I doubt anyone thought of Lars Eller‘s 2017-18 season — you know, the one in which he scored the Cup-winning goal — as a letdown. Still, he followed it up with a bounce-back outing that has me feeling real good about the future.
By The Numbers
| 81 | games played |
| 16.5 | time on ice per game |
| 13 | goals |
| 23 | assists |
| 51.8 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage, adjusted |
| 51.6 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage, adjusted |
| 52.0 | 5-on-5 goal percentage, adjusted |
Visualization by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows various metrics for the player over the course of the season. A short description of each chart:
- Most common teammates during 5-on-5
- Ice time per game, split up by game state
- 5-on-5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
- 5-on-5 adjusted shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red)
- Individual scoring events by the player
- 5-on-5 adjusted offensive (black) and defensive (red) zone starts
Peter’s Take
With on-ice percentages north of 50 percent, Eller made Washington’s third line a fearsome thing again. He won most shifts in a subtle role outside the top six while also filling in with the top lines when needed. But his scoring didn’t necessarily follow the pattern of his play, and on a team as charmed with its scoring as the Caps, Eller is a curious exception. He and Kuznetsov were the only Caps forwards to score fewer goals than they were expected to based on their individual shot volume and danger. His line controlled a bigger share of expected goals than anyone on the team, but he had the lowest five-on-five point rate of any Caps forward whose name doesn’t rhyme with blandler blephenson.
That’s so odd to me. Eller generated 0.74 expected goals per hour but scored 0.61 — which we can chalk up to a 7.5 shooting percentage (nearly identical to Kuznetsov) despite having a knack for taking shots from the low slot, as per this HockeyViz chart.
Maybe that’s ephemera and luck and therefore we shouldn’t worry, but I can’t help it; I’m a worrier. The Caps of the last two seasons have required their scoring to exceed expectation (and their goalies to do the same with saving) in order to succeed. With Eller and Kuznetsov not doing that magic lately — at least individually– could that presage a coming setback? Man, I hope not.
Next season will be one of change for Eller. For the first time in three seasons, he will probably be without Brett Connolly at his flank. The centers above Eller in the lineup will have their own struggles — Kuznetsov vs diminished expectations and Backstrom vs a new contract — leaving an opportunity for a bigger role and maybe bigger scoring. If the percentages play nice, he could hit twenty goals.
Lars on RMNB
- The first Dane ever to win the Cup, Eller was also the first Dane to bring the Cup home. He filled it with Koldskål. I don’t know what that is.
- Eller had a somewhat acrimonious exit from his last team, the Montreal Canadiens. This season, Eller scored four goals against them in three games, including a game-winner in November, backgrounded by a chorus of boos.
- In October, Eller got in his first NHL fight. It was with Brad Marchand. Get ready for some Brad Marchand content.
- A few months later, before Marchand and Eller met again, Eller declined to say if he would fight Marchand. And then, that night, this pathetic display happened:
- A war of the words followed. Eller on Marchand: “I don’t think there’s a lot of integrity in his game.” Marchand on Eller: “I haven’t looked at the stats sheet, but I really don’t feel I need to try to prove anything. He plays maybe 10-12 minutes a night. I’m playing 20.” Just for the record, here’s how Elyse closed out that story: “For the record, Eller averages 16:55 of time on ice and won the Capitals the Stanley Cup last season.”
- Eller suffered a lower-body injury in February but was not out long.
- After Eller got a big GWG in March, Jakub Vrana sang “Eye of the Tiger” to the team.
- Two Caps fans named their Stanley Cup baby after Eller. That baby got a puck from the man himself. Lucky baby.
- Prior to Game One of the postseason, Eller’s car broke down not far from the practice arena in Arlington. So Eller just left it there.
Your Turn
What does the likely exit of Brett Connolly mean for Lars Eller’s role? Do you think Eller could slot in higher in the lineup?
Read more: Japers Rink
