Photo: Amanda Bowen
The Caps will likely clinch the President’s Trophy within the next week, perhaps before March even ends, and they’ll soon be wrapping up one of the best regular seasons in franchise history. Yet, all is not well in Caps land. Recently, the Caps have struggled both with process and results more so than earlier in the season.
Perhaps they are just waiting to flip the switch when games become meaningful again, or maybe they haven’t been getting enough from certain key players. There’s been some prolonged trends in the team’s game that has raised legitimate concerns about how they’ll fare come playoffs.
But history can show us that there’s also reason to temper those concerns. And, as we’ve tried to note on RMNB throughout the season, and Dan Steinberg put so eloquently, it’s also okay to simply enjoy this regular season success. It’s also perfectly fine to do so while feeling antsy about how this team will perform come mid-April.
And that’s the thing: with it being a given that there is no right or wrong way to be a fan, it’s possible to appreciate this season and acknowledge the reasons that the Caps have a legitimate shot at a deep playoff while also expressing concerns about the team’s recent performance and why that casts doubts upon the team’s chances at playoff success. These two perspectives need not stand in opposition to one another.
Before we jump into the numbers, let’s give the final word to F. Scott Fitzgerald, who can help offer a reminder that it’s possible, to use the parlance of our times, to both find some chill but still keep it 100 about this Caps team:
The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.
Forwards
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Winnik | 12 | 117.7 | 56.4 | 7.0 | 83.3 | 107.2 |
| Williams | 74 | 965.0 | 53.9 | 3.6 | 56.7 | 100.8 |
| Ovechkin | 72 | 1099.0 | 53.2 | 2.8 | 61.5 | 102.2 |
| Kuznetsov | 74 | 1040.0 | 53.0 | 2.4 | 59.8 | 102.2 |
| Backstrom | 71 | 1020.3 | 52.5 | 1.5 | 64.1 | 102.9 |
| Latta | 41 | 334.7 | 52.5 | 1.7 | 52.5 | 100.4 |
| Burakovsky | 71 | 837.7 | 51.7 | 0.4 | 53.3 | 101.0 |
| Oshie | 72 | 995.3 | 51.0 | -0.4 | 62.3 | 102.8 |
| Galiev | 21 | 167.9 | 50.5 | 0.1 | 55.6 | 101.6 |
| Richards | 31 | 296.2 | 49.9 | -0.7 | 46.2 | 99.2 |
| Beagle | 50 | 581.9 | 49.8 | -1.7 | 56.3 | 101.5 |
| Johansson | 66 | 850.1 | 49.7 | -1.9 | 58.6 | 102.0 |
| Chimera | 74 | 822.3 | 48.1 | -4.2 | 50.0 | 100.3 |
| Wilson | 74 | 821.8 | 47.1 | -5.4 | 51.6 | 101.2 |
Defense
| Player | GP | TOI | SA% | rel SA% | GF% | PDO |
| Orlov | 74 | 1115.6 | 53.9 | 3.7 | 58.3 | 102.3 |
| Schmidt | 65 | 1057.8 | 51.4 | 1.1 | 56.5 | 101.3 |
| Niskanen | 74 | 1335.1 | 51.3 | -0.1 | 57.0 | 101.3 |
| Orpik | 34 | 581.8 | 51.1 | -0.7 | 53.3 | 100.3 |
| Chorney | 54 | 647.6 | 50.3 | -2.0 | 57.1 | 103.0 |
| Carlson | 49 | 842.4 | 50.1 | -1.5 | 55.2 | 100.8 |
| Alzner | 74 | 1277.4 | 49.9 | -2.4 | 56.1 | 101.4 |
Observations
- As of the end of Saturday’s loss to the Blues, the Caps score-adjusted shot attempt percentage sat at 51.3 percent. This is 13th in the league. Here’s the 10-game rolling average:
- The past three games were the most encouraging week of hockey the Caps have played in a while. Yes, after beating both Ottawa and New Jersey, the Caps got waxed by the Blues. But this was a night of the results not lining up with the process. Yes, the Blues did win the possession battle (52.3 percent of the shot attempts) and yes, the Caps had some glaring mistakes. But glaring mistakes happen in hockey games. Jake Allen was simply able to cover up the Blues’ mistakes while Philipp Grubauer couldn’t do the same for the Caps. Did the Caps dominate or look particularly great? No. But they played pretty even with a very good Blues team who has a lot more on the line right now. Yes, the scoring dried up, but the Caps shooting at 5v5 (3.1 percent for the week) will not stay this cool for long.
- The Caps current first line of Alex Ovechkin–Nick Backstrom–Justin Williams has a 62.7 percent shot attempt percentage, according to Corsica. This hasn’t shown up on the score sheet yet because the trio hasn’t put one in the back of the net yet despite 37 shots on goal in 58 minutes together. If this line stays together, look for them to pop one or two in this week.
- Due to their struggles as a unit earlier in the season, I had my doubts about the new second line. But the trio of Marcus Johannson-Evgeny Kuznetsov-Andre Burakovsky controlled play, all posting a shot attempt percentage of 56.5 percent or better over the past week. But the puck didn’t go in for them either. The process was really strong with this top-six but the results didn’t come yet. That can happen in this small of a sample. I’d expect TJ Oshie will slot back in to the top six against the Blue Jackets, but don’t let the lack of goals fool you; this top-six performed really well.
- It’s time to give Mike Richards and Daniel Winnik more ice time. The duo has a 55 percent shot attempt percentage at 5v5 according to Corsica. They are regularly getting a few minutes less at 5v5 per game than Jay Beagle, Jason Chimera, and Tom Wilson, but they continue to outperform all three of those guys. There are different ways to divide it up, but the bottom line is Richards and Winnik should be getting third line minutes while at least two of the other trio should be on the fourth line. This would require Johansson to skate on his off-wing, but I’d love to see Marcus skate with Richards and Winnik on the third line.
- I don’t think I dislike the pair of Dmitri Orlov and Brooks Orpik as much as some, but like I said in last week’s snapshot, I’d like to see Orlov reunited with Nate Schmidt and Orpik back with John Carlson. Seriously, Schmidt and Orlov have put on a clinic as a pair this season. They’ve posted as 59.2 percent shot attempt percentage in 318 minutes together at 5v5. As you can see in Micah’s viz below, both Orlov and Schmidt are on the wrong side of 50 percent possession with their current partners. Given that Carlson and Orpik perform fine enough while getting tough assignments as a pairing, there’s no good reason to hesitate reuniting them.
- Schmidt hasn’t been anything near a sharpshooter in his career, but his lack of finishing this season has a good bit of bad puck luck baked into it. He’s shooting just 1.5 percent at 5v5. Say what you want about his shooting abilities, but this ranks 93rd among the 102 defenders who have skated 1,000-plus minutes at 5v5 this season. I think, given his obvious offensive skills, his true shooting ability is above that. Take a Schmidtuation goal before the end of the season to #thebank.
- Mike Weber will get a sweater again soon, but there’s no reason for him to.
- Oshie is not going to score 30 goals this season.
Glossary
- GP. Games played.
- TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
- SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
- GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
- PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.
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