The Washington Capitals had one of the most talked-about offseasons in the NHL, and it appears their front office’s work has paid off, at least in the eyes of analytical models predicting the outcome of the 2026-27 season.
MoneyPuck, one of the leaders in that space, recently released its model’s first guess at how the playoff picture could shake out. After missing the postseason for the first time under head coach Spencer Carbery, the math says the Capitals have the second-best playoff odds in the Metropolitan Division (58.4 percent), behind only the Carolina Hurricanes (90.9 percent).
Among all teams in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals have the sixth-best playoff odds, also trailing the Tampa Bay Lightning (75 percent), Florida Panthers (67.4 percent), Ottawa Senators (62.4 percent), and Montreal Canadiens (60.8 percent).
Looking further ahead, the Capitals have the 11th-best odds (3.5 percent) of winning the Stanley Cup. The same five teams in the East rank ahead of them there, as well as the Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, and Edmonton Oilers.
Last season, the Capitals finished 43-30-9, earning 95 standings points to finish fourth in the Metro and just behind the Senators for the second wild-card playoff spot. Despite missing the postseason, they recorded the seventh-most regulation wins in the NHL, and their plus-19 goal differential was the biggest plus margin to miss the playoffs since 2009.
Since then, Washington has added several marquee pieces to their roster, including high-scoring forwards Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou, and Boone Jenner, as well as hulking defenseman Vincent Desharnais. The team will also have prized rookies Cole Hutson and Ilya Protas ready to play their first full NHL seasons.
The Capitals will renew their charge toward the franchise’s second Stanley Cup against the NHL’s defending champion Hurricanes on October 2.
