33 goals during five-on-five play so far this season. But based on the volume and danger of their shots, you’d have expected them to score only 24.9 goals. That overperformance is fourth highest in the league, and I’m sure you’re going to hear some Hockey Man tout that statistic next week as he tells you not to believe in the 2024-25 Washington Capitals.
Believe in the 2024-25 Washington Capitals.
Their power play can’t buy a goal, their goaltending is bottom 10, and they’re getting hilariously favorable bounces, but these boys can play. They’ve outshot opponents in seven of ten games; they’ve beaten the Stars, Devils, and Rangers; they’ve gotten goalscoring out of every full-time forward except one; they’ve reinvigorated their fourth line; and they’re getting Alex Ovechkin his looks again.
There’s a poorly named stat called PDO. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, but in general terms it tells you if a team is scoring and getting scored on more than average based on uncommon shooting (for your team) and saving (for the opponents) percentages. The Caps rank third in PDO, behind the Wild and Rangers. Those two teams can thank their excellent goalies for their good PDO. The Caps have to credit their 14.1 percent shooting during five-on-five – highest in the league and cosmically certain to drop – by a lot –as the season grows. The record for highest single-season shooting percentage is 10.5, belonging to the notoriously diaphanous 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs.
A downturn is coming, and I don’t care. The team’s fundamentals are – SO FAR – very, very strong. And their weaknesses (goalies and especially the power play) are going to progress even as their finishing does the opposite.
As Chris puts it: the Caps are a wagon. All aboard. Let’s do the snapshot.
Before we begin, I’m going to do something different this month. I’m going to take every darn good percentage and I’m going to color-code it baby blue.
Forwards
| Player | TOI | SA% | xGF% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raddysh | 128 | 58.4 | 63.7 | 53.8 | 1.01 |
| Dowd | 128 | 56.8 | 60.5 | 79.8 | 1.09 |
| Strome | 126 | 56.5 | 61.8 | 73.8 | 1.10 |
| Wilson | 123 | 55.3 | 65.9 | 62.1 | 0.98 |
| Protas | 122 | 55.2 | 54.6 | 61.5 | 1.06 |
| Duhaime | 119 | 55.0 | 58.1 | 55.1 | 1.02 |
| McMichael | 119 | 54.6 | 64.7 | 64.3 | 1.00 |
| Ovechkin | 119 | 53.9 | 61.9 | 81.5 | 1.15 |
| Mangiapane | 107 | 53.5 | 61.5 | 79.9 | 1.05 |
| Dubois | 122 | 52.5 | 64.3 | 59.6 | 0.98 |
| Lapierre | 74 | 49.5 | 44.6 | 13.9 | 0.83 |
| Vrana | 86 | 45.8 | 44.4 | 66.3 | 1.05 |
Defenders
| Player | TOI | SA% | xGF% | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlson | 175 | 59.6 | 66.2 | 71.3 | 1.05 |
| Fehervary | 161 | 57.1 | 60.7 | 45.5 | 0.95 |
| van Riemsdyk | 170 | 53.6 | 55.1 | 62.7 | 1.04 |
| Sandin | 160 | 52.7 | 58.8 | 66.0 | 1.05 |
| Chychrun | 128 | 52.5 | 56.6 | 62.4 | 1.06 |
| McIlrath | 104 | 45.4 | 51.5 | 67.0 | 1.06 |
Glossary
- TOI – Time on ice in minutes. Only five-on-five play is included here.
- SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
- xGF% – Expected goals percentage. The share of expected goals generated by Washington while the skate is on the ice during five-on-five play. Expected goals weighs how likely to become a goal each attempted shot is. 50 percent means even.
- GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
- PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. One means league average. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, I hate it.
Notes
- Okay, so that’s a lot of baby blue in the tables above. I don’t know how to emphasize enough that the Washington Capitals have been phenomenally good to start the season. This isn’t Twenty Games In yet, and they’re stepping into a very difficult game Sunday evening, but I am stunned.
