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    Home / Analysis / Twenty Games In: Where We Stand

    Twenty Games In: Where We Stand

    By Peter Hassett

     0 Comment

    November 24, 2014 11:15 am

    Rob Carr

    Photo: Rob Carr

    With about a quarter of the 2014-15 season gone, we’re running a series on RMNB about where the Caps stand and where they’re heading. I’ve already gone into some detail, and I’ll have more analysis and opinion coming in the next few days, but for now let’s take a bird’s eye view.

    Forgive me, I’m about to draw some pretty broad conclusions.

    The Capitals are mediocre, but keep reading.

    At scoring, they’re neither good or bad; they’re just about even. They’ve got a coin flip’s chance at making the playoffs.

    But the Caps’ goaltending and shooting are both below average and are both likely to get better. The Caps are outshooting their opponents convincingly, suggesting that they’ll start outscoring their opponents in the future, although the team will continue to get into trouble when protecting a lead.

    Special teams look stable. Washington’s power play is second best in the league and looks to remain that way. The penalty kill is in the middle of the league, and projects to stay there as well.

    In short, the Capitals’ record is unremarkable, but there are encouraging signs below the surface– and the team has opportunity and motive to get even better.

    Lemme break it down.

    Standings

    standings
    9-8-3  Record after 20 games
    20th Standings position in the league
    3rd Standings position in the Metropolitan Division
    48.9% Chances the Caps make the playoffs, according to Sports Club Stats

    The Basics

    Goals For
    goals-per-game

    Goals Against
    goals-against-per-game

    2.75  Goal per game
    12th League rank in goals per game
    2.60 Goals against per game
    14th League rank in goals per game

    Possession

    possession
    53.1%  Score-adjusted corsi– how many shot-attempts belong to the Capitals during 5v5, weighted by the score of the game
    10th League rank in score-adjusted possession
    53.6% Possession when the score is tied, 6th in the league
    45.5% Possession when the Capitals are leading by one goal, 15th in the league

    Scoring and Saving

    Scoring
    shooting

    Saving
    saving

    7.68%  Shooting percentage during 5v5, below average and 17th in the league
    90.54% Save percentage during 5v5, below average and 26th in the league
    98.22 PDO, the sum of scoring and saving, to indicate the predominantly luck-driven distance between possession and goals
    26th League rank in PDO, which is not considered a talent-driven stat

    Offense and Defense

    Shots Generated
    shots-created

    Shots Suppressed
    shots-against

    53.45  Shot attempts per 60 minutes during 5v5
    20th League rank in generating offense
    49.54 Opponent shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes during 5v5
    6th League rank in shot suppression

    Special Teams

    Power Play
    power-play

    Penalty Kill
    penalty-kill

    25.4%  Power-play conversion rate, 2nd best in the league
    82.30% Penalty kill rate, 14th in the league
    128.27 Shot attempts generated per 60 during power play, best in the league
    100.37 Shot attempts allowed per 60 during penalty kill, 14th in the league

    That’s it. I know there’s been a lot of passionate discussion on Facebook and Twitter about where the Capitals sit in each of these categories– a calibration of sorts. These are the facts, as best we understand them. To me, these all hint that the Capitals will climb the standings soon, but we shall see.

    twenty games in
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