Connor McMichael became an NHLer this season, but he’s still got a long way to go.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 18 | goals |
| 14 | assists |
| 80 | games played |
| 16.0 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 46.9 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 48.1 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 39.7 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
I have to try to keep in mind that at the start of the 2023-24 season, it wasn’t even certain that Connor McMichael would be a full-time NHL player. He was probably fifth in a stack ranking (Strome, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Dowd) at the time, but then fortune stepped in, and McMichael became one of Washington’s most reliable forwards for the whole season. It’s only the most recent step on a wild journey for McMichael.
I was psyched about McMichael when he was a high-volume winger two seasons ago, but Peter Laviolette didn’t share the feeling. McMichael played only six games last year – he didn’t even get a season review! Now a full-time NHLer and a full-time center, his individual offense isn’t quite where I’d hoped it’d be, but he’s added a lot to his game.
Namely: transition to offense, maybe Washington’s biggest tactical weakness. When partnered with Anthony Mantha, McMichael was a breath of fresh air – fast, on-the-rush hockey with quickly developing scoring chances. No other line could pull that off (though the fourth line could be pretty exciting when they’d get out of the defensive zone). But McMichael badly lacks the playmaking and finishing talent that Evgeny Kuznetsov had, the skills that create high-danger shots and elevate teammates on the cycle, and the skills that made Kuznetsov a perfect mate for Alex Ovechkin.
Right now, McMichael is not that guy. His five-on-five time with Ovechkin was very unsuccessful. Together the Caps controlled 45.3 percent of shot attempts and got outscored 11 to 8. McMichael needs a fast winger with a quick release for a rush attack; Alex Ovechkin needs strong puck carriage and high-danger passes. It’s not a match.
At least not yet, McMichael is still young (23) and still developing. He’ll almost certainly sign an bridge-style extension this summer, and then it’s time for him to prove himself. Could he be a top-six center on a team that isn’t a disaster up there? Could he add cycling, forechecking, and net-front pressure to his skillset? It’s up to him.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
There is a panoply of qualities to celebrate about Connor Michael, the 27-year-old star center from Richmond Hill, Ontario. Since his selection as the first overall pick in the 2015 entry draft, the man they call McJesus has taken the hockey world by storm. He’s been nominated by his comrades to win the Lester B. Pearson Award, awarded annually to the National Hockey League’s most outstanding player in the regular season as judged by the members of the NHL Players’ Association, first awarded in 1971[1].
Tonight, McDavid will play in game seven against his Transcanadian rivals, the Vancouver Canucks.
CMcM on RMNB
- Carbery: “Confidence, playmaking ability, making plays when they’re there, making smart decisions when they’re not there. The total package.”
- Carbery was generally and uniformly positive about McMichael.
- It seems the team knew Backstrom was on his way out and McMichael would have to slot in pretty early on.
- McMichael was an early adopter at practice of TJ Oshie’s neck protectors.
- By November, McMichael was 2C — even when Kuznetsov was available.
- After Thanksgiving, and while a certain captain was cold, McMichael was a leading five-on-five scorer.
- Speaking of: McMichael’s first jersey as a kid was Alex Ovechkin.
- McMichael missed some time in December due to illness.
- In February, he made a major oopsie in overtime and blew a game to the Canucks. He and Carbery had a “brief conversation” about it.
- On the bright side, this was smooth goal.
- Another big highlight, McMichael’s game-winner over Seattle was crucial to the team’s playoff push.
- On becoming the team’s top center late in the season, Carbery: “He’s doing a hell of a job as our first-line center right now, playing in all situations — penalty kill, power play, playing against other top lines.”
- Expecting a bridge deal for McMichael this summer.
Your Turn
Can McMichael become a good center for Ovechkin or do the Caps need to go to the free agency market for that?