- By expected-goals percentage, on a team level, the Capitals rank second with 59.4 percent, with adjustments made based on location and score state. In first place are the Carolina Hurricanes, their opponents tonight. They have a whopping 64.3 percent. I am whopped by that number.
- It’s our first time doing the snapshot this season, so here’s a very brief explainer. Stuff happens on the ice like shots and goals, and you want them to happen for your team rather than for the opponent’s team. You want to be above 50 percent in all those “possession” or “share” stats, which cluster around 50 and – over a big enough sample – stay between 40 percent (very bad) and 60 percent (very good).
- So, when John Carlson, who plays 26 minutes a night, is leading your D corps in shot-attempt percentage (59.6 SA%), expected-goals percentage (66.2 xGF%), and actual-goals percentage (71.3 GF%), you’re going to have a good time. Really, if John Carlson is going at all, you’re going to have a good time. I’m having a good time.
- By the snapshot numbers, this is the best time the Washington Capitals have had through ten games since 2016-17, one year before the Cup win and during what I’d consider their very best season of this (post-Young Guns) era.
| Season | SA% through 10 games |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 54.6 |
| 2016 | 55.2 |
| 2017 | 54.9 |
| 2018 | 49.4 |
| 2019 | 49.8 |
| 2020 | 53.3 |
| 2021 | 47.3 |
| 2022 | 53.9 |
| 2023 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 48.8 |
| 2025 | 54.1 |
- There are like half a dozen things driving this performance, and I will wait until Sunday, November 24 before I try to enumerate them with any confidence, but let’s call out two players right now: Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas. We’ve been waiting for these two guys to break out for years, and I’ll be damned if they haven’t done just that. It’s leap year. Both are seeing major upticks in their individual offense rates, measured here by their personal expected-goals per hour – which counts their shot attempts and weighs each by how likely it is to have become a goal.
- I’m liking Alex Ovechkin‘s play a lot, but I want to note that he’s shooting 26 percent during five-on-five play – basically doubling his goal output there (5) versus expected (2.2). We don’t cover the power play much in the snapshot, but in the interest of fairness he’s generated a goal and half there (almost certainly an undercount because xG models don’t love Ovi’s power-play shots like you and I do) without a goal. I’d tap the brakes on his goal pace. Lightly.
- Excluded from the statistical love fest are Hendrix Lapierre and Jakub Vrana. That third line is the team’s weakest, but I should also note that they missed games that surely would have helped their stats had they played. I’m a Lapierre doubter personally, but there’s still time for him to reveal himself, and he and Vrana and Mangiapane have done extremely well together in limited minutes. I’m putting a pin in this, and I’d be delighted to be wrong.
- Only about 20 forward trios have skated together for more than 90 minutes so far this season. Of them, Washington’s second line (McMichael – Dubois – Wilson) and fourth (Duhaime – Dowd – Raddysh) rank fifth and sixth by expected goals percentage. Taylor Raddysh, who was just a fun name to me four months ago, sees his team control a larger share of the shot attempts (58.4 SA%) than any forward. He and Duhaime have brought Nic Dowd and that fourth line back to dominance.
- Like Raddysh, every offseason addition has been a success (and every subtraction just as big a success, but let’s keep the vibes posi). Without actually quantifying his impact, which we’ll do in ten more games, we can safely say Pierre-Luc Dubois has improved the second line, and that alone accounts for a major improvement from last season. I will not elaborate.
- Matt Roy did not make the snapshot on account of playing like nine shifts total before getting hurt. When he swaps back in for Dylan McIlrath (a team-low 45.4 SA% but we all love him), I wouldn’t be surprised if, as he returns and take some tough minutes away from Carlson, we see even more improvement.
- Err, let me tune that a bit: I wouldn’t be surprised if we see even more longevity to Washington’s good play. Their performance right now is elite, and it’s not fair to ask of more (except of the goaltending and power play, obviously). But if they can merely keep this up, or keep up something close to this, I’m going to be a very happy hockey writer.
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