Congratulations on making it to Sunday, the end of one of the most exciting weeks in recent Washington Capitals history. I can think of only one week in June that has ever come close.
In the span of a few short days, general manager Chris Patrick and company have stunned the league with a series of deals that has dramatically improved the team’s short-term outlook. Finally emerging from my stunlock, I am ready to talk about it.
Jordan Kyrou
In exchange for Connor McMichael, well-liked prospect Milton Gastrin, and their 16th overall 2026 pick, the Capitals acquired Jordan Kyrou – a fast, two-way forward coming out of a suboptimal situation in St. Louis. In recent years, the Capitals have been savvy on that last part, exploiting market inefficiencies to nab players like Jakob Chychrun, Logan Thompson, and Dylan Strome.
Kyrou is what they call an analytics darling, generally meaning a player for whom on-ice goals don’t line up with expected goals. Kyrou’s most common linemates last season were Pavel Buchnevich and Jake Neighbours, both considered sub-replacement level according to HockeyViz, and who both saw their on-ice shot-attempt percentage drop ten points when they weren’t lucky enough to share the ice with Kyrou. Kyrou will have much better partners next season – and more ice time to boot.
Having heard head coach Spencer Carbery talk around the topic for years, Kyrou seems like the exact kind of player he’s wanted – who will allow him to diversify his offense types, doing more of the rushes and counterattacks that have worked so well in limited spans during his administration. And, as I’ll get to in more detail, insofar as Kyrou is a replacement for McMichael, he’s a major upgrade, particularly on defense.
I don’t know who the Caps might have selected 16th overall. I bet he’s a very nice young man with a bright future. But with Kyrou, the future is now. Or October, at least. He improves the Capitals immediately, which is critical for the surprise twist ending to this article.
Alex Tuch
I thought the Caps were done after the Kyrou thing. I turned off notifications for NHL rumors on my phone. I couldn’t be bothered to hear what the Buffalo Sabres were up to. This was my error.
The Capitals acquired Alex Tuch in a sign-and-trade with the Sabres in exchange for a 2027 third-round pick and the rights to pending UFA David Kampf.
If you think of Alex Tuch as the The Save guy, you’re missing out. In the intervening years, Tuch has climbed to top-line minutes, playing with Peyton Krebs and Tage Thompson during Buffalo’s playoff campaign. He just turned 30 but is still fast and coming off one of his best offensive seasons thanks to both high volume and excellent finishing.
Tuch was near the tops of the league in secondary assists, which can be a red flag – one I waved for McMichael. But I bet most people’s worries for Tuch are his contract. Tuch will earn $10.5 million dollars over eight years. That’s a lot of money over a lot of time, but we should think of those millions in proportion to the salary cap, which is going to the moon.
In the year the Caps won the Cup, it would have been worth $8M – about what Kuznetsov earned in that hardball deal. (J.P. also discussed this on his newsletter, but I swear I was ranting about it on the Discord before I read it.)
The eight years is the more daunting figure, but it shouldn’t be. I’m going to use the term time horizon. Our that thing for the Caps is way less than eight years. The team – and again, this is a spoiler for the conclusion to this whole article – is focused on October, not 2034. When Tuch’s contract is up, during Kash Patel’s second term, when I’m fucking 50, and when we’re all eating lanternflies to get protein, we are not going to care about this contract anymore. I promise. If I’m wrong, you can DM me on my government-mandated Neuralink interface.
The Departed (overrated Scorsese movie IMO btw)
I’m sorry to invoke a cliché that deserves a place on my Annoying List, but the Capitals did some addition by subtraction this week.
Connor McMichael
McMichael had a crummy time under Peter Laviolette, but eventually by 2024-25 he broke through. In the graph below, using Evolving Hockey reckoning for the catch-all stat Goals Above Replacement (up is good, down is bad, zero is like a Hershey call-up), I’ve included a hint why:
Pierre-Luc Dubois carried McMichael through that exciting breakthrough season, but with PLD injured for much of 2025-26 McMichael was exposed. His defense remained poor and without offense – excepting those tricky secondary assists – to offset it. Spencer Carbery tried him up and down the lineup, at center and on the wings, and he reached the same conclusion we all did: CMcM is a passenger. He’s got virtues, but he can’t produce unless he’s got a high-value player setting him up.
