The Washington Capitals are 4-4-2 in their last ten games, placing them sixth out of the eight Metropolitan teams, one of which is Philadelphia, who haven’t won a game in regulation since December 14.
This is not to say Washington is bad; they’re not. But they’ve got some discrete problems that have gone unaddressed for too long. And the solutions they’re reportedly “considering” are even worse.
It’s time to do the snapshot.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | SA% Rel | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backstrom | 9 | 115 | 57.8 | +6.6 | 53.8 | 0.97 |
| Sgarbossa | 10 | 91 | 57.4 | +4.5 | 59.8 | 1.01 |
| Protas | 30 | 328 | 56.0 | +3.3 | 63.2 | 1.03 |
| Malenstyn | 12 | 100 | 55.8 | +1.6 | 63.4 | 1.03 |
| Mantha | 10 | 109 | 55.1 | +1.6 | 58.6 | 1.01 |
| Oshie | 18 | 233 | 54.7 | -0.2 | 43.2 | 0.96 |
| McMichael | 39 | 406 | 54.5 | +2.2 | 48.8 | 0.98 |
| Hathaway | 37 | 454 | 54.1 | +2.1 | 65.1 | 1.03 |
| Leason | 30 | 273 | 53.9 | +2.3 | 50.7 | 0.99 |
| Jonsson-Fjallby | 9 | 100 | 53.2 | +2.4 | 61.5 | 1.01 |
| Ovechkin | 42 | 664 | 52.6 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 1.05 |
| Hagelin | 40 | 482 | 52.4 | +0.2 | 51.6 | 1.00 |
| Sprong | 34 | 394 | 51.6 | -2.0 | 56.3 | 1.01 |
| Sheary | 32 | 391 | 51.6 | -1.4 | 51.8 | 1.00 |
| Wilson | 38 | 550 | 51.4 | -1.0 | 56.8 | 1.03 |
| Eller | 35 | 463 | 51.3 | -1.1 | 57.1 | 1.03 |
| Kuznetsov | 39 | 604 | 51.1 | -1.8 | 62.7 | 1.05 |
| Dowd | 29 | 347 | 50.0 | -2.8 | 51.3 | 1.00 |
Defenders
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | SA% Rel | GF% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irwin | 12 | 147 | 54.9 | +3.3 | 39.2 | 0.93 |
| Orlov | 38 | 693 | 54.7 | +3.4 | 66.8 | 1.03 |
| Carlson | 38 | 632 | 54.2 | +1.5 | 56.0 | 1.00 |
| Fehervary | 39 | 665 | 52.6 | -0.4 | 57.5 | 1.02 |
| Schultz | 37 | 577 | 52.6 | -0.4 | 52.0 | 1.00 |
| Jensen | 39 | 649 | 52.0 | -1.1 | 67.5 | 1.05 |
| van Riemsdyk | 37 | 561 | 50.7 | -2.7 | 51.2 | 1.00 |
| Kempny | 5 | 85 | 45.4 | -5.0 | 49.4 | 1.04 |
| Cholowski | 7 | 90 | 41.7 | -11.3 | 38.7 | 1.00 |
Glossary
- GP – Games played.
- TOI – Time on ice in minutes
- SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
- SA% Rel – Relative shot-attempt percentage. The difference in SA% when the player is on the bench versus on the ice. 0% means even.
- GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
- PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice. 1 means even. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, that it is annoying.
Notes
- Having returned from hip injury, Nicklas Backstrom still doesn’t look 100 percent to me, but Backstrom at sub-optimal performance is still a very good hockey player. His on-ice shot-attempt percentage is tops on the team (57.8 percent).
- Nick Jensen (plus-18 on-ice goal differential) and Dmitry Orlov (plus-16) have been Washington’s best defenders this season. Missing them both (one to injury, the other to a now-served two-game suspension) hurts a great deal. Let’s look at who’s been playing instead.
- Michal Kempny and Dennis Cholowski sport the lowest on-ice shot-attempt percentages among all skaters. “On-ice shot-attempt percentage” is just like saying how much offense each team gets — with fifty percent being even. Kempny is at 45.4 percent; Cholowski at 41.7 percent. Kempny looks good, having returned from a nightmarish couple years of injuries, but his on-ice statistics should give us pause. No such pause is needed for Cholowski, who is not up to the job of full-time NHL duty.
- In a perfectly healthy, COVID-free world that does not exist, the Caps have a fantastic top-six defensive corps: Orlov, Jensen, Carlson, Schultz, Fehervary, and TvR. In addition, Matt Irwin might be viable too, and Kempny could do in a pinch, but I suspect the Capitals will want more depth options at the trade deadline, which will lead to analysis and conjecture along the lines of: Is he any good? and Will he play at all? The answer to both questions will probably be “not really.”
- I love that the Capitals own 52.6 percent of the shot attempts when Alex Ovechkin is on the ice, and 52.6 percent of the shot attempts when he’s on the bench. Ovechkin is the nuclear core of this team. There’s not much snapshotty stuff to say about him today; his case to win the Hart is good — and unprecedented for someone as disgustingly old as he is (i.e. a year younger than me), but I’ll leave that for another day.
- There is no good reason, on-ice or off, for the Capitals to sign free-agent/poison pill Evander Kane. He’s a good finisher, but anything else good you may remember about his impact has decayed since he left the Eastern Conference in 2018. There are far better options out there, even going strictly by on-ice play like a psychopath might do. Below is an RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey. It compares how two players perform at various statistics relative to “average” — so a bar going up means better, and a bar going down means worse. “Mystery Player X” is better at everything than Kane except finishing (GF/60 aka team goals per hour). The Caps should go for Mystery Player X instead of Kane.
- Spoiler alert: Mystery Player X is Connor McMichael, who has the worst combination of on-ice shooting and saving percentages among full-time forwards. His line is shooting under four percent when he’s with Sheary under three percent when he’s with Sprong, both good finishers. Brutal luck for a special player getting misevaluated by leadership right now.
- I want to do a brief and mild defense of Carl Hagelin, whose 51.6 on-ice goals percentage is near the bottom among forwards. I want to first dispel the idea that Hagelin is significantly overpaid for his role. Below are UFA forwards by salary and ice time; Hagelin is snug along the trendline.
- And Hagelin has been very good in that role. The Hathaway-Dowd-Hagelin line isn’t world-beater status anymore, but they’re still darn good with real chemistry. They’ve functionally been Washington’s third line this season, and I think they’ve been just fine there.
- Though I wasn’t expecting the line’s expected goals (xGF%) to be that weak. To be honest, that’s a huge gap from raw volume to volume times quality, and it merits a closer look. Also, we really need to see better discipline from Hathaway and Dowd, especially late in games.
And while we’re piling on Hags… (via @MoneyPuckdotcom) pic.twitter.com/p8FsdXimoo
— Japers’ Rink (@JapersRink) January 19, 2022
- Lastly, I want to discuss goaltending, which I think is the single biggest driver of Washington’s not-great performance in the last month. More so than special teams, more so than injuries, Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek are blowing starts on a regular basis, with maybe just three good performances since the new year. I’m ready to get off the goalie-duel train.
- I want the Caps to make a trade for a goaltender very real soon.
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Headline photo: NBC Sports Washington
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