Justin Sourdif cost two draft picks, and all he gave in return was a breakout season as a gifted defensive forward.
By the Numbers
15
Goals
20
Assists
78
Games played
15
Minutes per game
On-ice percentages
51%
Shot attempts
52%
Expected goals
63%
Actual goals
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple blobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. The player’s shot speed, skating speed, and skating distance are at top along with percentile rank. At bottom left is a shot location map, and at bottom right is zone time per zone.
Gratuitous Generative Art by Peter
Peter’s Take
On January 5, Justin Sourdif scored a hat trick. It felt like the grand debut for a player who had been fighting for this opportunity for years. Sourdif played just four NHL games in the prior two seasons, spending most of his time with Florida’s AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers. So I get how it seemed out of left field when GM Chris Patrick traded a second-round pick and sixth-round pick to Florida for the guy. My instant reaction was, “who?”
For others, the reaction was “why did the Caps get Sourdif when they already have players X, Y, and Z?” And over the 2025-26 season, the answer revealed itself: Because Sourdif is better than players X, Y, and Z.
Ostensibly, the plan was to play him with Dowd and Duhaime. But they clocked under 90 minutes together, and then Sourdif played up the lineup when Pierre-Luc Dubois got hurt. On that big night in January, Sourdif was centering McMichael and Leonard. That line outscored opponents 8 to 4 in a wildly unsustainable 100-minute performance. That’s not a workable trio.
The better line – and Washington’s best line all season – was Sourdif with Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson. They controlled 61 percent of expected goals and outscored opponents 15 to 5. That’s the kind of line you play until the wheels come off.
Wilson and Protas have to be the ideal linemates for any NHL forward. It’d be hard not to do well with them, but that’s not the critical feature. Wilson and Protas made Sourdif better, and Sourdif made Wilson and Protas better in kind.
That Sourdif played worse away from that line shouldn’t be a shock: that time was spent mostly with Leonard and McMichael, whose flaws we discussed just last week.
If we spend a little extra time isolating Sourdif’s performance from his context, then – by every measurement we have – Sourdif is a very good defensive player. He ranked first among Caps forwards in the defense compartment of Evolving Hockey’s goals-above-replacement with a plus-4.2 – somewhere just above the 90th percentile league-wide. The Caps held opponent offense to eleven percentage points below league average when he was on the ice, according to HockeyViz. And opponents scored 1.65 goals per hour against him, better than 347 out of 351 NHL forwards. (Sourdif owes a lot to Logan Thompson for that one.)
In hindsight, it was a genius trade by Chris Patrick’s team.
I kind of doubt Sourdif’s fated position is in Washington’s top six. Feels more likely he’ll be the heart of a third line, and every signal we have suggests he’ll be excellent there. Not bad for a couple draft picks.
Sourdif on RMNB
- About a year ago, the Caps traded two draft picks to Florida for Sourdif. And when we say two draft picks, we really mean one draft pick and then 16 percent of another draft pick. They signed him to a very cheap contract.
- Chris Cerullo was concerned about the price the Caps paid for Sourdif given the other similar players in the organization. Going through that list of players will probably be part of the comments.
- Carbery on Sourdif: “I would probably say just the way he moves. He’s quick.”
- On becoming a full-time NHLer: “I’m going to keep getting better and better.”
- The NHL was rude.
- Dowd, Duhaime, and Sourdif teamed up early: “It’ll be nice to try and develop a little chemistry.” Yeah, they played less than 90 minutes together.
- Carbery evaluated Justin Sourdif at center.
- His first goal as a Capital came with an assist by Logan Thompson.
Justin Sourdif grew up a Capitals fan. Now, he’s Alex Ovechkin’s teammate: ‘It’s unreal’
- On playing against the Panthers for first time: “Three years in that organization. I learned a lot from those guys over there.” Sourdif scored in that game.
- In November he was centering the second line.
- Lower-body injury in December.
- Carbery on his expectations: “I couldn’t care less what his goals and assists look like at the end of the night.”
- Paul Maurice on Sourdif’s time in Florida: “He had some of the worst luck that you can have as a player here.”
Justin Sourdif notches four career firsts after scoring twice from the bakery against Rangers
- Watch this one: Massive hit on Thomas Chabot, first NHL fight against Drake Batherson
- He got banged up from that, we think.
- Tom Wilson dumped (sport drink) on Sourdif’s head afterwards.
- McMichael on Sourdif’s big game: “He was a one-man breakout.”
- Took a puck to the face. Missed a little more than a week.
- This OTGWG against Carolina was huge.
- Sporting the Black History specialty jersey, which was excellent.
- Sourdif explains how the ‘Chili Gate’ prank became a “big problem” in the Capitals locker room.
Your Turn
Will we all come around on Sourdif next year or will it be more of the vive la sourdifférence?
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