Rolling the Rock: Week 16 Snapshot

February 6, 2016 10:09 pm

Photo: Amanda Bowen

The snapshot is back. We took a two-week hiatus because the Caps played one game over a 74-year period due to the snow and the John Scott Game break. But alas, we are back.

February is the dog days of the hockey season. The excitement of the start of the season has long since worn off, the holidays and Winter Classic have passed, and now we’re waiting for the stretch run and the playoffs. If ever there is a time in a hockey season that a team’s going to be on autopilot as a response to the monotony, this is the time.

If monotony has begun to strike the Caps, you wouldn’t know it from the results, as they are 7-2-1 in their last 10. They’ve found a way to keep rolling the rock. And, more often than not, when the rock returns to the bottom of the hill, two points are in tow.

Let’s do the numbers. They are current as of the completion of Saturday’s win over the Devils.

Forwards

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Williams	50	643.1	54.9	3.9	59.0	101.1
Galiev	14	117.6	54.3	2.8	60.0	102.0
Ovechkin	48	744.3	54.1	3.1	65.0	103.4
Backstrom	47	693.0	54.0	2.4	70.1	104.5
Laich	49	428.0	53.5	1.8	37.5	96.5
Kuznetsov	50	710.7	53.2	1.7	62.5	102.6
Latta	34	290.0	53.0	2.6	50.0	99.6
Burakovsky	47	535.2	52.4	0.1	55.9	101.6
Oshie	50	708.4	51.8	-0.4	63.7	103.4
Johansson	44	582.1	51.4	-0.5	63.6	103.3
Chimera	50	551.6	49.8	-3	52.4	100.5
Wilson	50	565.0	47.5	-5.8	56.8	102.7

Defense

Player	GP	TOI	SA%	rel SA%	GF%	PDO
Ness	8	102.6	57.0	3.3	75.0	107.2
Orlov	50	724.2	56.1	5.7	61.1	102.6
Schmidt	45	767.5	53.2	2.8	60.4	102.0
Chorney	41	489.1	52.0	0.0	62.2	105.2
Niskanen	50	932.9	51.1	-1.6	62.3	103.0
Alzner	50	882.3	49.6	-3.9	60.7	102.8
Carlson	38	672.1	49.6	-2.6	53.2	100.1

Observations

The Caps own 52.1 percent of the shot attempts this season at 5v5 after adjusting for score. This is good for ninth in the league. That’s good. Combine that with an elite goaltender, the top power play in the league, and the fifth best penalty kill, and this team is really tough to beat on a consistent basis.
The 10-game rolling shot attempt percentage is looking good, eh?

My eye test hasn’t been overly impressed with Stan Galiev in the limited chances he’s gotten this season and I think it’s unlikely he becomes a successful NHL player over the long haul. But, in the limited sample of play, he’s second among Caps’ forward in possession and individual shot-attempt generation. I’m not saying give the guy top-six minutes or that he needs a jersey every night, but with Marcus Johasson and Jay Beagle out and the team so far ahead of the rest of the conference, I wouldn’t mind seeing Stan get some longer looks.
The second line of Andre Burakovsky, Justin Williams, and Evgeny Kuznetsov is dynamic in the offensive zone. The goals and the shots come at a furious pace for both teams when this trio is on the ice. The total shot-attempt pace for both teams when the second line is on the ice is 116.4 per 60. To put this in perspective, the Islanders currently lead the league at 109.9. The goal rates are equally ridiculous, as both the goals for and against per 60 are 4.03. I love it. With players this offensively talented, and Braden Holtby guarding the net at the other end, give me all of the up-tempo, chance-for-chance hockey you’ve got. Give it to me straight, no chaser.
One reason this line is so dangerous to trade chances with is the obvious talent of Kuznetsov. He leads the league in primary assists at 5v5. Primary assists are a better indicator of talent than standard assist totals and more repeatable year-to-year. We’d probably all be better served by focusing on goals and primary assists, and acknowledging secondary assists as noise, as Micah McCurdy does.
Burakovsky got hot in a hurry. He’s now above his marks from last season in a lot of categories, including: even strength goals, goals per 60, points per 60, and individual shot attempts per 60. Last season, one gripe I had with Barry Trotz was his hesitation to use Burakovsky regularly despite the fact that he was one of the team’s best forwards. So, credit where credit is due for our great coach. There were times this season when he could have buried Andre in the press box or the team could have sent him to Hershey, but Trotz stuck with Burakovsky and we’re now all reaping all the benefits.
Mike Richards hasn’t played enough minutes to make the chart yet, but we can still talk about him. Through 7 games, he’s rocking a 50.9-percent shot-attempt percentage, minus-2.1 percent relative. I’m rooting hard for this guy, who the Kings threw to the side in a shameful manner. I think he’s looked okay, but I’d much prefer he skate on the fourth line. Feel better, MJ90.
Jason Chimera is almost 37 and still skating like the wind. He has 28 points in 50 games. He’s been very productive and certainly way more productive than I thought he’d be this season. Nine of his points have come on the power play. Hear me out: I can say that he’s been productive and better than I expected, while at the same time say that his production is not likely to continue at this rate. Some of the numbers are not sustainable. Saying this doesn’t take anything away from the great production the Ice Cheetah has posted. He currently leads all NHL forwards with 8.87 points per 60 on the power play (minimum 60 minutes). He’s shooting 25 percent on the power play. His production, especially on the power play, has been marvelous. Just don’t be shocked if it dries up.
Welcome to the snapshot chart, Aaron Ness. He’s been sent back to Hershey and may not return for a bit, so I wanted to throw him in there while I could. It’s nice to know that the Caps can rely on Ness to play third pairing minutes and not be a disaster. Some regression will come calling for Ness, but he acquitted himself well in the limited sample. I’ve touched on this before, but he can skate and pass well, two extremely valuable talents to have on the blue line in today’s NHL.
I’m not sure we can talk about Dmitry Orlov enough. He’s been a possession monster, and he continued to do it when he was thrust into a top-four role. Among the 165 defenders who have skated 500-plus 5v5 minutes this season, Orlov ranks in the top 10 in: shot-attempt percentage, relative shot-attempt percentage, shot attempts against per 60, and points per 60. There’s probably more but I don’t have any Mountain Dew in the house so that’ll have to do for now.

Glossary

GP. Games played.
TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
GF%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.