The NHL is weeks away from its March 8 trade deadline. Despite stronger, more consistent play recently, the Washington Capitals should be sellers as they continue to re-tool for the future.
The Capitals could look to deal some of their upcoming unrestricted free agents like Max Pacioretty, Joel Edmundson, and Anthony Mantha. Nic Dowd has also gotten a lot of attention from hockey insiders as he is a highly effective shutdown center with a cheap cap hit.
But if general manager Brian MacLellan is shrewd, he’ll also aggressively look to trade one of the team’s NHL goaltenders: Charlie Lindgren or Darcy Kuemper.
Here’s why.
The Capitals are going nowhere this season
The Capitals have lost eight of their last 10 games and are now nine points out of a divisional playoff spot and eight points out of the final wild card playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. By points percentage, they have three teams ahead of them vying for that wild card position and are ranked as the 13th-worst team in the 32-team NHL.
From an overall process perspective, this season has been grim although things have been better recently. At five-on-five, the Capitals have seen just 46 percent of the shot attempts, 45.6 percent of the expected goals, 46.8 percent of the scoring chances, and 47.1 percent of the high-danger chances. Those aren’t the numbers of a middle-of-the-road team let alone a playoff team. Those are lottery pick for a second season in a row type numbers.
Projected 2023-24 NHL standings and playoff chances as of February 14 💗
Updated daily at @TheAthleticNHL https://t.co/AxsQbs6nXo pic.twitter.com/fY0yVlc9QU— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) February 14, 2024
While one eye will likely stay focused on Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, the Capitals are in need of asset recouping and on-the-fly “retooling” (since no one ever likes using the other R word). Having two 30-plus-year-old goaltenders on the roster is not a luxury a team needs when they have no realistic playoff or Stanley Cup aspirations.
The market for goaltenders is shallow and there are buyers
Dealing Lindgren or Kuemper would be especially smart due to several top teams needing help in net. The Buffalo Sabres, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils, and Philadelphia Flyers among others have all reportedly shown interest in dealing for a goaltender.
The Calgary Flames’ Jacob Markstrom is the top target for any team looking for a number-one goaltender before their playoff run. Calgary reportedly had a deal for Markstrom to go to the New Jersey Devils but the trade fell through and is not expected to be revisited. Now, the situation sounds more like the Flames will wait until the offseason to move the big Swede although there continue to be rumblings about him.
If Markstrom is indeed off the board, there’s a question on who is the next best, “available” option. While names like Jake Allen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Elvis Merzlikins, and Kaapo Kahkonen have been thrown around, none of those players have the numbers to match up with the Capitals’ top option.
Charlie Lindgren’s value will never be higher
Outside of Markstrom, Charlie Lindgren would be the best goaltender statistically this season on the market if the Capitals chose to put him up for sale. In 23 starts this season, Lindgren has amassed a 10-8-4 record with a 2.65 goals-against average, a .913 save percentage, and three shutouts. None of the “other names” listed above outrank Lindgren in GAA, save percentage, or total shutouts.
Additionally, Lindgren’s “goals saved above expected” has regularly been in the top 10 of netminders in the entire league this year. According to MoneyPuck, after a string of rough starts on the road at the end of January, Lindgren has dropped to 14th in the league at 8.2 goals saved above expected but could easily shoot back up within the top 10 after a couple of good outings.
His recent rough run of starts is another reason why the Capitals should pounce on the opportunity to get value out of Lindgren now. There is a distinct chance that his numbers from his early season hot streak will fade, including due to team effort dying down as the playoffs get further out of grasp or other veterans getting dealt at the deadline which could weaken the roster.
Lindgren also easily carries the best contract of any of the potentially available netminding names. He is making just $1.1 million on the cap for this season and next season, making him affordable for any team in the league in any situation. Lindgren was originally signed to be Darcy Kuemper’s cheap backup and has vastly outplayed those expectations. If the Capitals can bank assets in return for Lindgren, they’ll still have Kuemper to hold down the fort for the foreseeable future and be able to use the value in return for Lindgren to help the team moving forward.
Moving on from Darcy Kuemper could reap long-term benefits
Since winning a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche, Darcy Kuemper has for the most part struggled in Washington with its porous defense and scuffling offense. This season, Kuemper outright lost his starting job to Lindgren, as he’s posted an 11-12-3 record with a 3.16 goals-against average and .894 save percentage. Big in net, Kuemper relies on solid positioning and pucks just hitting him instead of having to sprawl out or make flashy glove saves.
