Connor McMichael was an extra skater at Tuesday’s morning skate, suggesting he’ll again be a healthy scratch for tonight’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers.
That would be McMichael’s seventh scratch of the season. That’s not smart.
McMichael, 21, is the youngest full-time player on a much more mature Caps roster. In limited minutes (10:26 per game), he’s recorded nine goals and nine points. And yet the young winger has seemingly fallen out of favor with head coach Peter Laviolette.
And yet, late last month Laviolette was circumspect on McMichael’s season. “There are some good things,” Laviolette said. “Some ups, some downs, some nights where you’re star of the game. There’s some nights where you’re a scratch.
“He has kept his head on straight the entire time, worked hard through the course of the year, done the right things, quietly gone about his business in a positive way.”
That’s solid but considered praise for the player, which makes all the more mystifying the consistent decision not to play him. It’s clear that Washington is a better team when Connor McMichael is on the ice.
Below are on-ice statistics from Natural Stat Trick during five-on-five play. Each percentage is the share of total events that belong to Washington, where fifty percent is even and higher is better. One column is for shifts where McMichael is on the ice; the other is for when McMichael is on the bench.
| On the ice | On the bench | |
|---|---|---|
| SA% | 52.8 | 49.4 |
| xG% | 57.4 | 49.2 |
| Goal% | 48.2 | 56.3 |
In the statistics not affected by goaltending and shooting, the Capitals are a dominant team when McMichael is playing for them. A 57.4 percentage in expected goals is roughly where the Calgary Flames are this season. In those same statistics, when McMichael is on the bench the Capitals drop below fifty percent, which means their opponents have the puck more and are doing more with it.
And then we get to actual goals, where shooting luck and goaltending come into play. Everything switches. Now the Capitals are below even when McMichael is on the ice and dominant when he’s on the bench.
Here’s how shooting and saving percentages are coloring those goals-for percentages.
| On the ice | On the bench | |
|---|---|---|
| Sh% | 7.0 | 9.8 |
| Sv% | 91.0 | 92.4 |
Goalies Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek save some of their worst performances for McMichael’s shifts. (Some top-sixers like TJ Oshie are similarly unlucky). And no full-time Caps forward has a lower on-ice shooting percentage than McMichael. (The injured Carl Hagelin had a slightly lower one, but that is a topic for another day.)
This is just bad luck. It’s happenstance blinding a coaching staff that is already a bit prejudiced against younger players. It’s self sabotage, denying the Capitals the speed and production that they badly lack.
To avoid their fourth consecutive first-round elimination, the Washington Capitals need to find marginal improvements everywhere they can. Here’s an easy one: they should play Connor McMichael.
Headline photo: Elizabeth Kong/RMNB
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick. Please consider joining us in supporting NST through Patreon.
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