Nicklas Backstrom: 2022-23 season review

Nicklas Backstrom had a life-altering hip surgery last year.

By the Numbers

For on-ice percentages, 50 percent means even: both teams possess the puck evenly. Higher is better, lower is worse.

Isolated Impact by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties.

Player Card by Evolving Hockey

About this player card: This image from Evolving Hockey shows an overview of the player across different parts of their game. At top right are the players percentile rank (1 is worst; 100 best), overall and on offense and defense separately. Higher numbers are in blue. Below are the player’s contributions in different compartments of the game using the goals-above-replacement or GAR metric. Higher numbers (again in blue) mean the player adds value compared to an average AHL call-up player.

Fan Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:

On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?

1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM

The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.

Exit Interview

Peter’s Take

I dunno, man. I don’t want to write this. I adore Nicklas Backstrom. I have for 15 years. He’s a core part – not just of the Capitals – but of how I relate to the Capitals. So please appreciate how much I don’t want to be writing this.

Based on his 2022-23 performance, Backstrom may not be able to compete at the NHL level anymore. He was not fast before his hip surgery, and I don’t think he got any faster since it. He’s still got the hands and eyes to be a playmaker in favorable contexts, but I don’t think he can protect the puck as well along the half wall during the power play. I think he’s still got defensive value, but he can’t lead a rush attack. During his shifts, the offense goes limp, putting up the second lowest rate of shot attempts (just ahead of his common linemate, TJ Oshie). Oshie and Backstrom skated together for under two hours, possessing just 41 percent of the shot attempts and getting outscored 6-3.

Using Evolving-Hockey’s catch-all goals-above-replacement (GAR) stat, Backstrom’s impact on the team (by rate, not totals) was better than Evgeny Kuznetsov’s, but that’s it.

This will come up again in the Tom Wilson review, but I need to plead ignorance on injury recovery timelines. I learned only a few months ago that ACL injuries often take a year to fully come back from, and I have no idea if there’s a similar pattern for hip resurfacing. I kinda think the NHL doesn’t know that either. Backstrom says he’s eager to return, but MacLellan said he wants Backstrom to think about it, so there’s some dissonance there.

I worry that deep down we think the ideal endgame is retirement through long-term injured reserve. Not to be cynical, but it would be a trivial thing for Backstrom to fail his physical in a few months. I doubt that’ll happen, and I hate that this is where my mind’s at. I love this player, and I just hope the operation has made him more happier and healthier.

Nicke on RMNB

• Backstrom hit the ice for the first time in late October.
• A month later he was practicing with the team in a non-contact jersey.
• The Caps gave away a Backstrom salt-and-pepper shaker at Thanksgiving. Actually, did people finally receive those?
• Backstrom signed autographs at a Toys4Tots thing here in Frederick. It was lovely.
• TJ Oshie on Backstrom: “Backstrom’s mind is made out of steel. He just doesn’t get too high, he doesn’t get too low. I still really look up to that in him because even just in a period there’s so many ups and downs in between your shifts. He’s just always even-keeled.”
• By December Backstrom was traveling with the team. By the middle of the month he was in a yes-contact jersey.
• Peter Laviolette on Backstrom’s and Wilson’s recoveries: “These guys are looking really good to me out on the ice. Not there yet, but the fact they’re with us participating and pushing, just seeing them inside the room, is a big boost.” We had like 20 stories of Laviolette giving updates on Backstrom; I cannot link them all.
• Backstrom was the first person to hug Ovechkin after his 800th goal.
• On Ovechkin: “Ovi deserves all the credit. That’s who he is — a natural goal-scorer. It’s just so natural for him to score and he just keeps racking up the goals.”
• Just before the new year, Backstrom entered COVID protocol.
• On his hip: ‘”I have no pain and I’m able to skate and move the way I want to.”
• Backstrom returned to play on January 8.
• His first point came three days later, an assist on an Oshie goal.
• Andy Murray had the same surgery as Backstrom. Murray says it’s a myth you can’t come back from it.
• At the end of January, Backstrom scored his first and only goal of the season. It was against Ilya Samsonov.
• Look at this very happy Backstrom fan.
• On next season: “Hopefully I can get a good summer here and get ready from the start next year.”
• MacLellan on next season: “He’s going to have to make a decision on his career.”

Your Turn

Does he still have it?

This article would not be possible with HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones. Please consider joining us in supporting them. For people interested in learning more from those resources, we recently published video walkthroughs.