NHL teams have been busy the last couple of weeks and that’s not going to change as the trade deadline is just a little over a month away. A few teams, namely the Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets, have already gotten a head start on adding to their playoff-bound rosters.
The Canucks added star center Elias Lindholm, sending winger Andrei Kuzmenko, a first-round pick, a conditional fourth-round pick, and two prospects to the Calgary Flames. The Jets went out and got center Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a first-round pick and a conditional third-round pick.
Those two trades have only further thinned out what was already a considerably scant center market before the deadline. That’s where a team like the Washington Capitals can step in and capitalize, if they so choose.
The Capitals, who seem destined to miss out on the playoffs for a second-straight season, have a center on their roster in Nic Dowd that other teams reportedly covet as the March 8 deadline approaches. With the Lindholm/Monahan moves done, Dowd could now represent the top of the line in terms of “available” centers.
The Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli has been banging the Dowd drum for some time now and followed up on Washington’s pivot in a recent Oilers Now radio segment with Edmonton Oilers color commentator Bob Stauffer. The hockey insider firmly believes the Capitals should be set for a first-round draft pick in return for Dowd’s services.
“This is the market,” Seravalli said. “The seasons change, the players change, and the teams change but what doesn’t really change year-to-year is what the market bears for certain players. Once Lindholm was off the board, it was a very strong likelihood that whoever would step up [to trade for Monahan] would be paying a first-round pick to make sure that they got the guy that they wanted.
“I think [the Capitals] are in the number-one pick range [for Dowd] all day long. Part of that is that teams like the player, part of it too is the cap hit, but the other part is the market is suddenly beginning to get really thin in a hurry at the center position.”
Dowd, 33, is under contract for a pivotal extra year through the 2024-25 campaign which makes him more than a rental and increases his value. His annual cap hit is just $1.3 million which is cheap for a player who is on pace to match his career-high in goals (13) and skates over 15 minutes of time on ice per game. Dowd is even more of an attractive playoff asset due to playing those big minutes almost exclusively in defensive situations against the best players in the league.
In his 38 games this season at five-on-five, Dowd has just 21 offensive zone shift starts compared to a combined 290 defensive zone and neutral zone starts. Despite that, his five-on-five, goals-for percentage (62.1%) ranks second on the team behind just fourth-line linemate Nicolas Aube-Kubel (66.7%). He is also one of the best faceoff men and penalty killers in the entire league.
Dowd’s smaller cap hit appears to be the biggest factor in what appears to be league-wide interest. The last true rental player that some would say ranks higher than Dowd, Adam Henrique of the Anaheim Ducks, makes $5.825 million against the salary cap. Halving his cap hit in a trade would still make him well over two times as expensive of an option as Dowd.
Stauffer believes the Capitals could even be willing to shave off some money on Dowd’s deal and make him even cheaper if teams sweeten any potential trade with an additional later-round draft selection.
“You can make the argument that Adam Henrique is a better player than Nic Dowd but if the Washington Capitals get creative with Dowd, they can get a first-round pick,” Stauffer said. “He’s got two years left. He’s a $1.3 million cap hit. If you decide to give up a fourth-round pick and [the Capitals] eat half the money, suddenly Nic Dowd is $650k for the next two playoff runs.”
Seravalli completely concurred with Stauffer.
“My prediction of what we see over these next 35 days or so until the trade deadline is teams, especially at center, really start to get creative,” he added. “Monahan and Lindholm are off the board and Henrique is kinda expensive cap hit wise for what he is. What you’re going to see is teams go to non-playoff teams, like Washington with Dowd – pay pretty much the same price and get someone who has term on a manageable deal. It may not be the perfect player but it’s better than paying all of that for a rental.”
The Capitals have 14 games in February and the beginning of March before the deadline. They currently sit seventh in the Metropolitan Division with a 22-18-7 record after losing four straight on the road in a stretch that head coach Spencer Carbery had circled as important for the team’s future postseason prospects.
The first few weeks of February should determine whether or not the team makes a move like dealing away Dowd. Four of their next six games come against the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, Vancouver Canucks, and Colorado Avalanche, the current top four teams in the entire league.
