The Washington Capitals, losers of four of their last five, fell to the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1 on Wednesday.
The Flyers’ regulation victory tied the two teams at 71 standings points, sending the Capitals, due to tiebreakers, into sixth place in the Metropolitan Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Flyers still hold two games in hand on the Caps.
With 15 games remaining in the 2025-26 season, the Capitals sit eight points behind the New York Islanders for third place in the division and seven points behind the Boston Bruins for the second wild card spot — their only two avenues to the postseason.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it and sit here and say that, ‘you know, if you lose a game like this…’ like, obviously, we’re running out of runway here,” Carbery said.
After returning from the Olympic break, Carbery said told the media he believed that the team would need to win 16 of their final 23 games to make the postseason. The Capitals have lost four of their first seven games out of their 19-day vacation, meaning they will have to win 13 of their next 16 to hit Carbery’s 97 standings points prediction to extend their season.
The loss to the Flyers, per Moneypuck, was especially crippling to their playoff chances, seeing the Capitals’ odds drop from 11 percent to 6.3% after the final horn blew. The Flyers now sit at 4.5%.
Despite his team’s dire outlook, Carbery doesn’t think that will impact the club’s preparation and competitiveness as they complete their back-to-back against the Sabres on Thursday night.
“To say that it’s going to… we’re going to break [our playoff chances] down tomorrow and see how many games, how many… it’s just not going to happen,” Carbery said. “We’re going to show up in Buffalo. And we’re going to play. Play our butts off, and we’re gonna try to win a hockey game.”
While the Capitals’ playoff chances have nearly evaporated, their odds for a better draft position are improving by the day, according to Tankathon.
Currently, the Capitals are lottery-bound as the 13th-worst team in the NHL, and if things stay the same, they could move up as high as 10 spots to the third overall pick depending on Lady Luck. If the Capitals can “catch” and “overtake” the Panthers for eleventh worst in the league (the Panthers have 67 points with two games in hand), Washington would enter the lottery for the first overall pick.
