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Undue praise and punishment: Snapshot 4

By Peter Hassett

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December 18, 2016 1:01 pm

On the day of the last Sunday snapshot, the Washington Capitals had 14 wins and 31 standings points, enough to own 4th place in the Metro Division.

But after that, the Caps went on a wild winning streak, adding five wins and 10 standings points, vaulting them up to — 4th place in the Metro Division.

In the standings, hard work just isn’t being rewarded right now. It’s tough to know who’s good, who’s great, and who’s just catching a lot of breaks. The same could be said for players on this Caps team, and that’s the theme of this week’s snapshot.

These are the numbers as of Sunday, December 18, omigosh I need to get a gift for my mom.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Eller 28 310 59.9 +7.7 43.0 97.1
Connolly 17 157 59.3 +5.3 50.8 98.8
Vrana 8 79 58.8 +5.9 52.1 99.9
Williams 29 355 56.5 +3.6 43.3 96.4
Burakovsky 27 324 54.7 +1.4 47.9 99.6
Winnik 21 195 54.6 +1.9 100.0 106.7
Johansson 29 401 54.5 +0.8 79.4 103.5
Oshie 22 275 53.9 -4.0 79.4 107.9
Backstrom 29 387 53.3 -0.9 64.3 103.5
Kuznetsov 29 387 51.8 -3.2 59.5 103.6
Wilson 29 296 51.7 -2.7 65.8 104.3
Beagle 29 277 51.1 -3.4 60.7 102.9
Ovechkin 29 391 50.4 -5.4 55.3 102.3
Sanford 19 180 49.1 -5.1 44.5 99.8

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% Rel SA% GF% PDO
Schmidt 25 349 56.8 +3.4 54.8 100.6
Niskanen 28 446 55.3 +2.1 60.5 102.0
Orlov 29 477 54.3 -0.7 60.1 102.8
Orpik 28 411 54.0 +0.2 62.7 102.3
Carlson 29 53.1 53.1 -1.2 52.8 100.6
Alzner 29 470 50.9 -4.5 59.1 102.6

Observations

  • There is nothing not to love about Lars Eller. In his decidedly third line minutes, Eller has given the Caps a possession boon that has made their depth far more daunting. But with the Caps shooting 4.3 percent while he’s on the ice, there hasn’t been much to show for it. If Barry Trotz decides to spread shooting talent among three lines rather than two, or if Eller gets a chance in the top six, I think it’s reasonable to expect good things.
  • Should we be happy that a depth player like Eller is atop the possession (SA%) stack ranking, or should we be worried that marquee players like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are near the bottom with possession scores of 50.4 to 51.8? In previous years I had been so used to a top-heavy Caps team that fell apart after the second line. This is new for me. Tell me how to feel.
  • There are clearly holes in the game of Andre Burakovsky (54.7 SA%, 47.9 GF%). Alan May’s “one trick pony” critique makes sense, and it’s evident that Dre doesn’t go to the “hard places” where high-danger scoring chances occur. That said, the fundamentals of his neutral-zone game are undeniably strong, and few nominally top-six players can guarantee offensive-zone time like he. But right now Burakovsky is neither a top sixer nor a bottom sixer. He’s a healthy scratch for a few games running. And that’s the coach’s prerogative. But if a player is too timid to broaden his game, taking away ice time altogether might not be the appropriate analgesic.
  • Welcome to the snapshot, Jakub Vrana. The early returns are excellent, but so were the exit polls in Cuyahoga County.
  • Karl Alzner added more than 100 minutes to the sample since our last snapshot. In that time, his on-ice possession dropped 1.4, his relative possession dropped 1.8, his goals percentage dropped 6.3 and his PDO dropped 1.3. If you didn’t already know and love Karl Alzner before this season, if he were just an off-season pick-up, what would you think of a free-agent journeyman D who played just like Karl?
  • Daniel Winnik has been on the ice for 76 opponent shots. Caps goalies have saved every single one. This is sorcery.
  • I think about Evgeny Kuznetsov a lot. He’s had eight points since our last snapshot, five Justin Williams goals and five at even strength, and that’s given me a lot of optimism for an offensive resurgence that might approach what we saw in early 2016, back when Harambe was still alive. But Emmanuel Perry’s shot-quality algorithm suggests that Kuznetsov’s recent explosion hasn’t been driven by quality shots, but rather by luck. This first chart is Kuznetsov’s on-ice goal rate; the second is the expected on-ice goal rate based on the quantity and quality (i.e. location, type) of shots.
  • What does this mean? I don’t know. Hockey is complicated might be a decent takeaway. Another might be that Kuznetsov’s moment as a scoring marvel was fleeting, another thing lost to 2016 like Prince and Vine.
  • Nate Schmidt and Brooks Orpik are a damn fine defensive pairing. Life is weird. The Caps have taken 57.5 percent of the shot attempts in the 282 minutes Orpik and Schmidt have shared. No pairing with more than 30 minutes together has a lower opponent shot rate or opponent expected goals rate. This is a big deal. This seems to be a genuine synergy, wherein both players do better together. Orpik transforms from a 45-percent possession disaster (unadjusted SA%) to a 57 percent stud. Schmidt also benefits, ticking up from 53 percent. This pairing is not merely a mitigation of the Orpik problem; it’s the transformation of a blistering negative into a shining positive. High fives, all around.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.
  • GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.

Headline photo: Amanda Bowen

Stats from Corsica