The Eastern Conference’s second wild card — the eighth and final playoff spot — could be decided as early as Tuesday night. Four different teams are competing for the position — the Washington Capitals, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Philadelphia Flyers — after three of the four earned huge victories on Monday night.
The Capitals ultimately control their own destiny heading into their final game of the season. With a win of any type over the Flyers at Wells Fargo Center Tuesday night, the Caps will the clinch the second wild card and have a date with the New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs.
But, anything less, sends the spot into chaos and gives the three other teams an opportunity to get in.
The two other games that could determine the spot include Tuesday night’s Red Wings vs. Montreal Canadiens matchup at Bell Centre and Wednesday’s showdown between the Penguins and Islanders at UBS Arena.
Capitals scenarios to get in
A win
No matter if they win in regulation, overtime, or the shootout, the Capitals (91 points) are in the playoffs with a victory of any type against the Flyers.
If the Red Wings win and tie the Capitals at 91 points, Washington has already clinched the regulation wins tiebreaker over them, holding an advantage 31 to 27.
Overtime/shootout loss requires help
If the Capitals lose to the Flyers in overtime or a shootout and finish with 90 points, they can still get into the playoffs but would need the Red Wings and Penguins to lose in any form. The Capitals would hold the regulation wins tiebreaker over Detroit (31 to 27), and would have more points than Pittsburgh.
How the Capitals are eliminated
If they lose in overtime/shootout and Detroit wins
Due to being tied with the Red Wings at 89 standings points, the Capitals must avoid any scenario where Detroit earns more points than them. An overtime loss would not be enough if Detroit wins their game.
Tie Pittsburgh with 90 standings points
An overtime/shootout loss and a Penguins win would see the two teams tie at 90 points and Pittsburgh holds the regulation wins tiebreaker (32 to 31).
Washington, Detroit, and Pittsburgh all lose in regulation
Even if all three teams lose in regulation, the Capitals will not make the playoffs. This is due to the Flyers beating Washington and holding the advantage over Washington in goal differential (-25 to -38), the sixth tiebreaker for playoff qualification.
This scenario may lead to Philadelphia pulling their goalie against Washington even if the game is tied as they need a regulation win to have any chance of making the postseason.
Playoff Odds
Heading into tonight’s game, the Capitals have the best odds to make the postseason, but just a smidge over the Red Wings.
Odds as of Tuesday via Money Puck
Capitals, 42.8 percent
Red Wings, 36.8 percent
Penguins, 14.6 percent
Flyers, 5.9 percent
With their win on Monday, the Capitals were the biggest risers as they moved up over 13 percentage points. Detroit also improved their chances by three percent after their comeback victory against the Montreal Canadiens. Even though they also found a win on Monday, Pittsburgh’s chances plummeted over nine percent due to both Washington and Detroit also winning. The Flyers saw their odds slashed over 12 percent.
For the Capitals though, it remains simple: win and you’re in. Play your absolute best and that will take care of the rest.
For us fans, this is as big of a game possible in the regular season. Have a stress ball and your tummy medicine nearby.
Biggest a regular season game can get https://t.co/EcOiPNpzZn pic.twitter.com/Cj2FEF8rii
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) April 16, 2024
