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No talking about goalies: snapshot 4

By Peter Hassett

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May 1, 2022 10:41 am

The regular season is over. The playoffs await. This is no time for silliness, but let’s play a quick game anyway.

Here are two teams, Team A and Team B.

Team GP Record SA% xGF% GF% Sh% Sv%
Team A 19 14-5-0 49.5 51.0 56.0 9.1 92.1
Team B 18 9-7-2 51.2 50.2 48.4 9.2 89.2

Who are the two teams? We’ll find out at the bottom of the snapshot. By the way, let’s do the final snapshot of the year. No discussing goalies allowed.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% SA% rel GF% PDO
Johan Larsson 14 149 56.2 +4.1 48.1 0.96
Anthony Mantha 37 469 54.7 +5.0 57.6 1.00
Marcus Johansson 18 223 53.3 +2.9 45.7 0.97
Connor McMichael 68 697 53.0 +2.9 47.8 0.98
Brett Leason 36 321 52.3 +1.7 50.6 1.00
Carl Hagelin 53 639 52.2 +1.6 58.1 1.01
Aliaksei Protas 33 352 54.3 +2.3 57.2 1.01
Garnet Hathaway 76 889 52.1 +2.0 64.4 1.02
Nic Dowd 64 757 51.0 +0.4 58.0 1.01
Lars Eller 72 896 50.9 +0.6 50.2 1.00
Tom Wilson 78 1062 50.5 -0.1 54.3 1.02
Conor Sheary 71 894 49.9 -1.1 48.7 1.00
Alex Ovechkin 77 1129 49.8 -1.6 54.9 1.02
Evgeny Kuznetsov 79 1118 49.8 -1.3 54.7 1.02
T.J. Oshie 44 562 49.3 -3.1 42.7 0.98
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 23 239 48.3 -1.1 55.2 1.01
Nicklas Backstrom 47 598 46.6 -4.2 44.9 1.00

Defenders

Player GP TOI SA% SA% rel GF% PDO
Matt Irwin 17 203 56.7 +5.6 49.9 0.96
Dmitry Orlov 76 1388 53.0 +3.5 60.0 1.02
Justin Schultz 74 1102 51.4 +0.4 45.8 0.98
John Carlson 78 1296 51.2 +0.2 51.7 1.00
Nick Jensen 76 1248 50.7 -0.3 64.0 1.04
Trevor van Riemsdyk 72 1033 49.9 -1.7 48.2 0.99
Martin Fehervary 79 1361 49.4 -2.4 52.7 1.01
Michal Kempny 15 217 42.8 -4.7 37.7 0.99

Glossary

  • GP – Games played.
  • TOI – Time on ice in minutes
  • SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
  • SA% Rel – Relative shot-attempt percentage. The difference in SA% when the player is on the bench versus on the ice. 0% means even.
  • GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
  • PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice. 1 means even. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, that it is annoying.

Notes

  • These injuries are partially just bad luck, but they’re to a lesser extent a consequence of the team’s older roster. Aside from Mantha, those top injured forwards are all on the wrong side of age 30 (which is also to say on my side of the age of 30).
  • After the playoffs, however long they last, we’ll have more time to discuss Evgeny Kuznetsov‘s season, but here’s my trying to sum it up in one word: triumph. During Kuznetsov’s shifts, the Caps outscored opponents 56 to 46. Though Kuznetsov’s underlying numbers, meaning ones based in attempts rather than finished goals, the Caps were underwater, 49.8 percent in attempts and 48.1 percent in expected goals. I suppose there are multiple ways to interpret that gap, but here’s one with good vibes: I think there’s even more progress to be made.
  • Meanwhile, it’s undeniable that Nicklas Backstrom has been really struggling this season. (The Caps controlled 46.6 percent of shot attempts when he was on the ice, the lowest among forwards). Backstrom is still exceptionally skilled, but I desperately hope the coaches know they can’t depend on him to drive play anymore. I’m not sure Tom Wilson or Conor Sheary are great linemates for him. A reliable possession forward like Anthony Mantha (with a plus-5.0 point change in shot-attempt percentage), however, could pay off brilliantly.
  • I want to talk about the new guys. We seen just 14 games from Johan  Larsson, but I think he’s a very interesting addition. He turns an already defensively skilled fourth line (with Dowd and Hathaway) into a juggernaut at matchups. For example, they positively shut down Auston Matthews last week. I hope they can do the same for whoever they face next week. I think it’ll be the Aleksander Barkov line? That’s something to keep an eye on. Now here’s how that fourth line has performed based on who the third guy was.
Dowd-Hathaway and TOI SA% xGF%
Johan Larsson 94 57.0 66.5
Carl Hagelin 344 54.0 51.9
Anyone else 132 47.8 52.0
  • Okay follow me on this one. I know we all think of Marcus Johansson as a fragile player who is prone to injury, but when he’s in the lineup I think he’s exceptionally reliable. If he hadn’t had such bad on-ice goaltending since arriving in Washington (88.9 percent during five-on-five play, lower than all full-time forwards except Larsson), we would probably all see his addition as an unqualified success. I’m not going to talk about goalies here though. During even-strength, he’s put the Caps offense on turbo mode (HockeyViz says the Caps are shooting 17 percentage points above league average during Johansson’s shifts.) And during the power play, Marcus has been planting himself in the low slot just like he always used to. I’d love to see him get some even-strength shifts with Backstrom, to combine Johansson’s carriage skills with Backstrom’s playmaking skills.
  • I don’t have anything new to say about Connor McMichael, whose continued exclusion from the lineup is simply self-sabotage by a coaching staff. McMichael’s offensive generation is special, and his neglect by Peter Laviolette is vulgar and disappointing.
  • The loffs take their toll on bodies, so if the Capitals need to activate a depth defender, I hope they turn to Matt Irwin (56.7 on-ice shot-attempt percentage). Irwin played just 17 games, but he limited opponents to a lower offensive rate (1.9 expected goals per hour) than any other Caps defender. It’s just that Caps goalies saved just 86.1 percent behind him, which is really rotten. I’m not gonna talk about goalies today though. Nope.
  • Sadly, there’s no need to see any more from Michal Kempny, who just doesn’t have it anymore as evidenced by his 42.8 on-ice shot-attempt percentage. I’m sorry.
  • Along with Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen has had tremendously successful season, outscoring opponents 65 to 37 while he was on the ice. To me that pair has been the biggest surprise of the season.
  • Meanwhile, Martin Fehervary really dropped off as the season progressed. Below is a snippet from HockeyViz’s season summary, showing Fehervary’s season in two lines: black is how much offense the Caps get when he’s on the ice, red is the same but for opponents. We want to see black above red, but around midseason we definitely did not get what we want.
  • Okay, here’s the answer to the question at the top of the story. Team A is the Washington Capitals since the trade deadline. Team B is the Washington Capitals since the trade deadline. But Team A was the Caps since the 2018 trade deadline, Team B is Caps since the 2022 trade deadline. Goaltending matters. But I’m not gonna talk about goalies today.
Team GP Record SA% xGF% GF% Sh% Sv%
2018 Caps 19 14-5-0 49.5 51.0 56.0 9.1 92.1
2022 Caps 18 9-7-2 51.2 50.2 48.4 9.2 89.2
  • Oh and yeah, remember, those were Grubauer hours back then. Anything can happen in the loffs. Let’s have some fun.

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