Not many people would dispute that the Washington Capitals have some of the best high-end forwards in the NHL. Led by reigning Conn Smythe- and Rocket Richard-winner Alex Ovechkin, the Caps’ top-six forwards are a fearsome bunch, critical to the team’s overall success.

But despite sterling offensive numbers and lavish praise, all has not been right with the scoring lines in 2018-19. The reason why is now apparent.

On ice

• TOI = time on ice during 5-on-5 play
• SA% = shot-attempt percentage, the share of total attempts by either team that belong to WSH
• xGF% = expected goals-for percentage, the share of total expected goals (a function of shot volume and shot quality) by either team that belong to WSH
• GF% = goals for, the share fo total goals by either team that belong to WSH
• ZSR = zone start ratio, the share of non-neutral zone starts that begin in the offensive zone
• Sh% = team-level shooting percentage for WSH when player is on the ice
• Sv%  = team-level saving percentage for WSH when player is on the ice

Individual

• iSA/60 = player’s shot attempt rate per hour
• ixGF/60 = player’s expected goals per hour
• GS/60 = player’s game score per hour, a catch-all stat to describe total contributions to winning a game
• P1/60 = player’s primary points per hour
• iSh% = player’s shooting percentage
• Pen Diff = player’s penalty differential

Scoring, All Game Situations

As of November 24

Observations

• Before we delve into individuals, one thing that grabbed my attention was how zone-start deployments aren’t lining up with shot-attempt percentages. The top six’s most-offensively deployed forwards, Kuznetsov and Ovechkin, are also their worst at driving shot attempts, expected goals, and actual goals. Maybe that’s a sidelong way of making the strongest point of this article, so let’s just get into it now.
• Despite putting up 21 points, Evgeny Kuznetsov has been shockingly terrible in 2018-19. Actually, I’m not going to use any more adjectives. I will just use the numbers and let you hang your own descriptions on it.

• The chart above is for all NHL forwards over the last three seasons, with the numbers indicating how many high-danger chances their opponents get per hour. Kuznetsov’s seasons are annotated. Before he went down with a concussion, Kuznetsov was allowing opponents 18.5 high-danger chances per hour, highest among any forward by a lot (Boedker allows 16.3 in Ottawa, average is around 10.5). When his most common linemate was apart from Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin allowed opponents just 9.0.
• The change in Evgeny Kuznetsov’s game began at the beginning of 2017-18, when he lost Williams and Johansson as his linemates, but the change accelerated at the start of 2018-19. These line graphs below show cumulative differentials (shot attempts and high-danger chances) over the last three seasons.

• Kuznetsov’s 43.2 percent of shot attempts is lowest on the team except for two bottom-six forwards (Boyd and Smith-Pelly), but that figure is maybe better illustrated in two heatmaps from hockeyviz. At left is offense, at right is defense. Red means more shot attempts from the location, blue means fewer. Note that the red blob on the left-hand side of the offense chart is a common shooting location for Alex Ovechkin. Also note the size and severity of the red blob in front of the Caps net at right.

• Last note on Kuznetsov: Though his struggles have not been a big topic of conversation in general circles — perhaps because his point totals have been so stellar (though not offsetting his defensive shortcomings) — they have not gone overlooked within the Caps. I’m told Kuznetsov’s problems holding onto the puck and participating in the forecheck have caused conflict in the locker room. So, while his injury is unfortunate, I hope it affords him time to address the problems in his game.
• Tom Wilson returned from suspension roughly at the same time Kuznetsov was injured, so Wilson has been enjoying quite a halo effect in Kuznetsov’s absence. Some of it is unjustified, but not all of it. Wilson’s been great since reunited with Ovechkin, racking up points (eight in six games) and not taking bad penalties. Still, he is shooting 23.0 percent at all strengths, up 3x from a career average of 8.0 percent, and his teammates are shooting 11.3 percent when they’re on the ice with him. Wilson is definitely doing well — tying his rookie season’s goal total in 76 fewer games — but I’ll resist any characterization that he’s “fixed” the team. Removing Kuznetsov did that.
• And now the player we’ve sorta been talking about all along. Alex Ovechkin leads the team in scoring with 26 points, with only four of them coming from secondary assists. He’s carrying a massive offensive load. His 5-on-5 shooting percentage is up a tad (18.8, up from 13.8 last season), but his shot volume is a bit down.

• Ovechkin’s specialness comes from volume, so when we see a dip like this it might make us worry about his aging curve (like I did a few seasons ago). I suspect we’ll see another classic Ovi comeback soon, with his individual rates ticking up as he spends more time in the offensive zone with Backstrom. Whether that increased volume will come with a tradeoff in scoring is an interesting question — Kuznetsov does seem to have a magic touch at putting the puck in the net.
• Perfectly fitting his reputation, Nicklas Backstrom has had a solid yet under-appreciated season so far. He (and partner TJ Oshie) have put up the best numbers on the team (Backstrom has 52.6 percent of shot attempts, 52.7 of expected goals, 75.6 of actual goals), and they’ve done it despite tough assignments. Below is a Vollman player usage chart, showing where forwards take their zone starts (left means more defensively, right means more offensively), and the quality of their competition (using their opponents’ average expected-goals percentage). The size of the circle means the percentage of 5-on-5 ice time the player gets (bigger means more). Backstrom is in yellow.

• At the cost of activating Ovechkin and Kuznetsov in the offensive zone so much, Oshie and Backstrom have eaten more defensive-zone faceoffs — against similarly tough competition. And while Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have frittered away their optimization, Backstrom and Oshie have excelled despite the tougher role. Here’s a hockeyviz heatmap of Caps offense when Oshie and Backstrom are on the ice together. Take into account that they get this offense despite often starting their shifts far away from the opponent’s net.

• I really liked what I saw from TJ Oshie before he went down with a concussion, at least the fifth in his career. Since last season’s playoffs, Oshie had been playing a heavy, aggressive style that made him defensively dependable, but also nudged up his individual offense numbers.

• I had worried, somewhat loudly, about Oshie’s production abilities as he ages, but this early-season uptick despite tough assignments had been encouraging. Now I just hope he can come back from his concussion in tact. He’s become an important role player for the top six and one of my favorite players to watch.
• Last but not least, Jakub Vrana seems primed for a breakout season. The scratches of least season are behind him, his individual offense rates (14.2 attempts per hour) are behind only Ovechkin, and he’s getting lots of top-six minutes. He seems very likely to hit careers highs in goals and points just in time to negotiate a new deal as a restricted free agent. The only downside may be what that contract will mean for a player we’ll discuss in the bottom-six article.

Next up: The bottom-six forwards

This article would not be possible without Corsica, Hockeyviz, and Natural Stat Trick. Please consider joining RMNB in supporting them via Patreon. All data as of November 19 unless noted otherwise.

Headline photo: Elizabeth Kong