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Listening, Not Fixing: Week 3 Snapshot

By Patrick Holden

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November 8, 2015 2:41 pm

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Photo: Amanda Bowen

10-3-0. Through thirteen games the Caps are 10-3-0 good for fifth in the NHL with 20 points. The team’s possession numbers are dynamite and their plus-12 goal differential ranks fourth overall. The first snapshot of the season focused on the Caps being who we thought they were (i.e. good) and, two weeks later, that remains true. During an 82-game season, rough patches are inevitable so all these points the Caps have banked so far will come in handy when a cushion is needed.

Often in the snapshot we perform a full weekly physical on the team. We look at all the different parts, point out things that are going really well, but we also diagnose areas of concern and get out our prescription pad to try to find the right remedy.

This week, there’s less prescribing than normal. This isn’t due to a hesitation to diagnose problems when things are going so well, as a team should never get so comfortable that they rest on their laurels and don’t strive to improve. But sometimes it serves to be a listener rather than a fixer. So, today we’ll do more listening to our patient and engaging in a conversation with them, rather than relying as heavily on our prescription pad.

Forwards

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Williams 13 164.21 61.79 8.69 58.82 97.70
Laich 13 103.51 61.57 7.35 20 90.65
Backstrom 10 144.04 60.90 5.01 70.0 101.6
Stephenson 8 60.92 58.76 0.80 0 83.87
Ovechkin 12 184.47 57.94 2.82 65 102.72
Oshie 13 179.73 56.57 1.76 66.67 102
Johansson 13 178.12 55.75 -0.83 64.29 102.52
Kuznetsov 13 188.53 54.05 -1.93 57.89 100.71
Burakovsky 13 137.12 52.17 -4.17 41.67 97.80
Beagle 13 163.64 51.61 -5.01 55.56 101.27
Chimera 13 149.38 51.26 -5.29 40.00 96.61
Wilson 13 149.07 47.73 -9.94 57.14 101.95

Defense

Player GP TOI SA% rel SA% GF% PDO
Chorney 5 36.27 62.05 5.87 75 105.56
Orlov 13 147.08 60.72 7.48 61.54 102.62
Schmidt 8 111.22 60.32 9.56 62.50 103.69
Niskanen 13 229.31 55.52 0.27 60 100.97
Alzner 13 220.53 55.24 -0.16 66.67 101.98
Carlson 13 219.88 50.72 -7.26 52.63 99.17
Orpik 13 224.69 50.60 -7.56 43.48 95.71

Observations

  • The Caps have a (score-adjusted) 55.3 percent shot-attempt percentage, second in the NHL to only the LA Kings. Translation: This Caps team has been a powerhouse through 13 games. Many places on the internet, including here, said before the season that this was one of the best Caps teams ever constructed. They are delivering on that so far.
  • This bullet recognizes just how darn good Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin continue to be. People still not old enough to drink alcohol legally will be telling their grandchildren about how much this duo meant to the franchise.
  • Justin Williams is exactly as advertised. He’s smart, responsible, and the team owns the puck when he’s on the ice. So far, Barry Trotz has remained adamant on keeping Jay Beagle and Jason Chimera together, something I’ve been calling for an end to since the first snapshot. Given that Trotz is keeping them together for now, trying Williams on their wing is a great move. While Beagle and Chimera are above 50-percent possession, they are continually a drag on the team’s overall differential, as indicated by their relative shot-attempt percentages (rel SA%). It was only one game but on Saturday, in Williams’ first night on the line, the trio were the Caps’ three best possession players, leading me to ask this question:

  • I’m not exactly sure what’s going on with Andre Burakovsky, but he hasn’t looked like the same dude as last season. You can point to things like “oh, well he loses board battles” or “he gets bumped off the puck too easily” but I don’t think this is abnormal for a player his age. These things happened last season as well and Burakovsky was still a net positive when he was on the ice. It’s not so far this season. He’s above 50 percent, but he’s gone from being on of the team’s best relative possession players last season to being towards the bottom this season. I’ve officially gone from “he’ll figure it out” to “this bears watching” on my Andre Concern Meter. Hopefully some time alongside Nick Backstrom can be the cure that ails him.
  • Tom Wilson got benched on Saturday night because of some undisciplined play and he continues to be an absolute drag on the team’s possession. Last week, I advocated for giving Wilson better linemates and I’m still standing by this. If some players get their possession numbers consistently defended for the quality of competition they face, then Wilson deserves some benefit of the doubt in regards to the quality of his linemates. After all, quality of competition generally balances out over the course of a season, while the same isn’t always true for the quality of linemates.
  • Due to sample size, Michael Latta hasn’t made the chart yet, but the fourth line just keep on humming, regardless of who centers it. He currently has the best relative shot-attempt percentage among the forwards at plus-9.60 percent.
  • There’s a one week snapshot moratorium on Brooks Orpik. Instead, go read JP on how to fix the team’s Orpickle.
  • Matt Niskanen gets lost in the crowd a bit on the Caps D. Orpik is always a hotly debated player, John Carlson is recognized as an emerging star, and Nate Schmidt smiles so damn much that we can’t help but notice him. But Niskanen has been solid since being signed during the Summer of 2014. He currently leads all Caps defenders in 5v5 ice time and has solid possession numbers. He’s not the most dynamic player on the ice, but he skates well and can move the puck effectively, perhaps two of the most important qualities for a defenseman in the NHL these days. We see you, Matt Niskanen, and we like what you’re doing. Oh, and he and partner Karl Alzner are facing the toughest zone starts of any of the team’s defensive pairings.
  • As of the end of play Saturday, 185 defensemen have played 100-plus minutes of 5v5 play. The Caps have the two best possession players among the group as Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov ranks first and second in shot attempt percentage. In relative shot-attempt percentage, Schmidt ranks fourth and Orlov is 11th. This is a formidable third pairing.

Glossary

  • GP. Games played.
  • TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5 close.
  • SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • rel SA%. The percentage more or less of the overall shot attempts the Caps see with the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench
  • Goal%. Goal percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.
  • PDO. A meaningless acronym. The sum of a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may reflected in goal%.

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