Twenty games in: The Sunday Snapshot suggests a shakeup

The Washington Capitals’ loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday dropped them to 12th place by points percentage, but they’re still in a good position overall. That could make a story like this feel out of joint. By the numbers that the snapshot cares about, the Caps are not a good team, which we discussed on a team-level yesterday in the Twenty Games In series.

Now we’re going to look at individual performances, or at least the metrics of the team when individual players are on the ice, to better understand how the Caps seem how they seem. A lot of this is going to come off negative because almost all of the underlying statistics are bad, but that doesn’t mean you have to feel it that way. Some numbers are bad because of bad luck, and they’re going to get better soon. Some numbers are bad because of unfortunate playing contexts, which are easy to change. And some numbers are bad because the Caps roster is flawed. Maybe that’s okay too. It’s only December, so this team still has time to bundle up for what will surely be a cold winter.

Forwards

Defenders

Glossary

• TOI – Time on ice in minutes. Only five-on-five play is included here.
• SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
• xGF% – Expected goals percentage. The share of expected goals generated by Washington while the skate is on the ice during five-on-five play. Expected goals weights how likely to become a goal each attempted shot is. 50 percent means even.
• GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
• PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. One means league average. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, I hate it.

Notes

• Starting with the bird’s eye view. The Capitals rank 12th by points percentage, but during five-on-five play they rank 29th in attempts, 26th by expected goals, 28th by scoring chances, and 29th by high-danger chances. They’re winning close games and they’re getting good goaltending, neither of which will be reflected below.
• Alex Ovechkin still isn’t scoring. Neither are his on-ice partners, but I think there are a lot of reasons that will turn around. One is his new center, Dylan Strome, but we’ve talked about that already. How about the rate of rebounds he’s created, 2.5 per hour, placing him in the 97th percentile among forwards. He’s still got offensive volume, and it’s created second opportunities for linemates. The goals will come.
• I think the snapshot gives a good opportunity to see why those goals will come. I’m going to do a massive cheat here, but I think it’s insightful. Below are Ovechkin’s individual offense rates during five-on-five since the Cup year. Except for this current season*, where I’m including only Ovechkin’s time when with Dylan Strome at center.

• He’s still got it – as long as he’s not saddled with the player we’ll discuss later in the snapshot.
• But right now, Ovechkin and Tom Wilson sport the team’s worst goal differentials during five-on-five play, minus-8. They’ve got relatively good offensive rates (though still below 50th percentile in the league), but terrible conversion. Taking high-dangers alone, Ovechkin’s line has converted just 8 percent of their chances, worst among forwards and about four percentage points below the league average. It’s official: they’ve got the yips.
• And it sucks, because the lowest shooting percentages are reserved for the team’s most notorious offensive players: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Carlson, Oshie, and Backstrom. I guess those are the team’s most notorious offensive players plus two inactive players who were once among their most notorious offensive players. Ugh.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov currently has the highest average ice time on the team – 21 minutes a night across all situations. After his separation from Ovechkin (which happened the morning before I wrote a long article about it but only reported like 30 minutes after I published), and his demotion and benching on Saturday night, I suspect that’s about to change. From results and boxcar stats (minus-7 in goals, 40-point pace) to the stuff we look at in this exercise (40.1 in shot-attempt percentage, and a freaking 32.1 in expected-goal percentage), Kuznetsov is a disaster. Anytime an on-ice percentage is below 40 percent in a non-tiny sample, that’s not really competitive hockey anymore. Eight points below is unacceptable for a supposed top-six forward.
• Nic Dowd is in trouble. There’s a lot going on here, so let’s start with his deployment context. He starts 93 percent of his non-neutral shifts in the defensive zone – more than any Caps forward – and more than any forward in the NHL. He generates fewer expected goals than any other forward in the league, which is a partial consequence of those deployments, but surely not the only contributing factor. On the other hand, the Caps are shooting 11.1 percent when he’s on the ice and their goalies are saving 96.0 percent, so everything looks hunky dory on the topsheet. For now.
• Moving into opinion and speculation, I do not think Beck Malenstyn (39.1 percent in shot attempts, 37.9 in expected goals) is a good complement to Dowd, and I’m not sure he’s an NHL-caliber player either. I’ve got doubts about Nicolas Aube-Kubel as well, but they’re slighter, and I’m also worried about Dowd’s viability overall. He’s been an elite grinder for a long time, but we don’t have evidence that he remains one today.
• So basically the fourth line is broken; that’s fun. Opponents control more than 60 percent of the high-danger chances when they’re on the ice, the exact opposite of what you want from a fourth line (i.e. slower pace and lower quality for both teams). The good news is that fourth-line personnel are the easiest to trade in this league, or would be if any GMs in this league outside Vancouver were actually interested in making trades.
• This is a bigger topic for another day, but I’m not overly impressed by any of the youth-infusion players the Caps have introduced this season. Matthew Phillips (56.6 percent in expected goals in 155 minutes) and Hardy Haman Aktell (52.0 percent in expected goals in 63 minutes) might be exceptions. There was once a fleeting hope for a bumper crop of young players to instantly revitalize the team. That’s not going to happen.
• I’m not removing Nicklas Backstrom the snapshot. I’m not ready.
• Joel Edmundson has not impressed so far. Every forward he’s skated with for more than 12 minutes has performed worse with him, when measured by on-ice shot-attempt percentage. But given he’s only played seven games, I don’t consider that authoritative yet. For now I’ll just be quietly skeptical.
• Which I’m not about Nick Jensen, who has seen the Capitals control just 38.9 percent of the expected goals while he’s on the ice. While I don’t have a single clue what’s going wrong, it’s obvious something has gone wrong. Here are Jensen’s most common forward partners and how they fare in on-ice shot-attempt percentage when they’re with him versus without him.

• It’s night and day. Except for Connor McMichael, who is our perfect son. I’m speculating here, but is Jensen one of those players who would benefit from a change in scenery?
• I know this is a lot of negative analysis, but I see it as an opportunity. This team is like an old house. It’s got charm, and it’s got good bones. But let’s rip some of the walls out, make the kitchen/dining area open-concept, let’s replace the toilet, maybe install a bidet, how about new appliances? That’s all doable given the amount of (metaphor breaks here) salary-cap space the team has. The time to make these kinds of changes is now, while the team is still in good position, before the markets tighten up.

Headline photo: Katie Adler/RMNB

This story would not be possible without Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Viz. Please consider joining us in supporting them.