What could make Kuemper valuable to other teams is his Stanley Cup experience as a postseason starter. Kuemper started 16 games for the Avalanche on the way to their Cup victory in 2022 and has an additional 18 games of playoff experience with the Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes.
The only true comparable on the market would be Marc-Andre Fleury but he is having a rougher season than Kuempr (-3.1 goals saved above expected) and hasn’t even determined whether or not he wants to be traded yet.
While Kuemper’s numbers are concerning, there is reason to believe he would do well with a playoff team with a more predictable team defense. Kuemper’s never finished a season in his career with a save percentage under .900, and his only season with a GAA above three came in just 17 starts with the Wild during the 2016-17 campaign. He has also been playing decidedly better for the Capitals in recent games, raising his goals saved above expected out of the negatives (1.2) and posting his first shutout of the season in late January.
For the Capitals, dealing Kuemper would establish Lindgren as the true number-one starter in DC and free up the Capitals’ depth chart for some younger goaltenders in their system that have hit a glass ceiling in the minors. Kuemper, 33, could also be experiencing age regression and has a cap hit of $5.25 million for the next three seasons after this one. Aggressively freeing themselves from that commitment could give them more money to address problems via free agency or trade.
There would still be big challenges to any potential Kuemper trade. He does have a 15-team, no-trade list in his contract, and in any move, the Capitals would likely need to eat some of his large yearly salary for the rest of his deal. Eating some of that salary in return for draft capital could be worth it but teams don’t love doing that for multiple seasons. But, the time is now to start turning to their developing names.
Hunter Shepard, Clay Stevenson, and Mitch Gibson
One of the strongest arguments for dealing one of the two NHL goalies comes from the Capitals’ minor-league system where arguably none of the goalies are slotting correctly anymore.
The team has goaltenders down with the Hershey Bears and South Carolina Stingrays that are much older than regular drafted prospects due to them all being former college players. In part due to the lack of upward mobility in the organization, they’re stuck in roles that may not be challenging enough. The best example is Hershey’s Clay Stevenson, who is slated to be the team’s backup in the Calder Cup playoffs as of now.
Stevenson, who turns 25 in a few weeks, is amid his rookie season in the AHL after signing with the Capitals out of Dartmouth College in 2022. The big netminder has arguably been the league’s best goalie this season as he has posted a 17-7-1 record with a 1.93 goals-against average, a .930 save percentage, and six shutouts in front of a dominant Bears team. While he has been an emergency backup with the Capitals, he has yet to make his NHL debut despite such sparkling performances.
#Flames Dustin Wolf is going for the AHL GotY three-peat with the only goalie in his way being #ALLCAPS Clay Stevenson. The consistency of Wolf has been incredible especially with a new head coach in charge of the Wranglers. Silly he's still down there. pic.twitter.com/nlduFMntJj
— Giants in the Crease (@CreaseGiants) January 23, 2024
Stevenson’s battery mate, 28-year-old Hunter Shepard, has won 20 of his 23 games this season after being awarded the AHL’s Playoff MVP award during the Bears’ Calder Cup run in 2023. Shepard, who will likely take the reins as starter in this year’s playoffs again, has made four appearances for the Capitals this season, winning two of them and at times looking like he belonged.
Then there’s 24-year-old Mitch Gibson with the Stingrays in the ECHL. Gibson has been South Carolina’s primary starter, winning 15 games and posting a 2.35 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage. He has already shown AHL-ready ability as well, making two spot starts for the Bears this season and winning both of them with a combined 1.92 goals-against average.
In addition to those players, the Capitals also have draft picks Garin Bjorklund, Chase Clark, and Antoine Keller waiting in the wings.
If the Capitals were to deal either Lindgren or Kuemper, the organization could see what they truly have in Hunter Shepard at the NHL level this season while also allowing Clay Stevenson to start for the Bears in the 2024 Calder Cup playoffs. There are rumblings in the organization that Stevenson could be the goaltender of the future.
The Capitals are known for overcooking their prospects but they have been less strict when it comes to their prospect goaltenders. Semyon Varlamov got his first NHL start at 20, Braden Holtby got his first at 21, and Ilya Samsonov got his first at 22.
To put the situation simply, you likely won’t find the next Holtby if you’re giving your goaltending prospects their first crack at the NHL past the age of 25.
And the best parts of this scenario? The Capitals would still have either Lindgren or Kuemper to help guide the younger goalie into the future. They also will have a lot of cap space available to sign a veteran out of free agency if need be.
Now that you’ve heard my thoughts, what would you do if you were in Brian MacLellan’s shoes? Let us know in the comments.
