The Caps Are Who We Thought They Were: Week 1 Snapshot

Photo: Amanda Bowen

There was a lot of optimism surrounding the Caps coming into the season. And rightfully so, as GM Brian MacLellan had a great offseason. This is the most well-rounded team the Caps have had in the Ovechkin-era.

The early results are encouraging; the Caps have marched out to a 6-1-0 record. The process has been strong as well, as the team is near the league lead in puck possession. To summon the sentiments of Dennis Green, so far, the Caps are who we thought they were. That is, a very good and possibly elite NHL team.

But it’s important to remember that it has been just seven games. We can’t crown the Caps just yet, because that would be letting them off the hook for the remainder of the season.

A few changes to the snapshot this season:

• Shot attempt numbers will be score-adjusted. This is to accurately account for score effects. A player who plays more when his team is protecting a lead will likely see his raw shot attempts number suffer as a result. Similarly, a player used more when his team needs a goal will likely see his shot attempt numbers inflated. Using score-adjusted numbers levels the playing field.
• Instead of shot attempt percentage (SA%), I will be using relative shot attempts percentage (relSA%). RelSA% tells us how much better or worse a team does in terms of overall shot attempts when a player is on the ice versus on the bench. For example, if Alex Ovechkin has a plus-5.0% relSA%, the Caps see 5% more of the overall shot attempts when he’s on the ice as opposed to when he’s on the bench. The thinking behind using relative shot attempt numbers is this: Player A has a 40 percent SA% and Player B has a 55% SA%. Player B looks like the superior possession player. But Player A plays on a team with a 35% SA% and Player B’s team has a 60% SA%. Using relative numbers would tell us that Player A has a net positive impact on his team’s possession, while Player B’s impact is negative.
• Goals For percentage (GF%) will now be relative goals for percentage (relGF%). The thinking behind this is the same as with relative shot attempts.
• I debated not using zone starts, but I kept them in. Zone starts don’t impact a player’s possession numbers much at all, contrary to what we used to think. What they do tell us is how much a coach trusts a player or what role the player is being deployed in. So, no, Brooks Orpik‘s possession numbers aren’t bad because he has a lot of defensive zone starts, but it’s reasonable to infer that it means the coaching staff trusts him.

Forwards

Defense

Observations

• The Caps top six is really good. Duh. The results (PDO) are outpacing the process (rel SA%) at this point, so expect them to come down to earth a little bit in terms of goals for and against. But this top-six will still be very strong even once they stop getting this much puck luck.
• The Caps fourth line hasn’t gotten much attention because they haven’t scored. But goodness, they’ve been strong in puck possession, as Brooks Laich and Chandler Stephenson have tilted the ice more than any other Caps’ forwards. Their PDO and relative GF% are so unbelievably low that the line is due to pot a goal or two next week.
• Evgeny Kuznetov has been dazzling so far this season. I was fine with the plan of him being a top-six center entering the season, but I was a little guarded in my expectations. He’s in the process of taking another step forward in his development after really showing some good signs of development in the playoffs last spring. I’d still like to see his possession numbers get a little higher, as he barely improves the team’s share of the shot attempts when he’s on the ice. He’s got the skills and linemates to be a star in the league for a long time, so it’d be nice if the possession numbers began to reflect that as well. Interesting side note: Kuznetsov has started a higher percentage of shifts in the defensive zone than any other Caps forward.
• Look, I hate to be the downer here because this team is off to a great start. But there’s always room for improvement. Despite what the score sheets may tell you, the third line isn’t very good. They are hot lately, and pucks are going in for them, so it makes sense to keep them together during this run. But once their puck luck runs out they should be disbanded immediately. They are getting shelled in terms of puck possession and are shooting at a clip that is too high to sustain. The Caps simply will not continue to shoot 14.29 percent when Jason Chimera is on the ice, or 12.9 percent when Jay Beagle and Tom Wilson are on the ice. Caps’ goalies have stopped 96.97 percent of shots with Chimera on the ice and over 97 percent when Beagle and Wilson are on the ice. Do you think this will last? Then shoot me a message because I want some of you what you’re smoking. The possession numbers tell us that the process has been sub-par for these guys while the results have been superb. Regression is coming and this line should be broken up when it does.
• Their numbers are not suffering because they are being used as a “shutdown” line. For one, zone starts and quality of competition are often overstated in terms of how much they impact possession. Second, they haven’t been getting the toughest zone starts (the first line has). And lastly, as you can see below in the y-axis of this chart, even if competition did impact possession, they haven’t been deployed against the toughest competition

• It’s not as if the Caps are without options to upgrade their third line. Once the hot streak for the line ends, and they start giving up more goals than their scoring, the first order of business should be to get Andre Burakovsky on the third line. He’s looked better over the past few games since not looking himself to start the season. Regardless, he’s more talented than any player on the current third line and should be getting those minutes. With how strong Laich’s play has been, I wouldn’t mind seeing him get some time up there either.
• Putting Burakovsky on the third line will also help Tom Wilson. The Caps vowed to get Wilson off the fourth line this season and they did. But those tricksters put Wilson on the third line but brought two fourth line players with him. It’s like if someone promises to pay you back 10 bucks and, when they finally do, they pay you in all pennies. You essentially still don’t have the $10 for any useful purposes.
• As you may have guessed, I’m not happy with the Schmidtuation. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Caps should be scratching the defenseman who has the most positive impact on their possession. But yes, Possession Monster Nate Schmidt has found himself a healthy scratch multiple times already in this young season. It’s not that Tobias(?) Chorney has played badly, he’s just not as good as Schmidt. If the decision comes down to which one of these two to play, the answer is Schmidt. It’s always Schmidt.
• Schmidt is so valuable, in part, thanks to his skating. When the Caps are in their own end, if no other options present themselves, he can skate the puck to safety as he did here.

https://twitter.com/muneebalamcu/status/658273113038262272

• As Ben Lutz pointed out, the Brooks Orpik and John Carlson are not being used as the clear cut, first pair. While Ben says Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen are being used as the “shutdown pair,” I’m going to split hairs and say the Caps are using these two pairs as a 1A and 1B so far this season.
• This is a positive development as Orpik, after a decent start, looked awful on the road trip. He’s slow and his puck skills are sub-par, which is a terrible combination in today’s NHL that continues to more and more favor puck-moving, fleet-footed defensemen. At this point, I still consider Orpik a serviceable defenseman who is on a terrible contract and over-utilized by the coaching staff. But as he’s getting older, he’s going to continue to become a bigger liability to this team.
• Consider for a second how remarkable Carlson is. Since the Caps signed Orpik, the pair have skated 1259 5v5 minutes together and posted a 49.9 percent shot attempt percentage. In their time apart, Carlson (227:19) has posted an other-worldly 58.4 percent shot attempt percentage while Orpik (230:32) slides to 48.5 percent.

Glossary

• GP. Games played.
• TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
• rel SA%. The percentage of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
• rel GF%. The percentage of the overall goals the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
• PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
• ZS%. Offensive zone start percentage. Excluding neutral-zone starts, the share of shifts that the player starts in the offensive zone, nearer to the opponent’s net. Remember, these don’t impact possession much, but are helpful in telling us how much a coach trusts a player.