The Washington Capitals did a lot to change their fortunes since last season. Maybe the biggest of those changes was Jakob Chychrun, acquired in a trade with Ottawa in July. The Caps’ interest in that player had been reported for more than a year at that point, and now we know understand why they were so fixated.
Chychrun certainly has his off-nights – he was on the ice for 22 Carolina shot attempts and just two Caps attempts the other night – but when he’s on, he’s contributing. Using All Three Zones microevent tracking, we know that Chychrun is the team’s best blueliner at carrying the puck out of the defensive zone.
And second only to Rasmus Sandin, the best in the whole league, at carrying the puck into the offensive zone.
But what’s been jumping out to me and everyone else is what Chychrun’s been doing once he’s in the offensive zone. Specifically, Chychrun is freakishly productive from just beneath the blue line, where he takes shots and makes passes (and often a combination of both) way above what’s common for his position.
Below, from HockeyViz, are two visualizations. At left you see the locations of Chychrun’s individual offense during five-on-five play. At right you see the Caps as a whole when he’s on the ice, with red indicating a spot where the Caps are shooting more than league average.
In both cases, there’s a heavy concentration at bottom left – or, from the ice’s perspective, just above the faceoff dot. That’s the Chychrun Spot, so to speak, and it’s been prolific for him.
On October 19 in New Jersey, Chychrun sent a shot-pass from there into traffic, where McMichael finished it off after a touch by Wilson. A diagram from NHL.com:
On November 25 in Florida, Chychrun gained the zone, drew three players towards him, and seamed a pass to Lars Eller across the ice for a goal. Again, from NHL.com:
Two days later on November 27, Chychrun assumed his spot during a power play, waited for a narrow opening, and then sent the puck onto Wilson’s stick. From NHL.com:
The majority of Chychrun’s points have come like this: on or near that spot, which is not by itself considered very dangerous. Without considering other factors, attempts from that spot on the ice on average become goals two percent of the time (precisely 0.02154373 according to Evolving Hockey in the case of Chychrun’s November 17 goal against Vegas). But because of Chychrun’s selection, awareness, and heavy shot (86th percentile in average shot speed), he’s been able to outperform expected goal models so far. The Caps have scored 26 five-on-five goals while he’s on the ice – seven more than the 19 expected. (Twelve percent on-ice shooting hasn’t hurt either.)
Chychrun is earning $4.6 million this season, his age-26 year. That contract expires this summer, and he’ll certainly earn a pay raise on the next one. I can’t see why it shouldn’t be with Washington, and I can’t see why it shouldn’t come as soon as possible.
Goals visualizations from NHL.com. This story would not be possible without Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, Evolving Hockey, and Hockey Viz. Please consider joining us in supporting them.
