The Washington Capitals played their best hockey of the season in late November and December, when their lineup looked way different from today. On November 29, Caps forwards lined up like this for their late-night, 5-1 win over the Vancouver Canucks:

Ovechkin – Strome – Sheary
Milano – Kuznetsov – Mantha
Johansson – Eller – NAK
Protas – Dowd – Hathaway

Somehow without Wilson, without Backstrom, and without Oshie, this was the best lineup of the season, and it should serve as a guide on the Caps can best organize themselves for the stretch run.

When ranked by Moneypuck’s expected-goals percentage, all four of the November 29 lines appear in Washington’s top-ten for the whole season. Expected goals, or xG, considers how much each team shoots the puck and how dangerous those shots are – independent on finishing and saving. Fifty percent means both teams are generating the same amount of offense when a player is on the ice, and higher is better.

This list includes only lines who have played 20 five-on-five minutes together.

Just three of these ten lines are viable today. That’s a kick in the teeth, especially losing any combination of Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway, who were superb together and capable of facing tough opponents.

One surprise in the top ten is the number of times we see Lars Eller (traded to Colorado), who I think we can agree was in a down year. Most of his lines in the top ten had limited time together, but the fact that he was an ingredient in so many good recipes suggests Eller brought some value I overlooked.

Another surprise player is Nicolas Aube-Kubel, who appears in three of the ten lines and who just signed a one-year extension. I really like his role, that deal, and the whole player – aside from his discipline problems. NAK leads the remaining team in taken-penalty rate, and he does so without offsetting it by drawing a ton of penalties like former-leader Garnet Hathaway used to.

I am very encouraged to see Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome placing in the top ten twice, both with lines that are viable today. In addition to NAK and Oshie, Ovechkin and Strome also have a strong showing with Conor Sheary (53.9 percent of expected goals in a lot of minutes: 254). As part of my Promise Strategy thesis, keeping Ovechkin productive is one of Washington’s obligations right now, and Strome is definitely the best center for him. I wonder if Sheary’s chemistry with Ovechkin was a factor in keeping that player around through the end of the season.

Absent from the top ten is Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is Washington’s single biggest problem. Kuznetsov’s lines with Ovechkin have all performed poorly: 48.3% with Mantha, 46.9% with Sheary, and 44.6% with Wilson. Kuznetsov’s best line has been when he’s flanked by two strong possession players, Milano and Mantha, earning 54.5 percent of expected goals in 83 minutes. Otherwise, Kuznetsov is having a terrible season. On any Cup competitor, he would not be fit to play a top-six role.

Idle thought: I wonder if Kuznetsov might benefit from playing with Aliaksei Protas, who has proven an excellent defensive forward and whose name appears twice in the top ten. Protas is currently in Hershey. I believe the team likes him, but his waiver-exempt status has made him a convenient piece to move when needed. I hope as salary-cap pressure drops following the deadline that we’ll see more of him with the big club. I put Protas is in a bucket with Sonny Milano and Anthony Mantha as strong possession players who could be relied on to help Washington’s very bad middle-six centers.

Speaking of: here is what HockeyViz thinks of Nicklas Backtrom‘s and Evgeny Kuznetsov’s impacts on five-on-five play. Blue blobs mean teams take fewer shots from that part of the ice, red means more, so you want red blobs on top (offense) and blue blobs at bottom (defense).

(HockeyViz’s full graphics include special teams and penalty-drawing/taking, but I’ve removed them to focus the discussion.)

Both Kuznetsov and Backstrom have been terrible at generating offense (dropping Washington’s expected goal rates by nine and 12 percentage points, respectively). Kuznetsov has been one of the worst defensive forwards in the entire league according to Evolving Hockey’s goals-above-replacement component for even-strength defense, in addition to humans who watch the games. These players need sheltering, and there just aren’t enough two-way forwards on Washington’s remaining roster to go around. I’ll do my best.

Here is my idea of Washington’s best possible lineup for the rest of the season:

Ovechkin – Strome – Sheary
Milano – Kuznetsov – Mantha
Protas – Backstrom – Oshie
Wilson – Dowd – NAK

I think this is a mostly good lineup. The top six is unchanged from November 29. The third line is very, very weak. Backstrom and TJ Oshie have seen Washington control just 41.1 percent of expected goals in their 40 minutes together, way below even and just slightly above the yikes-that’s-not-really-competitive-hockey line of 40 percent. (Oshie’s also struggling this season, but there’s only so much downer shit I am willing to put in one story.) I’m hoping Protas could help that pairing, especially with retrievals and exits.

I threw poor Tom Wilson on the fourth line because I wanted to keep the top six in tact. I am ambivalent about him being there or on the third instead of Oshie. Also, I don’t know anything about Craig Smith, and I refuse to learn.

There are so many assumptions taken for granted in this exercise. I don’t know if these players are healthy enough to play or that the team wants to call up Protas. I don’t even know if they sincerely want to win games. I doubt they’ll ever run these lines. They sure aren’t running them this weekend. I’m not sure I’d want them to if they did. Really, this article has just been a self-indulgent, thousand-word excuse to determine what’s working (a lot!) and what’s not (also a lot!) among Washington’s forwards.

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Headline photo: Alan Dobbins/RMNB