This was the season we knew Connor McMichael was capable of.
By the Numbers
26
Goals
31
Assists
82
Games played
17
Minutes per game
On-ice percentages
50%
Shot attempts
53%
Expected goals
58%
Actual goals
Isolated Impact by HockeyViz
About this visualization: This image by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team’s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team’s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red/orange blobs near the opponent’s net at top, and blue/purple blobs near their own team’s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player’s impact.
Player Card by All Three Zones
About this player card: This image from Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones shows how the player compares to league averages in different microstats in the defensive, neutral, and offensive zones. Blue bars mean the player has a higher rate in that statistic compared to league average, and orange means a lower rate. The numbers are Z-scores, also known as standard deviations, indicating how far the number is from league average, where more than two standard deviations means the player is on the extreme edge of the league.
Player Card by Evolving Hockey
About this player card: This card from Josh and Luke of Evolving Hockey compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means “goals above replacement,” where “replacement” means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player’s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.
Player Overview by NHL Edge
About this visualization: The NHL’s advanced statistics program, Edge, tracks player and puck movement. At left are the player’s numbers in various statistics along with the average number for that same stat among players of the same position and the player’s percentile rank in it. At right is a radar chart for various statistics, where the bigger the shape the better the player performs in those measures.
Fan Happiness Survey
About this visualization: At three times during the season, RMNB conducted an open survey with readers, asking the following question for each player: “On a scale from 1 to 5, how HAPPY are you to have this player on the team?” The numbers above show the average score for the player in each survey period.
Slavoj Žižek on McMichael
McMichael is a failure of a capitalist commodity. A speculative asset without a market crash? The dialectic resolved in the back of the net.
Peter’s Take
I had a feeling he could do this. After years of setbacks, Connor McMichael finally became a star in 2024-25. He scored more, shot more, got more rebounds, got more assists, drove play better, finished stronger, played on the power-play, and played on the penalty kill. For twenty games, he looked like an all-star. Didn’t last forever though.
McMichael had a point per game in his first twenty games, then lost 40 percent of that for the remainder of the season — the same ratio he had in the postseason: four goals and two assists in ten games. He still finished 28th among 350 full-time NHL forwards in all-situation point rate, an improvement of more than 50 percentile ranks from the prior season. It was a very good season, just not better-switch-to-suspenders-lest-your-pants-get-blown-off levels.
Validating every early–days McMichael believer, the ways in which he was good are like the promises of his 2021-22 season fulfilled. He went to the net a lot — 4.8 high-danger chances per hour (though that number can also include dangerous rushes), more than any full-time Caps forward. He shot at a higher rate than any full-time Caps forward who will not have multiple statues carved for him. He’s fast, good on the rush and the cycle, a creator and getter of second chances. There’s so much to like about this player, and one thing not to like.
Is he a center or a wing? He played the first half of the year as the latter before jumping to the former. I don’t think the jump caused or coincided with his drop in scoring; it might have actually improved his scoring a bit.
“I think I want to be a center for sure,” McMichael said on breakdown day. “I think that’s where I’m most comfortable. For me, it’s just wherever Carbs (Spencer Carbery) wants me to play, I’m fine with it… I for sure do want to play center, but I think I’m really comfortable at the wing as well.”
If he’s playing center, maybe he’ll be the team’s solution to the mystery of 3C. That might provide the tertiary scoring the Caps missed late in the year, especially on the counterattack offense that McMichael is so good at it. But also maybe that role will stifle his productivity — and therefore his specialness. I don’t know what will happen. That’s why the play the games. But if I were him, entering my final season on a $2.1 million contract, I’d sure want to put up some goals and assists in a top-six role.
CMCM on RMNB
- McMichael signed a two-year extension worth $2.1M per year. A bargain considering what happened next.
- Carbery on the too-many-centers problem: “Mikey’s played, started last year on the wing. I thought [he] can easily, seamlessly go there. . . He’s done a really good job on the walls and working at winger-specific stuff.”
- We learned the Caps and Jets had briefly considered a trade involving McMichael.
- McMichael started the season strong. He had a two-goal game against Philly.
- In October, he and Lene Andersen welcomed their first child.
- The last two bullets were related. “I would say it’s the best 12 hours of my life.” Mine was beating Malenia, Blade of Miquella.
- The two — equally good — Connor Mc’s. Best bit. Trolliest bit.
- Another huge game against the Rags.
- I identified McMichael as one of the many Caps players who made a major leap this season.
- CHIN GOAL!
- McMichael was the (spurious) reason why one of John Carlson’s goals was disallowed.
- He got the GWG against the Leafs in his hometown.
- In January, McMichael was moved to center for the first time.
- Carbery on McMichael cooling off after the new year: ” I’m looking for him to really kick it back into overdrive and try to replicate what he did at the start of the season in these final 27 games.”
- Coach again, on when McMichael is at his most effective: “When you’re not skating and you don’t have any speed and you try to beat people in this league, you’re dead in the water. So now I feel like he’s back to really playing at a high, high tempo. And so when he gets the puck and when he’s attacking the defenseman, he’s got him on his heels, and now he’s able to win those one-on-one situations through the neutral zone, off the rush.”
- Jalen Chatfield almost seriously injured him. No supplemental discipline.
- Carbery didn’t like it.
- Duhaime really really didn’t like it.
Your Turn
Keep it simple: center or wing? And why?
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