The Washington Capitals made major changes over the offseason to improve, acquiring Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou, Boone Jenner, and Vincent Desharnais. While on paper the Capitals appear better and many analysts consider the team a Stanley Cup contender, Washington has jumped out to an uneven start, posting a 5-4-0 record through their first nine games and sitting just fifth in the Metropolitan Division.
The Capitals play early, especially defensively, was on the top of the mind for Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery after practice on Friday. When the 2024-25 Jack Adams Award winner was asked about getting Ryan Leonard more ice time, he brought up the state of the team and how it was up to him to fix the team’s problems.
“We’re a lot better offensively (this season),” Carbery said. “Game breakers. Ryan Leonard, playing at a high level. Cole Hutson, Tuchy, Kyrou. All these good, good offensive players. You’ve seen what’s happened, though, to our team five-on-five. We are really good offensively, and we are not good defensively.
“So this is my job, and now when you bring in a lot of high-end, difference-making offensive players, we still, at the end of the day, have to defend. Right now, we are sitting near the bottom of the league in expected goals against 5-on-5. We’re great offensively. Wooo! Everybody loves that. But at the end of the day, to win in this league, you better be a great defensive team.”
Carbery is not wrong. The Capitals’ underlying numbers paint a concerning picture defensively. According to Natural Stat Trick, Washington is generating 3.25 expected goals per game across all situations, ranking 13th in the NHL. However, the Capitals are also surrendering 3.90 expected goals per game, the third-worst mark in the league. Their overall expected goals percentage of 45.48 ranks 27th out of 32 teams.
The numbers improve slightly at five-on-five, where Washington ranks 12th in expected goals generated per game (2.21) but 27th in expected goals allowed (2.43). Despite outscoring opponents 30-29 over nine games, the Capitals have given up far more quality scoring chances than they’ve generated, suggesting their early defensive struggles extend beyond the scoreboard.
Capitals Expected Goals Per Game (2026–27)
| Statistic | Per Game / Share | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Goals For (All Situations) | 3.25 | 13th |
| Expected Goals Against (All Situations) | 3.90 | 30th |
| Expected Goals % (All Situations) | 45.48% | 27th |
| Expected Goals For (5v5) | 2.21 | 12th |
| Expected Goals Against (5v5) | 2.43 | 27th |
| Expected Goals % (5v5) | 47.67% | 20th |
Source: Natural Stat Trick.
“A lot of what we’re doing poorly defensively is actually at the offensive end, which is crazy to think,” Carbery added. “I’ll bring you back to the last game that we just played against Los Angeles — Adrian Kempe’s goal. We have the puck. We’re attacking their net, and the next thing you know, it’s in the back of our net. We just had a chance at their end. And because we lose structure, because we have four guys that are – now we give up breakaway. It’s the same thing in the goal at the end of the period.
“Cole’s shot gets blocked there. It’s a game of numbers — when a D jumps up, a forward has to cover. If we don’t have a forward covering and now they get the puck, it’s an odd-man rush.
“We’re a really good offensive team, and I appreciate that, and I love that,” he continued. “A lot of things that we did against Los Angeles the other night were really, really good. But you have to be willing to defend at a high level in this league if you are going to be one of the good teams in this league. That’s a fact. So we have to get better in that area.”
The biggest changes the Capitals’ backend has seen year-over-year include longtime defenseman and former alternate captain John Carlson moving on to the Tampa Bay Lightning after a trade to the Anaheim Ducks and rookie sensation Cole Hutson playing his first full season in the NHL. The team also added Vincent Desharnais to add a physical, penalty-killing element, as Trevor van Riemsdyk signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Now, with Desharnais out for the next four to six weeks due to appendectomy surgery, Carbery’s job of improving the team defensively will be even more difficult as the team gives heavy minutes to Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy and an every-night roster spot to Dylan McIlrath or a Hershey call-up like Justin Holl.
