Dmitry Orlov: 2021-22 season review

June 14, 2022 10:25 am

Dmitry Orlov is Washington’s most dependable defender, which is just a longer way to say “best” but without starting an argument about John Carlson.

By the Numbers

76	games played
21.0	time on ice per game
12	goals
23	assists
52.4	5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage
52.0	5-on-5 expected goal percentage
59.8	5-on-5 goal percentage

Visualization by HockeyViz

About this visualization: This series of charts made by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows lots of information for the player over the season. A short description of each chart:

Most common teammates during 5-on-5
Ice time per game, split up by game state
5-on-5 adjusted shot attempts by the team (black) and opponents (red)
5-on-5 adjusted shooting percentage by the team (black) and opponents (red)
Individual scoring events by the player
5-on-5 adjusted offensive (black) and defensive (red) zone starts

Fan Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player:

On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?

1 means VERY UNHAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM
2 means UNHAPPY
3 means NEITHER HAPPY NOR UNHAPPY
4 means HAPPY
5 means VERY HAPPY TO HAVE THEM ON THE TEAM

The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.

Peter’s Take

Another strong season from Washington’s best defender. The Capitals outscored opponents 64 to 43 during Orlov’s shifts while he recorded a career high in goals, which is just one way of saying Orlov has been good on both ends of the puck. Opponents shoot less when he’s on the ice (51.1 attempts per hour, lower than any other defender), but he had the highest five-on-five goal rate among them (despite shooting less than Carlson, who had a very low five-on-five shooting percentage). HockeyViz says opponent offense was down 12 percent against Orlov, while he’s steadily increased his offensive rates to just shy of ten attempts and 0.2 expected goals per hour.

I’ve given up the pipe dream of Orlov ever being a Norris finalist. He’s good, but he’s never going to be that top tier, which will be owned by Cale Makar for the foreseeable future anyway. Instead, Orlov will have to settle for being Washington’s best overall defender. He doesn’t have the bangarang offense of John Carlson, but he also doesn’t have the I-want-to-pull-my-hair-out downside of John Carlson. He’s got genuine chemistry with Nick Jensen, even if they sputtered in the postseason.

But here’s the rub: Orlov is now on the wrong side of age thirty, which is to say my side of age thirty. And he’s got one year left at his (team-friendly) $5.1M deal. Whatever you think of Dmitry Orlov’s peak era in Washington, it’s almost over.