The Washington Capitals’ Friday night home game against the Florida Panthers could be their last. Down 3-2 in the series, they’ll face elimination.

Where is the horse and the rider? Where is the horn that was blowing? They have passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow. The days have gone down in the West behind the hills into shadow. How did it come to this?

That’s from a poem recited by Theoden before his army got dunked on at the Hornburg. Now, much like the King of Rohan, I too ask how we got in this dire situation. And I’ll do so by doing the only thing I’m good at: making a list.

Here is a list of the Washington Capitals, ranked by their performances in the playoffs so far.

MVP Tier

Ilya Samsonov. Without a doubt, Washington’s best player this series. During five-on-five play, he’s saved 2.78 goals above expected. During penalty kills, he’s saved every shot that has come his way. You can ask nothing more of this player, who has exceeded every expectation, unless your expectations were silly.

A very large gap is here.

I cannot stress enough how big this gap is.

It’s huge.

The Human Shield Tier

Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, and Johan Larsson. The Mobile Infantry of the Caps. They’re getting totally crushed during five-on-five play, but that’s what they’re here to do: eat extremely difficult minutes against the league’s elite scoring lines. They’re getting outscored, but they’re still playing tough and drawing penalties (three by Hathaway, one by Dowd). Hathaway missing that empty net and then committing a penalty in overtime was a heartbreaker, and very likely the pivot of the series.

The “It’s Complicated” Tier

TJ Oshie. I know what you’re thinking. “He’s got five goals! How could he not be at the top?” Because he and his line (see below) are getting destroyed in every on-ice stat. It’s taken elite goaltending (93.2 percent, mostly from Samsonov) to keep him from a negative goal differential.

Evgeny Kuznetsov. Going by every on-ice stat, he’s getting caved in: 34.3 percent goals and 39.6 percent shot attempts. But he’s also finishing his chances with two goals and two assists, which is more than you can say for a lot of players in the next tier.

Marcus Johansson. He’s getting outshot (41.3 percent in attempts) but making up for it by driving quality (50.3 percent in expected goals). He even scored a goal, which is a big deal for a shy boy like him.

John Carlson. Same deal as Oshie. Carlson’s a gifted offensive player as his boxcar stats testify: one goal, four assists. But he’s been on the ice for six Panthers goals during even-strength, and a non-zero amount of those goals could be attributed primarily to his defensive decision-making. I’m still tilted over his bad pinch along the blue line in Game Five.

Nicklas Backstrom. It’s weird. Backstrom is getting blown past during open play, but his finesse and scoring talent are still undeniable. He’s got five points (though three of them from secondary assists), and he’s in the black in goal differential (3 to 2). Still, no Caps line is more on their heels than the one anchored by Backstrom. It’s just that his 95.3 on-ice saving percentage is covering it up.

The “Need More” Tier

Alex Ovechkin. The world’s best scorer has just one goal, but he’s still making plays with a team-high four primary assists. Ovechkin’s individual shooting is 5.6 percent (one for 18 shots on goal), which is about one third where it was during the regular season. It’s obvious he’s playing through something. I’d like to see him better supported and activated in Game Six.

Lars Eller. Eller’s got one goal and two assists, but he’s still been outscored 4-1 during five-on-five play, one of the team’s worst differentials. That’s mostly the result of low shooting percentages.

Conor Sheary. Eller’s linemate, our short king has been Washington’s strongest skater during five-on-five play, driving on-ice shot attempts to 55.9 percent and expected goals to 58.4 percent. Similar to Johansson, he’s especially been successful at getting through the neutral zone and forechecking, creating a couple weak spots for Florida. But the finishing is not there.

Anthony Mantha. Mantha has put the Capitals shorthanded four times, more than any player save Fehervary (a tie). But Mantha has more than offset his discipline issues by drawing five penalties, plus he’s recorded three assists. So while it’s not all bad, he’s still not doing what he was brought here to do.

Connor McMichael. When I say I “need more” here, I’m referring to ice time. McMichael’s been part of the way-too-quiet Eller line, but I really liked his head’s-up play to get the puck to Backstrom in Game Five.

Another very important gap is here.

Below this line, it’s real bad, folks.

Objectively Bad Tier

Justin Schultz, and Trevor van Riemsdyk. They’ve both scored a goal, and they’re both above even in goal differential, but that’s mostly the work of Ilya Samsonov: Caps goalies are stopping 97 percent of Panthers shots when these two are on the ice.

Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen. They’ve been on the ice for a team-high seven Panthers goals, with very little to offset it. It’s a feeding frenzy for Florida’s offense against this pairing, which is very disappointing considering how reliable they were in the regular season.

Martin Fehervary. Hey, maybe it’s not great that five of the six Caps defenders are all the way down here. Fehervary has done little to firm up Carlson’s infirmities, plus he’s been busted for four penalties, sucking the wind out of Washington’s offense. Fehervary hasn’t played much good hockey in calendar year 2022, and it’s hurting the team acutely right now.

The Double V Tier

Vitek Vanecek. Yeah, that didn’t work. In a game and a half, Vanecek saved 2.78 goals below expected, the precise inverse of Samsonov.

Not ranked: Brett Leason (who played sixteen very bad minutes) and Tom Wilson (who played two very good minutes).

Headline photo: Elizabeth Kong/RMNB