In October, you very kindly gave your predictions for the 2024-25 season. You were probably very wrong, I’m sorry to say. The season has not gone as expected, but that’s a good thing. By every measure the Capitals are outperforming expectations.
Let us now revisit our predictions and see how we’re faring at the halfway point, i.e. badly but in a good way.
The Caps will make the playoffs
87 percent of you said so, and you will be right. According to Moneypuck on Sunday morning, the Washington Capitals will make the playoffs in 99.4 percent of scenarios.
The Caps are on pace for 116 standings points right now, best in the league, slightly ahead of the Golden Knights. But you predicted the Caps would record only 95.6 standings points. That would still be better than last season (91 points) by a couple wins, so this is a complicated situation. You were right that these Caps are better, but you were way under in how much better.
Except for one person named jim, who said they’d record 188 standings points. No, jim, they will not.
I want to shout out Mary W. and Ryan, who put the Caps at 118 points. Right now, you’re the closest. For the record, I said the Caps would miss the playoffs with 89 points. Throw rotten tomatoes at me when you have the chance. I deserve it, and I’m happy to be wrong.
Ovi will not catch Gretzky
Alex Ovechkin sat at 853 goals before the season started. You said he’d score 37.3 goals, which would put him at 890, four shy of future governor of Canada, Wayne Gretzky. That’s odd since 64.4 percent of you said he’d catch Wayne this season.
Ovechkin missed 16 games with a broken leg (okay, fractured fibula, but that’s a bone in the leg and a fracture is a break, so I’m sticking with broken leg). He could play a maximum of 66 games, and he’s at a 0.74 goals per game pace right now, so that’d be about 49 on the season, bringing him to 902. But that was a very, very hot start for Ovi (he’s still at a career-high shooting percentage), and he’s had only (only!) two goals in the last five games, so regression feels likely.
It looks like the minority of us will be right. Ovechkin probably will not break the record this season. I predicted he would score only 28 goals this season, so I’ll be happy either way. In my opinion, the funniest and therefore ideal scenario is if Ovechkin scores 41 goals, putting him at 894, an exact tie with Gretzky, at the end of this season. Then we have all summer to deal with Ian being insufferable about tying versus passing, and we will have global anticipation for his first and record-breaking goal of 2025-26.
Tom Wilson will pass your goal prediction soon
Tom Wilson‘s best season total in goals was 24 in 2021-22, before he suffered an ACL injury. In my review from last season, I worried that his offense was gone, never to return. I put him down for 13 goals this season.
He hit that before Christmas.
The rest of you, wiser than me, predicted 22.6 goals for Wilson, 30, playing in his 12th season. He’s at 19 goals right now with 39 games to go. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 23 before January is over.
Wilson’s constant improvement since a major injury is a credit to the player: his perseverance, hard work, and ambition. But also it’s a crushing and repeating humiliation to his doubters, e.g. me, who look like the guy getting dunked on in a highlight playing on a loop, rictus-faced, getting bonked by some soaring dude’s kneecaps.
Jakub Vrana will play in about half the games
We weren’t sure in October what Jakub Vrana‘s role would be with the Capitals. He had barely made the team after a professional tryout agreement (PTO) during camp. On a one-year, league-minimum contract, Vrana’s expectations were varied.
On average, you predicted he’d play 44.1 games. So far he’s played in 25 of 43, pro-rating to 47 total. You kind of nailed it. And with Hendrix Lapierre down in Hershey, Vrana’s position seems more secure.
But not so fast!
Ethen Frank has arrived. And Sonny Milano is slowly getting healthy. And if the Caps are likely to make an upgrade anywhere, I think it’d be around that third line.
If he’s going to stay in it, Vrana’s going to have to keep proving himself every night he gets a sweater. He’s had only one point in his last five appearances. This could go either way.
Dylan Strome will lead the Caps in points
58 percent of you predicted Dylan Strome would repeat as the Caps points-leader. Strome had 67 points last season and is on pace for for almost 90 this season. In second place – and this was a surprise – was Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington’s best non-LT offseason pickup.
