Photo: Rob Carr
With about a quarter of the 2014-15 season gone, we’re running a series on RMNB about where the Caps stand and where they’re heading. I’ve already gone into some detail, and I’ll have more analysis and opinion coming in the next few days, but for now let’s take a bird’s eye view.
Forgive me, I’m about to draw some pretty broad conclusions.
The Capitals are mediocre, but keep reading.
At scoring, they’re neither good or bad; they’re just about even. They’ve got a coin flip’s chance at making the playoffs.
But the Caps’ goaltending and shooting are both below average and are both likely to get better. The Caps are outshooting their opponents convincingly, suggesting that they’ll start outscoring their opponents in the future, although the team will continue to get into trouble when protecting a lead.
Special teams look stable. Washington’s power play is second best in the league and looks to remain that way. The penalty kill is in the middle of the league, and projects to stay there as well.
In short, the Capitals’ record is unremarkable, but there are encouraging signs below the surface– and the team has opportunity and motive to get even better.
Lemme break it down.
|9-8-3||Record after 20 games|
|20th||Standings position in the league|
|3rd||Standings position in the Metropolitan Division|
|48.9%||Chances the Caps make the playoffs, according to Sports Club Stats|
|2.75||Goal per game|
|12th||League rank in goals per game|
|2.60||Goals against per game|
|14th||League rank in goals per game|
|53.1%||Score-adjusted corsi– how many shot-attempts belong to the Capitals during 5v5, weighted by the score of the game|
|10th||League rank in score-adjusted possession|
|53.6%||Possession when the score is tied, 6th in the league|
|45.5%||Possession when the Capitals are leading by one goal, 15th in the league|
|7.68%||Shooting percentage during 5v5, below average and 17th in the league|
|90.54%||Save percentage during 5v5, below average and 26th in the league|
|98.22||PDO, the sum of scoring and saving, to indicate the predominantly luck-driven distance between possession and goals|
|26th||League rank in PDO, which is not considered a talent-driven stat|
|53.45||Shot attempts per 60 minutes during 5v5|
|20th||League rank in generating offense|
|49.54||Opponent shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes during 5v5|
|6th||League rank in shot suppression|
|25.4%||Power-play conversion rate, 2nd best in the league|
|82.30%||Penalty kill rate, 14th in the league|
|128.27||Shot attempts generated per 60 during power play, best in the league|
|100.37||Shot attempts allowed per 60 during penalty kill, 14th in the league|
That’s it. I know there’s been a lot of passionate discussion on Facebook and Twitter about where the Capitals sit in each of these categories– a calibration of sorts. These are the facts, as best we understand them. To me, these all hint that the Capitals will climb the standings soon, but we shall see.
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