I’ve been taking a different approach to the Twenty Games In series this time around. Instead of checking off the same old boxes (goaltending, special teams, 5v5, etc.), I’ve been analyzing only the qualities of the 2019-20 Washington Capitals that I find most interesting.

Today, I think it’s important that we zoom out as much as possible and see how the team has evolved over the last few seasons. I promise you will like where we have ended up.

It’s an open secret that the Capitals have not been good at controlling five-on-five play since the end of the 2016-17 season. Despite having the puck less, however, they’ve remained strong at outscoring their competition, an effect that finds its causes in hard-to-quantify offensive tactics, above-average finishing talent, and just plain-old luck.

Using HockeyViz’s heatmaps, we can see where the Caps take most of their shots over the last four seasons. The maps go from oldest at left, to newest at right. Red means more shots from that location, blue means fewer. Ideally, you want a big red blob closest to the opponent’s net. But that’s not what we get.

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

In general, I’d say this means that Washington’s offensive virtues remain kinda ineffable. Shot-location maps and shot-quality metrics like expected goals don’t have data on cross-slot passes prior to a shot, a tactic is often key to Washington’s scoring. (That and having a lot of really good shooters.) So far, those tactics, finishing, and good luck seem to still be driving Washington’s offense, which is third best in the league.

Now to defense. Those three same underlying causes cannot excuse Washington’s recent trouble at limiting quality chances from their opponents. The Caps were a bottom-tier team at shot suppression in 2017-18 and 2018-19 — coincidentally Braden Holtby‘s supposed nadir — but look at how things have changed this season.

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

For the first time since 2016-17, the Caps are an above-average defensive team. That bodes well for Holtby, and it is owed in part to three important improvements.

First, Washington’s defensive corps is impressive. Michal Kempny looks healthy again, Jonas Siegenthaler is a solid option, Nick Jensen has Alzner-ian gap control skills (masked temporarily by bad luck), and Dmitry Orlov is having a banner year. Despite having fewer star players than in 2016-17, I think you could argue this is the best blue line Washington has had since at least then.

Second, the bottom-six forwards seem much stronger than in the past. Various versions of the fourth line have been successful, but it’s clear that Nic Dowd, Brendon Leipsic, and Garnet Hathaway are terrific options for depth play.

Lastly, and this one I find most interesting, Evgeny Kuznetsov appears to be working on his two-way play. After an execrable season in which he was sincerely one of the worst defensive forwards in hockey — and also after a spotty first couple weeks after returning from suspension, Kuznetsov has been more involved in play without the puck. It’s showing up in the numbers. Below are color-coded rates for expected goals per hour by Washington and its opponents when Kuznetsov is on the ice.

While he’s still far away from his Johansson-Williams heyday, Kuznetsov looks to have turned a corner. Opponent expected goals are down a quarter from last season. These are still early returns, and the overall trend will certainly evolve, but I remain cautiously optimistic here. I’m only slightly worried about his diminished offensive rates, though that merits a deeper look.

For Washington’s marquee scorers, I’ve pulled from Natural Stat Trick individual and on-ice expected goal rates from the past four seasons. Let’s begin with individual numbers.

As we’ve already plundered from Pat, Jakub Vrana is in the midst of a thundering breakout season that deserves far more attention that it has received so far, though maybe Saturday’s shootout goal will begin to change that.

Alex Ovechkin‘s numbers are also up, which I suspect is a result of his superhuman conditioning and durability in addition to the solid support Reirden and MacLellan have given him. He’s on track for fifty goals right now — and that’s without a significant boost in his shooting percentage.

We see individual numbers slightly down for Wilson, Eller, Oshie, and Backstrom, but those do not concern me — their on-ice numbers make up for it. To that point, here are those same players in the same order, but with their team-level expected goal rates while each player is on the ice.

With the exception of Kuznetsov, everyone is enjoying an uptick in on-ice offense. I think this is one of those stats that you can just feel. Caps games have been a lot of fun to watch recently (with few exceptions) because the team is doing what they’re good at (i.e. scoring) more often.

With the constellation of improvements at both ends of the ice, I’d say that the Washington Capitals look better right now than they have at any point since before they won the Stanley Cup. And, having bested the Boston Bruins while tired and injured on Saturday night, I’d say they’re the best hockey team in the world right now.

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