John Carlson will never get the credit he deserves.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 10 | goals |
| 42 | assists |
| 82 | games played |
| 25.9 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 47.5 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 58.8 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 45.1 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Peter’s Take
At age 34, John Carlson played 82 games, leading the league in total ice time and ice time per game in the process. His season is in the top-50 of most time played in a season since the lockout. And still he’s so easy to overlook – except when he’s making a mistake along the blue lines.
I guess let’s start there. Carlson making unwise pinches at the defensive blue line or losing an offensive-zone session during a power play with overly casual puck-carriage drives me nuts, and I know it does the same to you. Those moments stick out in our memories, and while they’re valid they do a disservice to our understanding to the overall impact of the player. For one example, despite those anecodes, the power play is very much better with him on the ice.
| Power play | Atttempt rate Δ | xG rate Δ | Goal rate Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Carlson | 99.2 | 8.8 | 6.6 |
| Without Carlson | 70.9 | 5.3 | 7.8 |
Three things to consider above: the rates are Washington’s rate minus opponents’ rates, so there are demerits for shorthanded chances. Despite that, the Caps were miles better (in attempt and expected goals) during Carlson’s shifts than without him. Two other notes: this is just the power play with Ovechkin, so I’d expect some dropoff after he’s been on the ice for a minute, when Carlson hits the bench. Lastly, the power play without Carlson scored more as a rate, though that can be entirely explained by shooting percentage.
I guess that is a fair number of caveats. I certainly don’t mean to invalidate people’s criticisms of the player; I just want them to be considered in context of his many virtues. In the past that had meant driving play and getting involved in the offense. This season he still did the latter, but the former has become more slight. I think the thing Carlson did best this season is play. He just played so much, eating an absurd amount of minutes on a team that frankly did not trust its defensive depth.
That is not a plan that will keep working. Carlson will turn 35 halfway into next season. He and Drew Doughty (also 34) can’t keep playing this much without killing themselves and their teams.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
Hockey history is filled with many controversies that have erupted in the community over the years. John Carlson is no exception. The 34-year-old Natick native called “Jumbo” by his friends and colleagues has an offensive flair that few can match, but is he the player with the answer when it comes to defense? Experts disagree to this very day.
JC74 on RMNB
- Sandin on his mentor relationship with Carlson: “He’s been on me a lot. Stuff I’m doing wrong and stuff I’m doing right. No, but he’s huge to be around, not just on the ice, but off the ice as well. He’s an unbelievable guy and obviously an unbelievable player as well. So for a young guy like me, it’s awesome to have him beside me.”
- On missing Backstrom: “I think you can tell by the feeling, it’s a little odd. As time goes on it’s still going to be odd. It’s going to be odd tomorrow coming here. It’s different when guys get hurt and they’re in and out of the locker room. That stuff is normal. You can notice the different feeling and it’s certainly not an easy thing for any of us or him.”
- With so many injuries, Carlson led all NHL defenders in ice time.
- The resemblance in this holiday ornament is uncanny.
Capitals Holiday Pack gifts are Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Darcy Kuemper ornaments
- In January, Carlson recorded his 500th assist. Only 33 other defenders have hit that mark. The Caps gave him a silver puck.
- Ovechkin to fans: “Vote for John Carlson to go to All-Star Game.”
- Carlson missed practices in January and March, suggesting he was at least in need of recovery time.
- Canes goalie Pyotr Kochetkov kicked Carlson. He should have been suspended.
- Ladies and gentlemen and esteemed enbies: Vanessa Carlson
- On his 1000th game, Carlson scored the game-tying goal. His kids joined him on the ice during warmups.
- On gratitude: “I’m just thankful that I get to call this place home and to do it with one team and especially a great special organization like this one.”
- Late in the season, Carlson set the franchise record for goals by a defender.
Your Turn
How does the ice time and 82 games played affect your opinion of Carlson?
