twenty games in

The John Carlson problem: a conversation with HockeyViz’s Micah Blake McCurdy

John Carlson has 605 career points. He’s a two-time all star. He has finished in the top five for Norris voting three times. He scored 20 points in Washington’s Stanley Cup run. He’s a very good player with a very distinguished career.

He’s also often the subject of criticism for his defense. He’s been on the ice for 17 opponent goals during five-on-five play, behind only his current partner, Erik Gustafsson. Among 157 NHL defenders with 240 minutes played, Carlson ranks 146th at limiting high-danger chances for the opponent. According to HockeyViz, opponents get 11 percentage points more offense when Carlson is on the ice compared to the league average.

For the conclusion of the twenty-games-in series, I spoke with Micah Blake McCurdy, creator of HockeyViz, about the mystery of offensive defenders, what makes Carlson so dangerous at both ends of the ice, and why his recent results may be falling short.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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One stat to better understand every Caps player

We’re almost done with the twenty-games-in series. I have one more treat in store, but before that I want to play a game.

I’ve gone through every active-ish player for the Washington Capitals and pulled one stat that helps me understand their season so far. A couple of these surprised me; a couple of them might surprise you. One or two should enrage you. I hope a few of them grow our shared appreciation for some guys. I’ve tried to keep my commentary to a minimum, though my stats selections should suggest my feelings on a lot of these.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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A newbie-friendly walkthrough of different hockey analytics resources

We’re now over twenty games into the season. With a roughly a quarter of the season done, I’m less wary of looking at statistics for fear of small-sample distortions. That’s my excuse for doing something I’ve wanted to do for a long time.

There’s a lot of ways to enjoy hockey, and I won’t ever wag my finger at someone who doesn’t like numbers side of it. If you’ve ever been quantitatively curious but felt like analytics were unapproachable, I’ve got something that could help.

I’ve walked through my favorite hockey analytics and statistics resources and recorded how I use them, what I like about them, and what seems most meaningful to me. In case you want to get into this stuff, these videos might be a helpful start for you.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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Executive Summary for the first Happiness Survey of 2022-23 (confidential)

We are twenty games into the season, and the Washington Capitals are not great, folks. But standings points and five-on-five score- and venue-adjusted on-ice shot-attempt percentages are not nearly as important as the most important statistic of all: your feelings.

Here now is the executive summary for the first happiness survey of the season. More than 1000 respondents scored each Capitals player from 1 to 5, based on how happy the respondent is that the player is on the team.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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It’s time for you to take the Caps happiness survey

Hello. We are twenty games into the season, so I wanted to check on your happiness.

This is a fun exercise that will take you three minutes to complete.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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Twenty games in: the Washington Capitals are bad

The Washington Capitals have reached the twenty-game mark, which is my totally arbitrary threshold that must be reached before I am willing to start making conclusions about the team.

So here’s my conclusion: Folks, they’re really bad. Let me trace how I got there.

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By Peter Hassett 4 months ago

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The Washington Capitals defense is as strong as it has ever been

The third period of Tuesday’s game notwithstanding, the Washington Capitals have become a fearsome defensive team this season. In this last entry (for now) of the Twenty Games In series, I’d like to dive deep into Washington’s biggest improvement of 2021-22: the defense.

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By Peter Hassett 1 year ago

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Alex Ovechkin’s unprecedented season, Kuznetsov’s comeback season, and the goalie détente

Before the season began, I identified five storylines I wanted to track this year.

The goalie duel between Samsonov and Vanecek,
The Capitals’ aging core,
Evgeny Kuznetsov’s opportunity for a comeback,
Tom Wilson’s penchant for drama,
Alex Ovechkin’s goal-scoring race

Now, twenty-one games into the season, let’s check the wavelengths on these vibes.

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By Peter Hassett 1 year ago

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A report card for the first twenty games

The Washington Capitals crossed the twenty-game threshold on Wednesday. That’s a totally arbitrary line I chose to stop me from making absurd judgements about the team before they’ve played many games. But now that the season’s a quarter gone, I figure we can start to draw some conclusions, even if they’re a bit rough.

I have assigned grades to the Caps’ offense, defense, goaltending, and special teams.

I’m going to need the power play to see me after class.

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By Peter Hassett 1 year ago

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Executive Summary for the first Happiness Survey of 2021-22 (Confidential)

We are now twenty games into the 2021-22 season, so it’s time for us to see where we stand. There will be a bunch of nerdy analysis stuff coming up, but I want to start with the most important dimension of Capitals hockey: feelings.

Here now is the executive summary for the first happiness survey of the season. About two thousand respondents scored each Capitals player from 1 to 5, with five meaning that the respondent is very happy that the player is on the team. The results may shock you.

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By Peter Hassett 1 year ago

1 Comment

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