John Carlson is the Capitals player who is most likely to get the fanbase absolutely tilted, just positively malding.

By the Numbers

Visualization by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows lots of information for the player over the season. A short description of each chart:

• Most common teammates during 5-on-5
• Ice time per game, split up by game state
• 5-on-5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
• 5-on-5 adjusted shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red)
• Individual scoring events by the player
• 5-on-5 adjusted offensive (black) and defensive (red) zone starts

Fan Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:

On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?

1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM

The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.

Exit Interview

Peter’s Take

Tied with Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson has the longest contract among Caps players, expiring in the summer of 2026. How you feel about that deal depends on where you fall in The Carlson Paradigm. Are you a person who appreciates his genuinely special offensive contributions, or are you a miserable goblin who gets bent out of shape when he makes a galactic-tier goof-up that costs his team big time? I’m not being mean; I’m definitely in the latter group.

But let’s make the nice case first. Without a doubt, Carlson is an elite offensive defender. Evolving Hockey’s GAR stat says he adds 5.7 goals above replacement to the team’s offense, highest among Caps defenders and just barely behind Evgeny Kuznetsov among all skaters.

Carlson ranks 28th among defenders in his five-on-five points rate (1.2 points per hour), but he’s in the top-ten if you go in primary assists per hour. He’s less special during the power play (32nd of 81 defenders who played at least an hour of five-on-four), which where we’d all like to see him setting up Alex Ovechkin’s one-timer more effectively. But I think it’s safe to say that Carlson’s got a scoring touch that’s special in his position. That’s sort of beyond debate now.

It’s the just other side of the puck that drives everyone bananas. Here’s one example.

This is from Game Five of the playoffs. At the blue line, Carlson sees a loose puck coming for him. Rather than confidently controlling the puck, he opts for risky offensive big slapshot. He whiffs, the puck exits the zone, and Florida brings the score within one goal.

What I’m doing here is cherry-picking. This is not exactly analytically rigorous, but I wanted to show the most dramatic example of how Carlson’s pattern of play can hurt his team. Because they’re so dramatic, plays like this are what stick in our minds, even if they’re not necessarily indicative of the player overall.

Except Carlson’s defensive downsides are undeniable as well. Opponents generate more high-danger chances and expected goals (11.3 and 2.6 per hour, respectively) when he and partner Martin Fehervary are on the ice. And going by the defensive component of the goals-above-replacement table above, Carlson and his partner Fehervary are the weakest defensive players on the team outside Kuznetsov and Ovechkin, with whom they shared a lot of ice time.

Over at Japers Rink, JP sometimes discusses “the big mistake” —  a anecdotal mistake that is so grievous that it occludes our thinking and gets punished by coaches, especially, in my opinion, if that player is younger. Carlson certainly makes big mistakes, but he’s often escaped criticism for them. Not so much anymore.

When asked about the loss to the Panthers, Caps GM Brian MacLellen said it was “basically mistakes, lack of execution. I think some of those mistakes were made by our key guys, too.”

There will be more to discuss here once we get to Martin Fehervary’s review (Friday, May 27). I’ll leave it here by reminding us all that Carlson’s contract is big and long as Shai-Hulud, but perhaps his role within the team is now being scrutinized. That’s good; some adjustment to how he balances O and D would be prudent.

According to Orson Welles

Carly on RMNB

• Elf Shorts. Gina Carlson on the elf shorts: “He got these elf shorts for wrapping. He came home from practice and put them on right away to wrap.” Okay.
• Carlson went into COVID protocol in mid-January. He returned about a week later.
• Carlson on the team’s slump in January: “I don’t think anyone expects this to go on forever. It’s tough as a player, I’m sure it’s tough as a coach too. You have high expectations of yourself”
• Pride tape.

• Jamie Benn did an iffy cross-check on Carlson but escaped discipline.
• Carlson was the second star of the week in early April.
• Before the season was up, he became the 17th defender in NHL history with four 50-assist seasons.
• Sam Bennett rocked Carlson with a high hit in Game One, but Carlson played through it.

Your Turn

Do Carlson’s offensive gifts outweigh his defensive deficits? How would you use him differently next season, if at all?

Read more: Japers Rink