Meet the new Caps, same as the old Caps: Snapshot 1

November 3, 2019 11:08 am

With 23 points in 15 games, the Capitals are technically the best team in the league, but the Boston Bruins have played two fewer games and sit just one point behind the Caps. After one month of hockey, that Bruins team seems almost flawless, and they should be the measuring stick for every other team in the NHL.

Washington’s not quite up to that level just yet, but they could get there. Let’s do the snapshot.

That’s right. The snapshot’s back. This is a regularly recurring feature in which we look closely at Washington skaters’ five-on-five play and see what can learn — and sometimes what we cannot learn, because this feature sometimes gets downright philosophical. It’s as much about the process and the conclusions. So let’s get started.

Below are Natural Stat Trick’s adjusted five-on-five data for Caps skaters as of Sunday, November 3. I’ve highlighted some interesting points in powderpuff pink. A glossary follows the tables.

Forwards

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	SA% Rel	GF%	PDO
Eller	15	183	61.0	+11.7	51.4	0.974
Vrana	15	173	55.9	+4.7	50.9	0.989
Panik	8	76	55.2	+1.3	48.5	0.994
Hathaway	15	157	55.0	+3.7	55.9	1.009
Hagelin	15	165	53.1	+0.7	46.0	0.983
Dowd	11	81	52.4	-0.5	59.3	1.019
Wilson	15	195	52.4	+0.4	45.7	0.972
Ovechkin	15	228	51.8	-0.4	53.5	1.007
Leipsic	15	129	51.7	-0.9	57.5	1.038
Backstrom	15	220	50.3	-2.5	53.7	1.013
Stephenson	11	110	49.8	-5.2	66.6	1.049
Oshie	15	208	49.7	-3.6	53.2	1.017
Boyd	3	24	45.6	-7.0	81.3	1.228
Kuznetsov	12	149	45.4	-6.8	57.6	1.051

Defenders

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	SA% Rel	GF%	PDO
Fehervary	3	41	60.9	+0.5	60.9	0.999
Siegenthaler	15	217	55.9	+4.8	57.3	1.007
Orlov	15	273	53.0	+1.5	37.1	0.955
Jensen	15	224	52.8	+0.2	28.3	0.933
Gudas	15	210	52.5	+0.9	64.9	1.055
Carlson	15	269	48.8	-5.5	64.4	1.064
Lewington	5	50	48.0	-1.7	23.2	0.900
Kempny	7	112	47.0	-6.1	69.9	1.163

Glossary

GP – Games played.
TOI – Time on ice in minutes
SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
SA% Rel – Relative shot-attempt percentage. The difference in SA% when the player is on the bench versus on the ice. 0% means even.
GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice. 50% means even.
PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice. 1 means even. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, that it is annoying.

Notes

Let’s start appropriately with a ton of caution. Fifteen games is not a lot; I usually reserve drawing conclusions until at least twenty into a season. Most skaters have under 200 minutes right now, and that’s just not enough to grant us any certainty. For now, let’s pull our punches.
Another important caveat: the shot-location fiasco has made stats like high-danger scoring chances and expected goals untenable right now. The brief version of the story is this: the NHL’s data about where shots are taken appears to have changed from last season, leading to reduced clarity in statistical models that take location into account. The NHL acknowledged the problem and is in progress on repairing the data, but it does not appear to be fully fixed yet. I’m going to hold out on using those stats for now.
Enough bloviating. Let’s talk about the Caps. Washington started off the season on a tear — owning the puck to a degree we have not seen in years, but it did not last. After four games, the team cooled off a lot and seems to have settled in attempting around 52 percent of the shots in games. That’s about 10th best in the league. Nothing to scoff at and a big improvement from last season, but not world-beater/Boston Bruins status.

Washington’s improvement at possessing the puck can be attributed mostly to shot suppression. Below are attempt rates for the Caps and their opponents over the last four seasons. Opponents are getting about eight percent fewer shots against the Caps since last season. I suspect the change is even more pronounced in shot quality, but we’ll have to come back to that. For now, maybe it’s satisfactory to say these Caps look most like the 2016-17 team than any other recent version. That’s really good.

