OMG it’s Loffs Watch! Today’s episode of Loffs Watch may contain strobe lights and tobacco use.
Losing six games in a row could have been a tactical error for the Washington Capitals. Generally when one is in a playoff race against four other teams, one tries to accrue standings points through winning hockey games. The Caps went a different route. Let’s see how it’s played out for them.
Bad! The Capitals sit outside a playoff spot, one of three teams with 83 points (though the Flyers have one less game remaining). WC2, the second wild-card spot, now belongs to the Detroit Red Wings – more on them in a moment. The Islanders own third place in the Metropolitan, M3, one whole victory better than their Metro challengers.
It’s kind of looking like the cutoff to make the playoffs could be under 90 points. I’ve seen it around 92 before, but in some recent seasons it’s been closer to 100. I think this could mean either there’s a lot of parity or there’s a lot of mediocrity, but maybe that’s the same thing.
Washington’s playoff chances, according to leading predictive models:
| Source | % |
|---|---|
| HockeyViz | 29 |
| Moneypuck | 26 |
| The Athletic | – |
(I’ll update with The Athletic’s prediction once it’s available.)
Honestly, that’s better than I expected. Winning one point for the regulation tie blunted the impact. But still: everyone except Philadelphia is now more likely to make the playoffs than the Caps. For the four Metro teams, there’s just two spots available – unless Detroit steals one of them.
Detroit. They downed Buffalo last night and will rest today before welcoming Washington to town tomorrow. I asked the predictive models how important that game will be and they slapped me in the face. The Caps could improve almost 20 percentage points or drop the same. The Wings are favored, but I have this sinking feeling both teams will be playing for the loser point. If it’s tied late in regulation they may opt to negotiate a peace settlement instead of crossing center ice.
Much less important is tonight’s game between Toronto and Pittsburgh. The Pens could hop back up into M3 with a win. The game could help or hurt the Caps by a few points, so I’d watch – if only to rubberneck on the Crosby-for-Hart hype.
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