As Chris said, the Washington Capitals played pretty darn well against the Boston Bruins in regulation of Game Three. With nine minutes left in rego, the Caps had a lead and roughly an 80 percent chance to win the game. A win in Game Three would have given the Caps somewhere around a 7-in-10 chance to win the series, except obviously that didn’t happen. Marchand got that gritty goal to force OT, and then the Bruins took over.
Still, until Smith’s wraparound, the Caps had a coin-toss’s chance to get that pivotal win. Pivotal is the part I need to emphasize, as it’s hard to overstate how bad the Justin Schultz–Ilya Samsonov goof-up was.