Okay, let’s talk about individuals, starting with the ageless wonder, Alex Ovechkin. In defiance of time itself, he continues to be the sport’s premiere scoring threat. He has eleven goals, and they’re coming like they always have: from overwhelming shot volume. Now in his mid-30’s, Ovechkin’s shot rate remains high.

We can chalk that up to Ovi’s one-of-a-kind resiliency and intuition for playmaking, but it’s also the result of getting more time on attack. Unlike last season, the Caps are outshooting their opponents during Ovechkin’s shifts. Just like last season, the Caps are outscoring their opponent’s during Ovechkin’s shifts. I guess maybe there’s a hill somewhere ahead, but Ovechkin’s not even close to being over it.
And here’s the wilder part: Ovechkin’s not even leading the Caps in offense rates. It’s actually 23-year-old Jakub Vrana who is attempting more shots than anyone else on the team. Ovechkin takes 20.5 per hour; Vrana takes 21.8, second highest in the league behind Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher. It’s going to be a big, big year for Jake.
It’s already a big, big year for John Carlson. His October was the stuff of legend. By the end there, Carlson’s output was definitely boosted by some friendly percentages. His 13.8 on-ice shooting percentage is fourth highest among NHL defenders with 100-plus minutes, and his PDO is top-10. But it’s also important to note that 16 of his 23 points are primary; he either scored the goal or passed directly to the guy who scored the goal. Meanwhile, Carlson’s got the lowest on-ice shot-attempt percentage (SA%) among full-time defenders, 48.8 percent, so I think a strong regression is coming, but his scoring talent is undeniable.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is Nick Jensen, whose .963 PDO is lowest on the team, making him appear terrible even though he definitely is not. The Caps have been outscored during Jensen’s shifts 13 to 5 despite Jensen having the best shot suppression impact on the team. That is a perfect example of sample size lying to us. I don’t want to get into goalies today, but when Holtby slumped, he increased the variance in distortion between process and results among skaters. Jensen’s process is excellent. The results will catch up.
That’s probably a good segue into Evgeny Kuznetsov, who missed the season’s first three games due to suspension. Once Kuznetsov returned, Washington’s ability to drive play plummeted. Measuring by shot attempts, the Caps are a 45.4-percent team when Kuznetsov is on the ice and a 52.2-percent team when he’s on the bench. That’s a profound negative impact on controlling play, but one that has — so far — been masked by some charitable percentages. The Caps have outscored opponents 11 to 8 during Kuznetsov’s five-on-five shifts (57.6 GF%) thanks to his team-high 15-percent on-ice team shooting percentage. But Kuznetsov is allowing opponents a rate of shots similar to last season while losing about 10 percent of his offensive pace. There are some very serious problems here. We’ll have more about this soon.
I talked about this in October, but every new option for defense is a delight. Radko Gudas and Jonas Siegenthaler are both great depth options (52.5 and 55.9 SA% respectively), and knowing Fehervary and Djoos could step in should be a great comfort. Even Tyler Lewington wasn’t a significant drag. The defensive corps of the Caps is as strong as it has been in years.
The depth at the forward positions is the same. The top-six players by shot-attempt percentage are all bottom-six players in the lineup. That means the Caps are controlling play even when their stars are off the ice. Lars Eller seems to really be benefitting from his new wingers, as his 61-percent share of the shots puts him in the league’s top ten. I don’t know if the difference between 2C and 3C is all that meaningful in practice, but I know which one I consider Eller to be.
I have chosen to adopt Chandler Stephenson as my ne’er-do-well bad boy of the season. I have at times in the past maligned this nasty child for his lack of offense, and it appears my chiding has worked. Stephenson’s individual offense rate has doubled since last year. He’s at 10.4 shot attempts per hour. That’s more than Nicklas Backstrom. My terrible son is Actually Good now.