Tom Wilson: 2024-25 season review

Wilson character screen

Tom Wilson is the heart and soul of the Washington Capitals, said everyone, over and over, correctly.


By the Numbers

33

Goals

36

Assists

81

Games played

19

Minutes per game
On-ice percentages

51%

Shot attempts

53%

Expected goals

56%

Actual goals

Isolated Impact by HockeyViz

HockeyViz player isolate

About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple blobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.

Player Card by All Three Zones

All Three Zones

About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.

Player Card by Evolving Hockey

Evolving Hockey card

About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone. 

Player Overview by NHL Edge

NHL Edge

About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.

Fan Happiness Survey

RMNB Happiness Survey

About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB conducted an open survey with readers, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.


Slavoj Žižek on Wilson

I think that the purpose of Wilson is not to provide hits, sniff, but to show how the way we conceive of hits is itself the problem.


Peter’s Take

I mentioned this in the PLD review, but I’ve got to say it again: Tom Wilson was the most improved player in the NHL in 2024-25, according to Goals Above Replacement. Actually, he had the biggest year-to-year improvement in that stat of any player in the last three seasons. Just a couple years after having question marks over his career, Wilson is a bona fide all-star. Or at least he would have been if there were an all-star game. There was a 4 Nations Face-off, though, and he was a notorious Team Canada snub at the 4 Nations Face-off, so maybe they know something I don’t.

If there is something to take away from Wilson, it’s that his success this season mostly came in his time with Dubois.

Wilson TOI Attempt% xG% Goal%
With PLD 651 51.8 54.7 59.2
Without PLD 496 48.2 50.3 51.4

But that doesn’t bother me too much. Wilson’s time away from PLD was usually time with Ovechkin — where the underlying numbers are never quite as strong for the reasons I agonized over last week. Everyone does great with Dubois, but that doesn’t mean Wilson must be a passenger. He’s not. And he has improved his game in every way I can think of.

He’s hitting less than ever (and hitting better than ever), and he’s shooting more than he hits.

For the first time in his career, Tom Wilson shoots more than he hits

Peter Hassett (@peterhassett.net) 2025-02-09T14:52:41.328Z

At age 31, he’s still quick. Any concerns you (read: me) might have had about his ACL injury should be fully gone by now. His on-ice attempt rate has never been higher; opponent expected-goal rates against him are at a five-year low. He’s always involved deep in the Caps zone, and he’s always a threat in the opponent’s crease. A genuine 200-foot player.

Two years ago, some joker wrote an article on RMNB imagining a Nylander-Wilson trade. No way the Leafs would make that trade, Toronto declaimed. Today, the Caps wouldn’t make that trade. No way.

I’ve been resisting saying this for years, but eff it, I’m saying it: Future Captain.


Tommy on RMNB

Tom Wilson now full-time alternate captain for Capitals, Dylan Strome part of leadership group

Tom Wilson records first career Gordie Howe Hat Trick against Montreal Canadiens at age 30: ‘Fun to get that one under the belt’

Tom Wilson: elite

Tom Wilson says he gives opposing players a verbal heads up before delivering big bodychecks: ‘It keeps those messy hits out of the game’

Tom Wilson named Capitals’ nominee for 2025 King Clancy Trophy

Tom Wilson steals Sebastian Aho’s mouthguard after whistle

  • Duhaime on Wilson: “He does it all. We’ve been praising him all year. I think his head’s getting a little big, but yeah. He’s the heart of the team. He drives the bus every night for us. He’s physical. He dominates pucks and he scores big goals, makes big plays for us.”
  • Banned in NC.
  • Maybe don’t mock the storm surge next time.

Your Turn

How long until he gets the C?

So ends the Season Review series. Now I will tell you what the attributes mean:

  • Strength: individual scoring
  • Intelligence: passing and playmaking
  • Speed: skating speed (sorry, goalies)
  • Endurance: games played
  • Personality:  penalties
  • Luck: Peter’s choice

No one is unintelligent on the Caps — at least not in the hockey sense. I hope you didn’t take these scores seriously. Last year there was a dysentery score.

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