Photo credit: Richard Wolowicz
Coming into this season, I referenced PDO and why it would be responsible for the Caps’ offensive woes this season. The good news is that the pendulum swings the other way too, so while this season has been quite a disappointment — even more so than I thought it might be — I think the final stretch may progress to the mean.
Why? Alex Ovechkin. Randomly pulling shots out of his career, the chances of Alex scoring only 19 goals on 234 shots is 81-to-1, a 1.25% chance. Over his career, Alex Ovechkin in 396 games had 269 goals on 2159 shots for a shooting percentage of 12.5%. If we use the equation for margin of error, we can be 95% sure his real finishing ability is between 11.07% and 13.85%. This season’s shooting percentage of 8.1% falls way outside the 95% confidence level, so I think a stronger finish is possible.
With 31 games left, we project Ovechkin will have 142 shots on goal. If he rebounds to his “real” finishing ability of 11-14%, he could net 15 to 20 goals in the season’s remainder, coming close to ending the year with 40 goals scored.
My money is on 34 goals. What do you think Ovechkin will end the season with?
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