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The Caps are a favorite to win the Cup – or a hopeless longshot, depending on who you ask

By Peter Hassett

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April 9, 2018 9:06 am

The Caps hit 100 points and won their division again, but they’re also a weaker team than they were last year. Now, at the dawn of the playoffs, that contradiction is creating some curious contrasts among Cup predictions.

Some models have the Caps as near-favorites to win the Cup; others have them as a longshot.

Let’s start with the betting markets, one of which has the Caps as the eighth most likely team to win the Stanley cup, just ahead of the LA Kings and San Jose Sharks. A $100 bet would yield $1400 if the Caps won.

According to OddsShark, Bovada has the Nashville Predators as the favorite.

Now let’s switch from profit motive to statistical analysis. MoneyPuck, a wonderful resource, has the Caps as a longshot, with a 2.1 percent chance to win the Cup, 15th out of all 16 teams, ahead of just the New Jersey Devils.

Last season, MoneyPuck picked the Capitals to win with a 16 percent chance. This postseason it picks the Winnipeg Jets as Cup favorites. MoneyPuck’s Peter Tanner explains how the model works on the site.

Now to Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com and his “rainbow death crab” visualization.

This model gives the Capitals a 15 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, second only to the Pittsburgh Penguins with 16 percent. The Caps’ chances in this model this season are actually up one percent from last season. McCurdy explains how his model, called Edgar, works on his blog.

Apart from the cold hard numbers, McCurdy’s personal picks are even more favorable.

He picks the Caps to win the Cup.

By now you’re certainly wondering what Peter, Ian, and Keith, a Coin, pick. You’ll have to wait a couple days (while I find Keith, a Coin), but I can tell you now that Keith, a Coin, gives the Caps exactly a 6.25 percent chance to win.

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