With two humiliating losses in the rear view (and a third game that was one Ovi miracle away from joining them), it’s become obvious that the Washington Capitals are in a slump.
My goal today isn’t to say why the Caps are slumping or how to fix it. I just want to provide a collection of the facts.
By Peter Hassett 4 years ago
Despite a tough schedule, the Washington Capitals have taken points from seven of their first nine games and now sit second place in the Metropolitan Division. New depth players have slotted in well, and veteran defender John Carlson leads the league in points.
Overall, things are good for the Washington Capitals. But how they’re good is unfamiliar territory for the team.
By Peter Hassett 4 years ago
In my story last week cheekily apportioning blame for the Caps’ slump, my most pointed words were for Washington’s goalies. During five-on-five during the slump, Braden Holtby has saved 86.5 percent of shots and Pheonix Copley has saved 85.9 percent. These are two very bad performances. It’s neither difficult nor incorrect to identify them as the root cause the seven-game losing streak.
But the losing streak has also sparked a spirited conversation about team defense, which I understand to be the revolutionary concept that an entire team is supposed to play good defense. The implication is that head coach Todd Reirden is ultimately responsible for the recent underlying patterns beneath all the losing. This is wrong, but maybe not for the reasons you would think.
By Peter Hassett 5 years ago
The Washington Capitals’ loss in Montreal on Thursday felt like a failed attempt to defray the Canadiens’ comeback attempt, but that wasn’t it. The Canadiens controlled play for most of the hour and successfully exploited the Capitals’ defensive problems throughout. The Habs had already earned the win with their effort; they just had to wait for Braden Holtby’s goaltending to falter. And falter it did in the final minute of regulation, ending the Caps’ fruitless effort to win two games in a row and reigniting concern about Washington’s spotty defense in the 2018-19 season.
From our comments, you might think that Caps’ defensive problems are new and caused by the coaching change:
I’m not impressed with [new coach Todd] Reirden now and wasn’t excited about him taking over. He has the exact same defense corps as last season and it looks/feels worse.
I will support the team win or lose but we are looking way too bad considering our personnel for me to not consider the coaching to be an issue.
Without [former coach Barry] Trotz they look like the team they were before Trotz. I thought letting one of the better coaches in the NHL leave, after he won you a Cup, no less, was stupid at the time – looking even worse now.
This is wrong. If anything, the Caps’ team defense is probably a bit better than it was last season, but considering how last season ended it’s very easy to forget that fact.
By Peter Hassett 5 years ago
All cards on the table: I believe Braden Holtby is the best goalie in Caps history. Presidents’ Trophies, Vezina Trophy, elite playoff performance (notwithstanding last year), you know the drill.
That said, it’s obvious Holtby is having a down year. I’ve said in the past that Holtby’s struggles in 2017-18 are the cost he bears for the team’s decisions last offseason, but it’s hard to be certain about stuff like that. Hockey is a complicated game with lots of moving parts, so I can understand why assigning blame personally on the goalie is popular with some people, who all seem to be Facebook commenters for some reason:
Ryan And don’t y’all dare blame Holts!!! Hahaha totally being sarcastic! It’s all him guys. We aren’t the best in D or even in goals but to make excuses for a goalie that is so “great” is just a joke. Bench his ass and watch what we do!!!
Mike Cant wait to hear all the its not Holtbys fault blame the defense. Caps held them to 19 shots on net Holtby should have saved them all. Fyi 0 shutouts this season. Not the same Holtby in net this season.
Michael Grubauer should be the starting goalie. Holtby is absolute garbage this season. Almost March and not one shutout, almost 3 goals against average, and 10 goals against in last two games. He is done. Trade is sorry ass and move on.
Eric If Holts hadn’t let in those 3 soft goals in the first, it’d be a different game. Caps completely dominated from the 2nd period on.
Robert Yep. Love holtz but he needs to sit for a bit. Not all in him but Grubs stops atkeast two of those.
(I did not edit the typos because I’m an unkind person.)
I actually think these people are generally right, but maybe for the wrong reasons. Yes, Holtby is not the goalie he was last season. Even he would agree to that. But I think the cause for the drop-off is both apparent and out of his control. If Holtby were backstopping another team right now, I think he’d probably be doing just fine. Not great, but fine.
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
Braden Holtby got lit up on Saturday night. Allowing six goals on 33 shots, Holtby had one of the worst nights of his season. At first, I assumed it was the worst night of his season, but then I checked. I quickly realized how bad it’s been in Washington lately.
This is a story not so much about Holtby, but rather what Holtby’s been subjected to by his teammates, his coach, and his general manager.
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
Washington goalie Braden Holtby is good. We know this. Holtby won the award for the league’s best goalie two seasons ago and was runner-up last year. He has the league’s highest 5-on-5 save percentage and fifth highest goals-saved-above-average since he entered the league. He currently owns the second best all-time playoff save rate.
But 2017-18 has been cruel to Holtby. He’s still winning games (27-10-2), but his save percentage has taken a big dip. He’s not even in the Vezina conversation, and that has some folks on edge.
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
So I guess we’re doing this again.
The Washington Capitals are winning fewer games and winning by narrower margins than they had in previous seasons. This drop-off mostly comports with the team’s lessened ability to out-shoot and out-chance their opponents. But on a several occasions, Caps coach Barry Trotz has implied that the team is deliberately forgoing overall shot volume so they can take more high-quality shots. Most recently, Trotz described his thinking to the Sports Junkies on Wednesday morning.
It’s… well, it’s meh is what it is.
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
We’ve spent a lot of time this season talking about how the Caps are over-performing. We knew something was off twenty games in, but it really got amplified when the team hit the top of the division despite mediocre underlying numbers. The team suggested in The Washington Post that they might have a magic touch not surfaced in shot-attempt stats, but that didn’t really hold up under scrutiny. And while it’s possible that the team’s penchant for overpassing might have hidden benefits, most people agree that the Caps are a paper tiger this season.
But that discussion misses the mark, because the Caps’ offense isn’t the truly remarkable thing about this team.
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
So, I guess Ovi was right. The Capitals are not suck this year. With 59 points through 45 games at the start of their bye week, Washington sits in first place in the Metro and second in the East.
That accomplishment merits celebration and consideration. Many people, including me, expected the Caps to fall off this season (while still being a Good Team™). From an outcomes perspective (goals and wins), that simply has not happened. From a process perspective (smaller events like shot attempts), the Caps have dropped even farther than I feared.
I’m fascinated by this gap between outcomes and underlying process. I wonder what it portends for how we evaluate the team right now and how it should inform our expectations in the back half of the season. Because there are really only a few ways this will go down:
Or, put another way: what if I’m wrong about everything?
By Peter Hassett 6 years ago