As of Sunday, here are the Caps point leaders:
| Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome | 43 | 12 | 34 | 46 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 43 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Tom Wilson | 43 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 43 | 7 | 26 | 33 |
| Connor McMichael | 43 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 27 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Jakob Chychrun | 38 | 12 | 17 | 29 |
| John Carlson | 43 | 3 | 24 | 27 |
| Taylor Raddysh | 43 | 4 | 14 | 18 |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 42 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Rasmus Sandin | 43 | 4 | 13 | 17 |
Gotta point out that Ovechkin has team-best 1.2 points per game. I’d say he could catch Strome despite missing more than a third of the season so far – except those two will share points on a lot of the same goals. In any case, he was in third place with 16 percent of the votes.
TJ Oshie will not play
85.7 percent of you agree. It’s sad, but it seems near-certain that TJ Oshie‘s playing career is behind him.
TJ Oshie watches Caps practice from bench at MedStar Capitals Iceplex
But that also means there’s a new life ahead of him. Oshie is charismatic and beloved and remains involved in the team. He can do anything wants. Legend.
The Capitals will get shut out five times
Okay, 4.9 times. So far it’s happened only once, in October, when Andrei Vasilevskiy blanked the Caps on 32 shots.
Even with the Caps offense cooling in recent weeks, they’re still getting almost a half a goal per hour more than last season in expected terms and a full-ass real scoreboard goal in actual terms. The Caps got shut out six times last season, which in hindsight we all agree sucked. This team is better in every way, and I will be shocked if they get shut out four more times in the final 39 games.
The Edmonton Oilers will win the Stanley Cup
Precisely one-third of you agreed that Connor McDavid‘s Oilers will be the champions in 2025. What you were maybe wrong about is that it feels like they’re Leon Draisaitl‘s Oilers right now.
Edmonton is current 7th in the league (by points pace, which is the only correct way to do this), so they’re a good pick. Washington is in first place by that measure, and eleven percent of you predicted they’d win the Cup. In October, that was an irresponsible guess and you should have felt bad about yourself; in January, I dunno. It could happen. Maybe now you’re a bold and innovative thinker.
My pick was the New Jersey Devils. Only two percent of voters were with me, but I’m feeling better about it every day. Moneypuck has them at 10 percent to win the Cup right now.
We don’t know who will finish in last place
But it probably won’t be the Columbus Blue Jackets, for whom twenty-five percent of you voted, including me. Columbus had a tragic offseason, so preseason expectations were tempered. Instead, they’ve been inspiring. Twenty-four year old Kirill Marchenko could hit 40 goals, Sean Monahan is handling big minutes well, and both are being supported by underrated defender Zach Werenski. Unless things go very badly down the stretch, Dean Evason is going to get a lot of Jack Adams votes. Well deserved.
Another quarter of you voted for the San Jose Sharks (67 point pace), who are steadily improving but still sit near the bottom of the league, ahead of only the Chicago Blackhawks, receiver of ten percent of votes and who are on pace for 57 points.
One voter picked the Washington Capitals to finish in last place. This person also picked the Washington Capitals to win the Stanley Cup. It’s jim again. If you know jim, please check in on them. And tell them they’re ruining my spreadsheets.
Ted Leonsis will not buy the Washington Nationals
Only 22 percent of you are correct, like me, in thinking that Ted Leonsis will buy the MLB’s Washington Nationals this year.
Last February, Nats owner Mark Lerner said the family was no longer interested in selling the team. In May, Ted Leonsis basically said, “don’t care, still gonna buy ’em.” In October, Thom Loverro wrote that Lerner himself is the holdout, and that the team will be up for sale again soon enough.
It’s happening, sorry to 78 percent of you. The only question is when. But also how much. And maybe also but what if not, in which case I’d be wrong for the second year in a row. Fine. I’m getting used to it.
