TJ Oshie defied the aging curve by hitting 25 goals in his age-32 season, but for Oshie hitting the net seems to come at the cost of getting hit.
|69||games played, nice|
|18.6||time on ice per game|
|51.0||5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage, adjusted|
|49.5||5-on-5 expected goal percentage, adjusted|
|60.0||5-on-5 goal percentage, adjusted|
About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows various metrics for the player over the course of the season. A short description of each chart:
My biggest apprehension about TJ Oshie upon signing his extension a couple years ago was how his offensive rates had been steadily declining.
Well, lookee here.
Oshie’s 2018-19 saw substantial increases in his offense at even strength, which was the main factor in him hopping back over 20 goals after falling just two short last season. Along with Vrana, Connolly, and (obviously) Ovechkin, Oshie was a leading countervailing force against Washington’s declining offense.
But there were problems. Despite our hopes, Oshie was unable to help Kuznetsov steady his play. Though opponents got marginally less offense against Oshie-Kuznetsov, Washington’s own offense dropped off significantly.
And once the Caps hit the postseason, something big was wrong with Oshie. He was out-attempted during five-on-five 72 to 29, and the Caps controlled less than one-fourth of the expected goals when he was on the ice. In Game Four, Warren Foegele boarded Oshie, breaking his collarbone and ending his season. For Oshie it was a brutal end to a brutal series, and the only bright side is that the injury didn’t involve his head, where Oshie has had at least five concussions.
I worry for Oshie’s long-term durability. Signed through 2025, Oshie is a major part of Washington’s plans for the future. His scoring this season is very encouraging for that future, but I fear there’s a certain threshold for punishment he can take, and once he reaches it there will be a reckoning. Man, I hope not.
Why didn’t Oshie-Kuznetsov work out as a pairing? And do you think there’s something about how TJ Oshie plays that puts him at higher risk for injury?
Read more: Japers Rink
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