Before we talk about the new deals the Caps made this summer, we should note how quiet the team was during free agency. The team signed just one deal during the early-July frenzy: a short-term, league minimum deal. Having restraint during a time of enthusiastic overpayment is itself a victory, and the team’s other deals should keep the team competitive in 2018-19.
After that, things will get messier.
Previously: coaching, departing players
Defenseman Michal Kempny: 4 years, $2.5M
The addition of Michal Kempny in February is probably underrated for how much it helped the Caps. One could argue it saved their season. It certainly saved Kempny’s career – by his own admission.
I love this deal. Kempny, 27, will likely play with John Carlson, but with only a $2.5M cap hit the team should feel free to experiment with different pairings. If, near the end of four years, Kempny is viable only on the bottom pairing, that’d be just fine. It’s hard to go wrong with a modest deal for a reliable player.
Grade: A-
Depth centers Travis Boyd and Nic Dowd
This pair of deals comprises Brian MacLellan’s strategy to replace Jay Beagle as fourth-line center. I fully expect the battle for this lineup spot to be the richest preseason drama we get, and I’ll be thankful for that. Boyd, 24, will finally get his chance in the NHL at a reasonable price ($800k for two years), and Dowd, 28, has incentive to show up big on his one-year, $650k deal.
Fourth-line time during 5-on-5 might be scant, so I suspect that the eventual winner of this duel will come down to who can play special teams and who’s got better, ugh, intangibles. Either way, I see no downside here.
Grade: B
Depth forward Devante Smith-Pelly: 1 year, $1M
There’s good ways and bad ways to indulge the sentimentality that follows the emotional high of a championship. Re-signing Devante Smith-Pelly might have been impulsive, but a short-term, low-cost deal means it can’t hurt the Caps much or for long. In the meantime, the Caps will have a charming, insightful, workmanlike player in their bottom six – and maybe they’ll get another playoff phenom in the 2019 postseason. If not, they’ll have a replacement-level player at a replacement-level cost.
Just keep him off the top line.
Grade: C+
Depth defenseman Madison Bowey: 2 years, $1M
Madison Bowey had very, very, very, rough rookie season, but I’ll be glad to see him back in 2018-19. Out of the top 237 defenseman in the NHL last season, Bowey was in the bottom 20 in shot-attempt percentage and bottom 50 in goal percentage – but when he wasn’t paired with Orpik, Bowey was almost even in shot attempts and in the black in goals. A two-year deal with a $1M cap hit will give Bowey another chance to show off his talents, which might have been underrated. It’s an open question with whom Bowey will take his shifts, and I’ll address that below, but I’m enthusiastic about a sophomore season for Madison.
Grade: B-
Scoring defenseman John Carlson: 8 years, $8M
Here come the big dollars. John Carlson got the eight by eight everyone thought he’d make after recording 68 points, plus another 20 in the playoffs. The big jump in Carlson’s production came from power-play assists (from 12 or 13 in the previous three seasons up to 28 in 2017-18). That probably won’t sustain, but if the Caps stay absurdly productive on special teams, and if Carlson substantially contributes to it, then this deal will be fine. But that’s a big if, and Carlson’s defensive struggles last season add concern.
This deal has tons of risk, but it’s mostly in its back half. In the near term, Carlson will play a big role and eat up a ton of minutes. While I doubt he’ll be able to sustain 68 points, I expect his defensive play to straighten up next season (especially if he shares time with Kempny or Djoos). As for the power play that surfaces so much of Carlson’s output, as long as there’s an Ovi spot and as long as Nick Backstrom is stealth-quarterbacking the PP, Carlson’s numbers will look fine – even if he’s not the one driving the value.
Check back with me in four years.
Grade: C-
Enigmatic forward Tom Wilson: 6 years, $5.2M AAV
There is no justification for Tom Wilson to earn $5.17M annually that doesn’t include a steaming ton of magical thinking. He’s been a depth player for more than 80 percent of his career, and his production in that time has been just slightly above nonexistent. This deal is silly.
But the deal is not the player, and even his critics have to admit that Wilson has been a dynamic complement for a prolific scoring line with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. . . at least when he’s not being a reckless idiot. If Wilson gets a full season in the top six instead of folks like Smith-Pelly, that alone should provide some improvement compared to last season for both him and the team.
But the danger of Wilson’s deal, both in price tag and term, is that it could either a) create a blockade for younger and more interesting wingers like Vrana and Burakovsky, who need opportunities to break out, and who each could reach a ceiling much higher than Wilson’s; or b) become a waste if Wilson is taken out of the top six.
Wilson is paid like a top-line right winger, but his recent point production is under par even for a top-six forward. Being worth his paycheck is the best case scenario here, but if he gets the garbage out of his game he might get close. “I have to be smart about it” is what Wilson told the AP about how his role must evolve, and he’s right. When he’s not getting suspended or putting himself in the penalty box for his recklessness, Wilson really is a solid player – especially in the transition game. He can keep up with Kuznetsov and he can hit as hard as Ovechkin. There’s untapped potential in him, and I wonder if all the antagonism towards him causes some hockey analysts to miss it.
But even if Wilson the player had no downside, his deal still would, and I think it’ll cost the team dearly next summer.
Grade: D+
Veteran defenseman Brooks Orpik: 1 year, ~$1M
And here we are. Brooks Orpik will be 38 years old when the season starts. Just 43 NHL defensemen played at that age in the modern era. Of them, the ones who won’t ever be in the hall of fame tend not to have played more than 50 games. I’m not entirely sure what to make of that context or of the performance bonuses in Orpik’s $1M deal. Orpik could earn an additional half million if he plays more than 40 games. Should he do so, Orpik’s take-home pay will be about what he would have earned had he not been bought out by the Avalanche. That’s curious.
By most metrics, Orpik is one of the worst players in the NHL. His pairing with Madison Bowey was maybe the single worst duo in the league last season. His perceived success in the playoffs was just the result of some very fortunate bounces. And he’s only getting older. In short, he can’t play.
But he’s also an crucial part of the Caps’ culture, and I’ve got an open mind about what this deal might signify. I sincerely doubt that Todd Reirden intends to play Orpik 25 minutes a night like Trotz did last fall. I’m not really sure he’ll play him much at all. I’m willing to entertain the possibility that the Orpik signing is a million dollars against the salary cap for an ersatz coaching position, and the dollars were chosen to make the player whole after the indignity of a buyout.
Maybe I’m being overly hopeful here. Either way, I’m gonna suspend judgment until I see how the team lines up in October.
Grade: TBD
I see why folks were of different minds about how this offseason has gone. The Caps locked up a ton of money in Carlson and Wilson, lost their coach, and lost a future superstar goalie. But they also avoided free agency indulgence, let some of their weakest players go, and filled their depth with smart, modest deals.
The problems that plagued the Caps last season –- a shortage of talent on the blue line running an ineffective strategy, self-sabotaging defensive-zone deployments, and inconsistent scoring lines – should all be gone. Young players like Vrana, Burakovsky, Djoos, and Bowey should all improve in 2018-19. The power play still has a multi-faceted attack, and Ovi’s still Ovi. I expect the Caps to outshoot their opponents and to continue to produce beyond expectation. While the Oshie, Carlson, and Wilson deals will haunt the team in the years to come, the short term looks bright. That doesn’t mean the Caps will win the Cup again, but I think they’ll be much more fun to watch during the regular season.
