Nic Dowd had the toughest assignments of any player in the NHL.
By the Numbers
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| 12 | goals |
| 10 | assists |
| 64 | games played |
| 15.2 | average ice time |
| On-ice percentages | |
| 41.2 | 5-on-5 shot-attempt percentage |
| 42.1 | 5-on-5 expected goal percentage |
| 47.3 | 5-on-5 actual goal percentage |
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple bobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB shared an open survey with fans, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Peter’s Take
Without a doubt, this was the hardest season of Nic Dowd’s career. The surgery he underwent last summer seemed to hinder him in the opening weeks, then he left the lineup for an injury. When he played, he did almost exclusively in the defensive zone, and before long he left the lineup again in February with another injury. After years of unimpeachable play, Dowd really did struggle for once.
Don’t tell that to the goals that though. Despite everything, the Caps were barely outscored while Dowd was on the ice: 26 to 29, stunning given his deployments, with defensive-zone ones being nearly ten times more common than offensive-zone ones.
We touched on this in the NAK review, but it is my opinion that Dowd had the single toughest assignments of any player in the entire league: miserable deployments plus tutor duty for a developing player in Beck Malenstyn. And relative to a fourth liner, Dowd got a lot of ice time: 15:12, the most in his career. For Spencer Carbery, the fourth line was a crutch. He trusted them with shifts commensurate with a third second line, and he was rewarded for that trust – up until he wasn’t.
The fourth line’s excellent incidental finishing percentages (Caps’ saving and shooting) crashed in mid-March, almost sabotaging the team’s playoff push. Carbery’s overleveraged deployments came back to haunt him.
To me that’s a sign the fourth line was very fortunate for most of last season, and to me that’s a suggestion that Carbery shouldn’t try to do it again. We’ll talk about Malenstyn more next week, but a fairer sharing of defensive-zone starts would be a safer bet next season.
Speaking of: That season will be the last on Dowd’s $1.3 million contract, still a steal at the price. The tragedy of a great fourth liner is they’ll eventually command more than the role justifies. In the meantime, lots of teams want a player you could trust as much as Dowd. I love this player, but I think this will be the final RMNB season review for him.
Player Summary by ChatGPT
In all of recorded history, historians have pondered the meaning of zone starts in hockey. Some leading pundits acclaim the measure’s importance in evaluating a hockey player’s value, while naysayers disagree. Both parties could find common ground in Dowd. The 6’1″ Alabamian is a defensive forward in the National Hockey League (ice hockey), and he’s got the cure for what ails you. If backchecking is the name of the game, then Dowd is the player.
Judy on RMNB
- Dowd had core surgery last summer.
- The season had scarcely begun and Dowd was already in trade rumors.
- Halloween costume: Dodgeball.
- Dowd missed a chunk of the early season with an upper-body injury.
- The fourth line really missed Dowd in that time, as Pat Holden said.
- On his return to play in November: “It’s just nice not to be working away from the fellas. And to get back with the group is emotionally uplifting.”
- Dowd’s first jersey as a kid was John Vanbiesbrouck. I think that guy sucks.
- On why the fourth line worked: “Speed. I’m certainly okay playing underneath and playing defense and being a safety valve. That allows those two to get going, get up ice, cause turnovers on the forecheck, and then I can try to get myself up there and make plays in the O-zone.”
- Come the new year, the trade rumors got out of control. A first-round pick was reportedly possible.
- And then Dowd got hurt.
- And the Caps were in no rush to bring him back before the deadline. They put him in bubble wrap, so to speak. He was not traded, but you know that already.
- Nic and wife Paige sponsor a future service dog. The dog’s name, you guessed it, is Judy.
Your Turn
How much do you think Dowd’s linemates and deployments affected his results?