The Kyrou deal wasn’t a player-for-player trade – and even if it were, McMichael being on an expiring RFA deal and due a major pay raise would complicate things. But if we were to just consider these two players on ice next season, which we should, because that will be the big flourish at the end of this article you’re reading, then it’s night and day.
Look at this graph. From Evolving Hockey again, it compares McMichael (left) to Kyrou (right) in various categories of their impacts: team goals, expected goals, offensive attempts – and then two defensive categories: opponent expected goals and attempts.
Except for actual goals, Kyrou trounces McMichael. On defense, the mere removal of McMichael will improve the Caps. Even if the Caps didn’t get Kyrou for him, I think the Caps would have been wise to not even tender an offer to McMichael this summer. Instead, they got an excellent, all-around player. I love it.
Hendrix Lapierre
The inverse of McMichael in a lot of ways, Lapierre is a legit defensive forward, but he hasn’t been able to do much else. Four goals and twelve assists in 74 games somehow feels like a good outing considering his toolset. Going 90 games between goals is fine if you’re a stay-at-home defender with a muffin for a shot, but the expectations for Lapierre were higher.
His lack of scoring had externalities. Even on the nights when Lapierre was playing in the middle six, Spencer Carbery declined to play his line more than ten minutes a night. That put extra stress on the other three lines, and it was one of the pestering frustrations for some of us at RMNB all season.
Removing Lapierre, among others, should allow Carbery to balance his lines better. They may not all be able to play the same way – and that may be a struggle – but he won’t have to hide one trio every single night. I’ll be grateful for that alone.
David Kampf and Declan Chisholm
Kampf played 18 minutes for the Capitals in two games. I don’t even know what he looks like. I forgot his jersey number.
Declan Chisholm may yet be fine or even good. I hope he’ll get a chance with the Devils, but my heart does not weep.
Free agency is days away, and the Caps aren’t done. They’ve been linked to Boone Jenner, which is more interesting than I thought at first glance. They’ll need more players at the margins, and they’ll need to shore up the defense with Rasmus Sandin out, but it feels like their big moves have already been made.
Save one.
Alex Ovechkin
If I were a 40-something silver fox (wait, hold on a sec, I am this) unemployed millionaire hockey legend currently probably on a yacht somewhere in the Mediterranean (alas, I no longer am this), I’d have been watching the Capitals’ week with interest.
I’m not saying Chris Patrick’s moves were part of an enticement scheme to get Alex Ovechkin to re-sign. These moves help whether Ovi comes back or not, but they sure sweeten the offer.
This is what Match TV said last week: “The stronger the team, the better for Ovechkin,” and “money is a secondary concern for him.”
Well, the team is much, much, much stronger than it was one week ago. Here are the catch-all stats for the involved players from Evolving Hockey (GAR) and HockeyViz (Synthetic Goals). Evolving Hockey’s numbers are single-season; HockeyViz weighs previous seasons too.
| Player | Evolving | HockeyViz |
|---|---|---|
| Kyrou | +11.5 | +11.3 |
| Tuch | +12.3 | -0.9 |
| Lapierre | +2.9 | -1.1 |
| Kampf | -0.4 | -2.8 |
| McMichael | -0.9 | -4.7 |
| Chisholm | -0.9 | 0.0 |
(I notice that Tuch’s got a negative rating on HockeyViz. Worth thinking about.)
I suspect we’re going to hear about Ovechkin’s decision soon. I won’t make a prediction about dollars or term (but I wonder if we’re underestimating the chance of a two-year deal), but I will hazard this guess: it’s an easier choice now than it was in April. The Washington Capitals were an unimpressive team in 2025-26 who missed the playoffs, some might say, on a statistical fluke. Now, with weakness purged, with speed and skill injected, with young players blossoming, and stars still in stride, they’re the most improved team in the NHL so far this summer.
I can’t wait ’til fall.
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