Caps efficiently dismantle the Kings: numbers for the morning after

February 6, 2017 8:15 am

On Sunday the Capitals successfully closed out a difficult weekend, beating the LA Kings 5-0 on home ice. They also honored Alex Ovechkin for reaching the thousand point plateau, and TJ Oshie detonated a water bottle. The Caps were as efficient as a surgeon’s scalpel, pouncing on their opportunities and blowing out the Kings despite being dominated in many statistics.

The game was a textbook example of what is known as “score effects.” At the time of the Caps’ third goal, five-on-five shot attempts were neck-and-neck at 18 to 16 in favor of the Kings. By the end of the match the Kings were miles ahead, 65 to 31 — or 32 percent possession for the Caps. That makes this the single worst possession game the Caps have had all year long, although it’s more than excusable given the result.

Key Stats

Over the last five games, Kings goaltender Peter Budaj posted a .954 save percentage at five-on-five. By the end of the second period when he got the hook, the Caps had put four pucks past Budaj on 15 shots (a .733 save percentage). On top of torching Budaj, the Caps put an end to the Kings’ five-game win streak.
Not one single Capital saw positive possession and John Carlson was an otherworldly minus-21 in shot attempts at five-on-five (worst on the team). He was a minus-26 in all situations. Only Dmitry Orlov even came close to breaking even, with a minus-three (or 45 percent possession).
Of the Caps’ five-worst possession games of the season to-date, three of them were blowouts (5-0 win against the Kings, 7-3 win against the Blues, and the 6-1 win against the Hurricanes). Even more astounding is that the Caps are 9-0-1 in their ten-worst possession games to date (not score adjusted). Their only loss was the 8-7 brawl with Pittsburgh.

Unsung Hero of the Game

Tom Wilson gets it tonight, although Ovechkin also had a quietly solid game. While Wilson was underwater in terms of possession (just like everyone else), he saw slightly less than one five-on-five shot attempt against per minute on the ice. Along with Jay Beagle, that was the least on the team. He also limited shots on the PK and had the third-best expected goals-for percentage on the team.

Trend to Watch

The Capitals are on an unsustainable PDO binge. That does not mean the Caps are purely getting lucky, or that they aren’t earning their goals, or that the goalies aren’t genuinely playing lights-out. It just means that they are currently on pace to finish with the best save percentage and the third-best shooting percentage of any team in any season since 2010 (at five-on-five). If you discount Toronto’s 10.7 percent in the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season, the Capitals are shooting behind only the 2016-17 Minnesota Wild, who are on a similar PDO bender.

It’s not that the Caps aren’t playing well, it’s that if they sustain this pace they will finish as the most accurate shooting and stingiest goaltending team of the last seven years. This visual shows just how steep the shooting percentage mountain they have climbed is.